Stud/8 weird spot
 

i never know what to do in spots like this. note that villain started the hand with $693. i don't really have much of a draw and he hit fairly good, but there's so much money in the pot.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($100/$200), Ante $25, Bring-In $25 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (5.50 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (5.50 SB - $550)

Re: Stud/8 weird spot
 

There's $550 in the pot and another $468 to be bet. So you're getting a little less than 2:1 to call down. It may well be that you have something approaching the correct fourth-street equity to call down. The reality of the situation is that you are going to be forced to fold on fifth street quite often. In addition to being a dog, your hand is a playing loser. If the other guy were closer to all-in, I'd probably get it in there.

Re: Stud/8 weird spot
 

You are definetly correct to fold on 4th as you did.

Re: Stud/8 weird spot
 

4th looks good.

I like a fold to the raise on 3rd.

Re: Stud/8 weird spot
 

folding to the reraise on 3rd would be terrible!

Re: Stud/8 weird spot
 

To me this is an easy fold. But since you seem to be very good at this game I guess it's closer than I think and I'm afraid to give advice. Where is this cash game from?

Betgo, to me this is a playable hand in 8-handed stud8. Consider reevaluating your hand standards :P

Re: Stud/8 weird spot
 

I don't think it would be very hard to just figure this out with twodimes and a notepad, just time consuming.

Just assume that we're getting every chip in on 5th no matter the cards and that the opponent never folds. Then calculate the EV of some sample cases and average it out according to frequency of hole cards.

If that turns out to be positive I think it's pretty safe to play on.

Looking quickly at some 5th street scenarios it doesn't seem entirely implausible that it may work out to me. It's pretty hard for the other guy to have a hand strong enough that it would be right to fold with open cards on that street.

Since checkraising and betting fifth largely eliminates the reverse implied odds that is the reason you usually checkfold on 5th I think playing on is a lot more plausible than it might look on it's face.

If you'll estimate your opponents hole card range I can make some rough calculations.

Thinking about it, it's pretty likely that the other guy severly underestimates our strength for high here.

Re: Stud/8 weird spot
 

His range is something like rolled,(JJ)+,(Ace-low), lots of 3-low flush hands, any (baby-baby).

Re: Stud/8 weird spot
 

folding fourth is good, also agreewith djk that folding third would be HORRIBLE

Re: Stud/8 weird spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
His range is something like rolled,(JJ)+,(Ace-low), lots of 3-low flush hands, any (baby-baby).

[/ QUOTE ]Ok. I write equity from 0-1 rather than 0-100 or a fractional number. Since that's the way twodimes puts it out and it saves on pixels.

Rolled, you've got .132. But one of his threes are dead, which drastically cuts down on those possibilities.

Against high pairs you range from .24 (AA) .36, (KK) .40 (JJ-QQ). And that's nine combos of JJ and QQ vs only 6 combos of AA and KK.

Unpaired ace-low ranges from .3 (with a four-wheel and three flush cards) to .4 (with only a three straight and a two-flush).

A553 you have about .38 equity against.

Unpaired lowflush gives you from .39 to .30 (if he has straight and a flushdraw).

Paired 3-flush ranges gives you about .35

Non-flushed, non-paired babies also gives you about .35.

Paired, non-flushed babies give you about .40.

You didn't mention them, but surely A33 must have been a starting possibility as well? Against those you have .40 in equity.

Out of your proposed range there's only 7 combinations where you lose significant money. And only when he's rolled up do you lose big, which is about 2.5 BB. Against the aces you lose 1 SB.

Of course, you're never ahead but, having .40 of the pot is a pretty big win (1.3 SB) and that's going to happen pretty often. In fact you,ve just the equity from JJ and QQ balances out the hits you take against 333 and aces.

Everything else is pure gravy. And against most of those hands you make a fair bit of money from the pot. There's only a few open-ended straights that you lose money against, and then it's not very much.

So to me this seems like a hand you definitely should play. Assuming there's no bug in twodimes S8.

At the very least your loss can only be small. And I doubt you have an average loss here a lot.

I'd definitely like to see a model where OP loses money by raising 4th and betting 5th and 6th against calls 100% of the time. I just don't see it now.