Why will the dollar rally?
 

Post your thoughts. I've been short the dollar since mid summer and I want to lever up. Someone tell me why this could potentially be a bad idea, I want to see if I'm missing anything.

Re: Why will the dollar rally?
 

If the employment numbers look great tomorrow the dollar will rally (even though I just heard Cramer say it is an irrelevant indicator).

Jimbo

Edited:

If jobs come in at closer to 100K than 85K the market should rally and I suspect the dollar will as well.

Re: Why will the dollar rally?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Post your thoughts. I've been short the dollar since mid summer and I want to lever up. Someone tell me why this could potentially be a bad idea, I want to see if I'm missing anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rate cuts are now less expected. Therefore the dollar, which had started to price in many rate cuts, may start to rally.

Re: Why will the dollar rally?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Someone tell me why this could potentially be a bad idea

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone can tell you unless we know the timeframe you are trading and your objectives for this particular trade.

Re: Why will the dollar rally?
 

I think the nonfarm payrolls will decide where the dollar heads next. When I traded FX, I always saw nonfarm payrolls as a very volatile moment in the currencies.

If nonfarm payrolls are up, I expect the dollar to rally. My prediction is that nonfarm payrolls will be up this month and we could see a pullback in the EURUSD. I don't think that would be the bottom of the dollar fallout, but I think it could be a break among all the terrible news of the subprime crisis.

**I could be totally wrong, so take my prediction for what it is worth.

Re: Why will the dollar rally?
 

A bigger concern could be the magnitude of the rally, given the steadily depleting pool of eligible buyers for the various tight-stop shorts to sell to.

Re: Why will the dollar rally?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Post your thoughts. I've been short the dollar since mid summer and I want to lever up. Someone tell me why this could potentially be a bad idea, I want to see if I'm missing anything.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd be scared as hell of going short the dollar at this point, largely because everyone who has an opinion on the matter either (a) wants to go short or (b) already has. And every single one of those people will have to either (a) buy those bucks back themselves or (b) be forced to do so, if and when the trade starts moving against them.

More succinctly: As I remember reading many years ago in an issue of Barron's, "If the majority were right, the majority would be rich."

Mook

Re: Why will the dollar rally?
 

Because those who have been holding a short for the last year think this is a good time to take profits.

Re: Why will the dollar rally?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If jobs come in at closer to 100K than 85K the market should rally and I suspect the dollar will as well.


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That may have been the shortest rally in market history. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Jimbo

Re: Why will the dollar rally?
 

wtf... there has been so much good news.. this recession [censored] is gonna be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even the real disposable income numbers were really, really good. As soon as I free up the cash from my mutual fund I'm jumping into AMD, DELL, and maybe a retail ETF (which has been getting hammered all year).