25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

First the hand

PokerStars Game #11702263380: Hold'em No Limit ($25/$50) - 2007/08/26 - 13:08:28 (ET)
Table 'Dembowska' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: $tinger 88 ($4950 in chips)
Seat 4: louisianaboi ($2896 in chips)
Seat 5: sweetluvin7 ($3788.50 in chips)
$tinger 88: posts small blind $25
LittleZen: is sitting out
louisianaboi: posts big blind $50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to $tinger 88 [9c 9h]
LittleZen leaves the table
sweetluvin7: raises $100 to $150
$tinger 88: raises $350 to $500
louisianaboi: folds
sweetluvin7: calls $350
*** FLOP *** [2s As 4s]
$tinger 88: checks
sweetluvin7: checks
*** TURN *** [2s As 4s] [9d]
$tinger 88: bets $750
sweetluvin7: calls $750
*** RIVER *** [2s As 4s 9d] [Ts]
$tinger 88: checks
sweetluvin7: bets $2538.50 and is all-in
$tinger 88: calls $2538.50


Now my thoughts - I'm putting him on a weakish ace here. I think this range is skewed toward suited aces because he may fold weak offsuit aces preflop. I think he'd check back Ax7s on the river or at least bet smaller, and I really don't see KsJx or something taking this line. Thus, I call. Thoughts?

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

I've played a lot vs sweetluvin and I really think he checks behind on the river with any moderate showdown value. He can be very donkish and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him show up with KsTx or something.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

Just wondering why you feel he doesn't think a weak Ace has showdown value? Why would he turn Ax7s into a bluff?

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

Who said he would turn Ax7s into a bluff

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering why you feel he doesn't think a weak Ace has showdown value? Why would he turn Ax7s into a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

I meant just a weak Ace (misread OP's thought).

If he does infact have a weak ace and shoves this river, we cannot consider it for thin value...

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

How much do you know about the guy? It's 3-handed, he doesn't have a full buy-in, is he a regular?

I'm not sure that I agree with the range you're putting him on, i mean would he 4-bet KK-JJ with possible spades preflop everytime here? If not, is it not likely that he checks the flop w/ that kind of hand.

What about AxQs, i could very well see him checking that hand behind on the flop cause if he's ahead you are probably drawing very thin.
If he puts you on the kind of hand that you have, checking behind on the flop would seem to be the correct thing to do.

That said, I'm not saying that i think you were wrong to call, altough it's probably marginal. He could very well have the kind of hand that you're putting him on and since your line looks really weak it might be a good opportunity for him to bluff.

What kind of hand do you think he needs to have to make a valuebet of this size? As i said, i think it's marginal but I'm leaning towards a fold here.

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true, and even if it was, sweetluvin sucks a lot so it wouldn't be that relevant

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

he's a regular and capable of lots I think, sorta donkish but I think he can turn Ax with no spade into a bluff.

KOD,

when you say he will check back with moderate showdown value, do you consider A7 no spade a hand with showdown value?

Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true, and even if it was, sweetluvin sucks a lot so it wouldn't be that relevant

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think he should never been bluffing here? Becuase he never ever ever has a hand without showdown value. Don't you think that might be a recipe for suicide v. Stinger?