Macau 15k Hand
 

History:

The table is playing extremely loose passive. It was unreal, we were often getting 5/6 way limped pots, and at least 3 guys on the table were huge stations with no clue.

My image is TAG. I haven't opened a ton of pots, but when i do i always C bet and haven't had to show my cards yet. In the last half hour i raised pre, got called by Joe Hachem and bet on a 5A9J flop and turn then check folded a 2 river.

I also led into 3 players on a 239 flop got called and bet J turn and got a fold.

The villain in the hand is scott, a 30ish guy i've been talking to casually the whole tournament. He seems like a nice guy, and seems pretty recreational. He has been tight passive with raises pre flop, and has been limping behind limpers and calling raises some but not much. I haven't seen him get aggressive much post.

One hand i did see him play he raised KK pre, got called by station, flop Q84 rainbow, he check calls, turn Q he check calls, river blank check check. After the guy mucks Scott says something like "phew, that Q was no good, i gotta call you on the river though if you bet though."

The other players in the hand seem really spewy/stationy.

I hold 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the cut off. Table is 8 handed.

Blinds 50/100
Other players have ~15k ish.
Me: ~15.5k
Scott: ~16.5k

Preflop: UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, UTG+2 raises to 350, 1 fold, Scott calls, i call, button folds, blinds fold, both limpers call.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (Pot 1900)
Checks to me, i bet 1600, folds to Scott. Scott thinks for a bit, counts out 1600, and throws it in.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Pot 5100)
Scott checks, i bet 3600. This time he tanks a bit longer, counts out the chips and calls.

River:J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot 12,300)
Scott checks, i think for about ~10 seconds, count my chips, and move in.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

i think u could bet bigger on the turn so the river shove is more natural...but the hand seems standard to me.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

how else could u play it

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

This sounds really nitty but I think I want to check river

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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This sounds really nitty but I think I want to check river

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b/f 1/2 pot > check.
I agree with chewy.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Anyone else think preflop is like really really enh?

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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Anyone else think preflop is like really really enh?

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Yes

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

re pf: w/e, it's live, it's suited, multiway, position, it's live, he's probably bored, 150bb deep, and it's live.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

bet 6-7k on river might be better.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I fold preflop almost always. As played, I take the exact same line.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

its ok; any bet size adjustments that seem reasonable have already been stated above, nh.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

i think live a smaller bet on the river is much better....

unless you are bluffing.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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i think live a smaller bet on the river is much better....

unless you are bluffing.

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I think you're bluffing on this river frequently here. If we're discounting a boat because we think he would have bet the river, what is the purpose of the bet -- to get looked up by AQ (not happening given your description of the Villain)? To fold out a bigger flush? To get action from a 7, 6 or 3 high flush? I would never bet the river for value here, I don't think I like (but don't hate) jamming as a bluff (especially given the way the guy played the KK hand -- c/c'ing with an overpair, expressing willingness to call on the river because he had to -- he could easily play a bigger flush the same way here, but another flush is always very unlikely).

Unless the limpers have shown a propensity to limp/reraise, I call all day here pre.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Todd,
Bluffing to fold out a higher flush seems a bit crazy

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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Todd,
Bluffing to fold out a higher flush seems a bit crazy

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We're never going to survive, unless we get a little bit crazy.

I said I didn't like it, but don't hate it either. The reasons I don't hate it is it's live, it's a big buy-in event, you have a recreational player, he can convince himself to fold if his tournament life is on the line, we could easily show up with QJ or 44 here given our line, our image is tight.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Todd,
I agree about our image but given the specific villain I would expect him to put in a raise earlier with the Ace or K high flush. I think a boat is way more likely for him than a big flush. I think a bluff could get him to muck the 9 or ten high flush and thats it. Bluffing here is way too thin I think the river is a pretty easy check if you were deeper you could bet like 5k and fold to a shove but I hate bettinf 5k and folding to a min raise so I would check here.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Guys a couple other notes that have come up from discussion:

Preflop: Both limpers were incredibly awful/spewy/stationy post flop, one to the point that he calls a big check raise on the turn on a AT94 two spade board with J5ss (after limping pre) then rivers a 8s and when villain bets 2k he just calls in position (HU pot.) I promise if you were there you'd think pre flop is standard, but of course online i'm always folding.


Some other players thoughts:

Timex: Shove river.
Alan Sass: Shove river.
Frank: Shove river.
Joe Hachem: Always check back river. I then asked him how big a flush he is shoving there, and he said he's even checking back an A high flush on that river.
Tufat23: Bet/call river for like 3-4k. If villain INSTA shoves think about folding.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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Joe Hachem: Always check back river. I then asked him how big a flush he is shoving there, and he said he's even checking back an A high flush on that river.


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lol

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I think that your push gets called with a very small percentage of hands you beat (KsJ and AsJ, specifically) and a much bigger chunk of hands that beat you (all FHs, A high flush + K high flush). The only hand I see folding here is QsXs. Maybe.

Therefore, either check or make a small bet, the small bet intending to fold to a RR because pushing the full amount doesn't maximize value against a large enough range to maximize value overall.

Barry

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Hmmm if alan sass says shove river I prob need to re-evaluate because he's pretty much always right about everything.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Given your description of villain, I think the river might be a check. His comment during his KK hand of "I would've had to call you on the river" makes me think that he has a tough time getting away from big hands.

It seems to me like his range includes a non nut flush, nut flush, AQ, KQ, QJ, K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10, A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J, 44. Of these, it seems like the only hand that calls a push on the river that you beat is possibly A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J and possibly AQ. I guess I'm not really sure whether your play on the river is a bluff or a thin value bet.

Do you think you can get him to lay down a better flush, and do you think you can get him to lay down the nut flush?

Or is my thinking wrong, and the real question that I should be asking is how much can we get AQ or AJ to call on the river?

Help me out here.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I play the same if I call pre

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I bet about 11-1200 on the flop, 2300ish on the turn and prolly 3k on the river... I almost always prefer to keep the pot smaller than you did here

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I swear I put in a reply here last night, but I'm with Eagles on this I don't see him ever calling with a hand you beat here and he could definitely have a higher flush or even boat now based on description, so I think you need to check behind.

If we're deeper, bet/fold.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Given what we know about Scott, his calls on the flop and turn mean he had either trips of flush. If he had trips, he just turned ahead on the river, and even if he has a flush, and even if he could call with raggs like 2-3s, you're behind (as there are 4 spades above your 8 and four below, so the median hand would be 9 or T high). This said, we can probably discard the ace-high, as he would have bet it. King high maybe too ...
Anyway, the only "likely" hands you beat are 6-4 and 6-7 of spades. So the question is whether you can bluff him or not, not whether you will value bet.
I would tend to think he has rather flush than trips, so maybe you can make him fold most flushes by bluffing all-in on the river ... I guess this was the meaning of your bet ? And what did he do ? Did he fold and show a T-high flush ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I hope I don't have everything wrong ... looking forward to know the end of the story [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

not sure i like it, against described villain, im not sure he ever calls with a worst hand except like AsJ or something, i think i bet/fold small.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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not sure i like it, against described villain, im not sure he ever calls with a worst hand except like AsJ or something, i think i bet/fold small.

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This might actually be better than just checking since we know we're beat since he can't run an elaborate bluff here.

I just hate shoving because 99.999% of the time you're ahead you take it down without showdown (does have value IMO) and 100% of the time you're beat you get stacked, so I mean, I think shoving is hugely -EV

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

preflop seems really miserable imo and really is the most glaring part of the hand. i think bond does this too much whenever i read his live reports.

by all means continue if you have a hold of the table and are playing really well (eg a good version of Mohammed Kowssarie), but otherwise it just serves as overly loose passive and not really suitable given the game conditions.

and to elaborate, when it feels like the optimal line against these players is Jared's suggestion imo (bet small all three streets), then preflop cant possibly be optimal when its guaranteed to be that multiway

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

All,

I'm pretty open minded about whether pre flop is good/bad, but i really can promise at least two players in this hand were abysmal stations.

Some other factors to think about:

Live players are obsessed with protecting their hand. I think if he has a set he almost always bets the flop since i'm not PFR and has no reason to think i'll bet for him. I also think if he has a flush that's not the nuts he's pretty damn likely to either bet flop, check raise flop, or check raise turn.

Conversely, live players are obsessed with the slow play. If he has the nuts he very well may check it all three streets, and he might perceive K high flush as basically the nuts.

I think it's quite possible he check called two streets with QJ. I also think it's quite possible he flat called KK with Ks pre flop and check called two streets.

Sass also brought up the fact that the J hitting river isn't always a bad thing, since he may show up with KsJ or AsJ. Obviously though, it's not our favorite card.

There's been some good discussion here from a number of players i respect, and i'm still pretty undecided.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I don't think preflop is that bad I would rarely fold 86s and never fold 78s.
Do you think he three bets QQ/JJ pre? Do you think he calls QJ pre? I think if he had a better flush you think he would riase somewhere and with a set or qj you think he would bet the flop. I think we are good too often here and people suck enough to shove here. Seems decent over a small enough smaple isn't a good enough reason to think he won't call the river with AQ or KQ or something.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

He may very well be getting to the river with KKs, KsJ, AsJ, etc. but is he going to call an all-in here with it?

He doesn't seem like a player that would call his off his "tournament life" on such a board facing your 3 barrel.

I don't know, I just think it's way way more likely he has you beat than he calls when he doesn't.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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This sounds really nitty but I think I want to check river

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Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

end thread at ansky plz,. some of you are insufferable nits.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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This sounds really nitty but I think I want to check river

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that does sound really nitty, and I'm king nit

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I dunno, I mean almost always playing it the same, but I can't help but feel in the backwards world of live poker that you're rarely getting called by anything worse than a flush here, and that it's possible this bet is closer to a bluff than value bet, even against this guy. I think betting smaller is the way to go and folding to a raise, but even checking behind doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.

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This sounds really nitty but I think I want to check river

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that does sound really nitty, and I'm king nit

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HU4NITS? j/k I'm way too nitty to play HU

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

i think if people don't want to shove, that checking this river would be quite an absurd leak. how could bet/folding ever have a worse expectation vs his range(s)?

in fact, if someone good at math(read:mikej) could come in here and figure out how often he needs to call a shove vs how often he needs to call 4500 w/ qx to make the latter more profitable, i would not be surprised if because he folds a queen like always to our shove - and that bet/folding X amount of chips would be better than a shove by a long shot.

as i said in my first post however, i think the turn bet should be bigger to make the river shove more natural. kindv hard to figure out how to size bets perfectly ahead of time w/o the #'s in front of our faces tho. =[

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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i think if people don't want to shove, that checking this river would be quite an absurd leak. how could bet/folding ever have a worse expectation vs his range(s)?

in fact, if someone good at math(read:mikej) could come in here and figure out how often he needs to call a shove vs how often he needs to call 4500 w/ qx to make the latter more profitable, i would not be surprised if because he folds a queen like always to our shove - and that bet/folding X amount of chips would be better than a shove by a long shot.

as i said in my first post however, i think the turn bet should be bigger to make the river shove more natural. kindv hard to figure out how to size bets perfectly ahead of time w/o the #'s in front of our faces tho. =[

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This is certainly true and why I said in my 2nd post, I guess betting HAS to be better because if he shoves you know you're beat.

I actually do this sometimes and it looks like I'm a huge donk to the rest of the table, I'm sure. This could be a good thing too, though.

I bet if I looked over my HHs I could find a few spots where I bet/folded small thinking he has to call with anything decent he had to begin with, but he certainly won't shove, and I can fold to the shove.

It sucks to do it but checking behind is losing value and a leak for sure, even if you look like a huge [censored] moron bet/folding (which as I said can certainly be a good thing, as well).


EDIT: Also, I've started liking to do a similar thing with min or mini-raising rivers for value.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

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Live players are obsessed with protecting their hand. I think if he has a set he almost always bets the flop since i'm not PFR and has no reason to think i'll bet for him. I also think if he has a flush that's not the nuts he's pretty damn likely to either bet flop, check raise flop, or check raise turn.

Conversely, live players are obsessed with the slow play. If he has the nuts he very well may check it all three streets, and he might perceive K high flush as basically the nuts.


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Why are you complicating things with broad assumptions about "live players?" (btw, is the definition of a "live player" someone who doesn't make his living playing internet poker?) Based on your original description of your opponent, it's a clear value-bet on the river, and if you want to simplify the hand and generally play it better, do what Waco said and keep the pot smaller.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

am i the only one who wants to make it like 1650 preflop?

edited to say 1650

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I think the problem with shoving this river is that you are turning a hand with a lot of value into a total bluff. It is true that the villain said he would have had to call a bet on the river in the previous hand but there is NO indication that he would stack off a 150bb stack with a hand that you beat. There is a big difference between calling a bet and calling an All-In for what basically amounts to his entire stack. I think in a lot of cases you are still good here and think that betting for value would be much more profitable in the long run. I do not like putting your tourney life on the line in this situation. There is a big difference between a 40BB stack that most of us are used to online and the 150bb stack that you are playing. In the end, Joe Hachem's comment may not be as bad as people are making it out to be. What hand that was in his range does Bond beat? Which of these are calling? Very few. Which hands that beat Bond are folding? How about calling? I would say more are going to call than are going to fold.