Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

its ok; any bet size adjustments that seem reasonable have already been stated above, nh.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

i think live a smaller bet on the river is much better....

unless you are bluffing.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think live a smaller bet on the river is much better....

unless you are bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're bluffing on this river frequently here. If we're discounting a boat because we think he would have bet the river, what is the purpose of the bet -- to get looked up by AQ (not happening given your description of the Villain)? To fold out a bigger flush? To get action from a 7, 6 or 3 high flush? I would never bet the river for value here, I don't think I like (but don't hate) jamming as a bluff (especially given the way the guy played the KK hand -- c/c'ing with an overpair, expressing willingness to call on the river because he had to -- he could easily play a bigger flush the same way here, but another flush is always very unlikely).

Unless the limpers have shown a propensity to limp/reraise, I call all day here pre.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Todd,
Bluffing to fold out a higher flush seems a bit crazy

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Todd,
Bluffing to fold out a higher flush seems a bit crazy

[/ QUOTE ]

We're never going to survive, unless we get a little bit crazy.

I said I didn't like it, but don't hate it either. The reasons I don't hate it is it's live, it's a big buy-in event, you have a recreational player, he can convince himself to fold if his tournament life is on the line, we could easily show up with QJ or 44 here given our line, our image is tight.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Todd,
I agree about our image but given the specific villain I would expect him to put in a raise earlier with the Ace or K high flush. I think a boat is way more likely for him than a big flush. I think a bluff could get him to muck the 9 or ten high flush and thats it. Bluffing here is way too thin I think the river is a pretty easy check if you were deeper you could bet like 5k and fold to a shove but I hate bettinf 5k and folding to a min raise so I would check here.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Guys a couple other notes that have come up from discussion:

Preflop: Both limpers were incredibly awful/spewy/stationy post flop, one to the point that he calls a big check raise on the turn on a AT94 two spade board with J5ss (after limping pre) then rivers a 8s and when villain bets 2k he just calls in position (HU pot.) I promise if you were there you'd think pre flop is standard, but of course online i'm always folding.


Some other players thoughts:

Timex: Shove river.
Alan Sass: Shove river.
Frank: Shove river.
Joe Hachem: Always check back river. I then asked him how big a flush he is shoving there, and he said he's even checking back an A high flush on that river.
Tufat23: Bet/call river for like 3-4k. If villain INSTA shoves think about folding.

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

Joe Hachem: Always check back river. I then asked him how big a flush he is shoving there, and he said he's even checking back an A high flush on that river.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

I think that your push gets called with a very small percentage of hands you beat (KsJ and AsJ, specifically) and a much bigger chunk of hands that beat you (all FHs, A high flush + K high flush). The only hand I see folding here is QsXs. Maybe.

Therefore, either check or make a small bet, the small bet intending to fold to a RR because pushing the full amount doesn't maximize value against a large enough range to maximize value overall.

Barry

Re: Macau 15k Hand
 

Hmmm if alan sass says shove river I prob need to re-evaluate because he's pretty much always right about everything.