1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

Villian is 33/23, ok lag but not great. Bluffs too much and value bets 3 streets with really marginal hands. For some reason this turn feels like a draw more than a monster, but meh. Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $50.45
BTN: $43.85
SB: $50.25
BB: $56.55
UTG: $50

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($4) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, SB calls $3.50

Turn: ($11) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8.50</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $45 and is All-In</font>, Hero pukes and ???

Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

I dont think this looks like a draw if that was the case Villian would prolly repop the flop. I think this looks like a set that slowplayed the flop and protected the hand on the turn.

Your bet is strong on the turn and I cant see a villian doing this move with worse.

Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

I like a check behind on the turn. As played, I think I get it in there against a LAG as nothing got there on the turn and this is a great spot/nice pot for him to float.

It would be nice to know what villain's flop AF is, because if its high then the flop c/c looks a lot like a slow-rolling flopped str8.

Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

Turn bet is fine as you've got to protect your hand with all the draws on the board, but I would let it go at this point becuase although he could have something like Ac8c, I think that monsters make up a much larger % of his range.

Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

AF?

I most likely fold without seeing him do this with a weakish hand.

Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

Do not believe.

Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

Given your read, I would go with it as it looks really drawy. But this really depends on how tricky he is. If he overthinks him self, I would dump it.

Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

On the turn you have the option to call for $36.50 for a chance to take a pot of $64.50, giving you roughly 1.75:1 pot odds. If you believe Harrington's statement that most players bluff at least 10% of the time, then you can probably place this player on bluffing around 20% of the time. So 20% of the time, he'll be holding something like KQo or AQo or something. 80% of the time, he'll have some legitimate holding--either a draw or a higher pair.

Putting him on 44+ and any draw (both straight and flush) puts you at about equal money. This will be the case roughly 80% of the time. the other 20% of the time, you're looking at more like 70% equity. This gives around 54% equity. With the pot odds you're given, I'd say a call is fine.

However, his flop play was really weak--he very well may be slow playing a set, but with a flush draw on the board, I really can't see him allowing the potential for a free card. If he had a set, he'd definitely be raising instead of merely calling your bet.

I'd actually call this one--the chances of him holding the straight are pretty minimal (98s isn't good enough to justify calling your 3.5BB pfr). He may have gotten nervous about the second spade appearing or not hitting his draw or whatever.

Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

From my esperience at stars nl50 unless this guy is even more aggro and crazy then u explained this it more likely to be a slowed played set or str. Doubt he floats u here with a weak draw on the flop then all of a sudden comes alive on the turn. Hes prob not smart enought to even put u on a range and just decided to spring his trap and hope u call with???? Anyway I think this is a fold.

Re: 1010 facing turn heat - NL$50 6m
 

why did you bet the flop?