embrace the variance or wait for a better spot?
 

Player is a total fish, stats of 92/15 over 100 hands. Gamble now or wait for a better spot?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($345.23)
Hero ($96.38)
BB ($101.50)
UTG ($100)
MP ($313.33)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $4.

Flop: ($11) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7.5</font>, MP calls $308.33 (All-In), Hero ?

Re: embrace the variance or wait for a better spot?
 

better spot

Re: embrace the variance or wait for a better spot?
 

Please don't ever talk about cash games and waiting for better spots. There's no such thing as 'better spot' in a cashgame, only 'yet another spot'. We have bankrollmanagement for these things.

Any specific reads? Flop AF? Over 100 hands you must've seen some of his flop play.

I dislike c-bet size, by the way.

Anyway, I get it in here and expect to be ahead a large amount of the time, I don't see a typical 92/15 valueshoving a made flush here and I think our A and J outs could be good a significant part of the time as well.

Re: embrace the variance or wait for a better spot?
 

Hmmm pot odds of 43%.

Less than 30% winning chances vs sets and made flushes.

Flipping vs. various pair+draw.

Is Hero ever ahead? Prob. not very often absent a read so looks like a fold, unless you pretty heavily discount strong made hands. Who knows.