600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

Never played with the villain, but his mined stats look very loose passive. I just sat.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $234
UTG+1: $441
Hero: $615
Button: $710.85
SB: $682.55
BB: $549

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $21</font>, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($51, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $42</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($135, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $120</font>, Button calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($375, 2 players)


I am thinking the turn bet is kinda bad, but do you fire this river here?

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

Well, if you have mined stats on him, you might as well post those, they can help...

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

We know these guys probably aren't going to be folding a K or A right? So that's a strike against river betting but that turn bet is probably no good against this guy, i like check-fold

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

If he had an A high flushdraw, he just made toppair. That's a reason not to bet. JT also made a straight. Would he have raised Kx by now? If not, the river is an easy check since he could have some Kx hand and is too afraid/passive to bet it. In that case he would call with any K, JT and maybe 50% of his Ax hands.

If you could exclude a K from his range it becomes a little bit tougher, I still wouldn't bluff this probably.

The best line is to check turn imo, he is passive so he will check any draw, any Q or whatever and give yourself a shot a t a free showdown.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

I would never fire a river here!

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

meh, you could get him off a Q if you fire again but im not sure how often he has that. Fire occasionally but check behind should be standard, especially since it wasnt something like a J or a T that fell, or a diamond.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

on a board this heavy, most LAPs manage to minraise the turn or something if they have Kx which is not full - so i tend to discount that part of his range somewhat if not fairly heavily. i do not believe he folds FDs and other decent 15%+ draws (oesds) on the turn because he is LAP. i also think that some of the time you definitely have to expect a call from Qx even on the river from a guy like this.

ok so, hands that will certainly call a river shove (inc. combinations):

AQs - 2
AJd-A2d - 10
KQs/KQo - 16
JTs/JTo - 16
88 - 3

(50 total combos)

hands that will usually fold to a shove (note that he could have additional weaker hands depending how loose he is preflop):

T9d - 1
QJs-Q8s - 16
QJo-Q9o - 36
JJ-99 - 18

(71 total combos)

you have about $440 left in a $380 pot so your only move is to shove, but given it is CO vs BTN and that these guys are showdown monkeys usually, i think you should fold. getting him off Qx is certainly going to be difficult, and you never fold Ax+. if there were slightly more combos of Qx- i would probably shove pretty quickly vs everybody.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

and the turn bet is very bad.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

jfish, totally disagree, hes gonna have alot more missed diamonds than just T9d and for that (the fact that we actually have sd value) makes me want to check here as a default.

Re: 600NL: To fire a 3rd?
 

hmm, maybe im wrong given we bet pot on the turn and other than T9s, J9d the other diamond draws are all to lower flushes (except A hi but they aint folding now) that he would fold more often on the turn