Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

What does everyone think of this line? I dont think arizona is any better than SF, who was beaten handily last week. Does home field make up that much difference in this game. And is this a game where people expect the line to move towards -7 pitt? Neither cardinals QB moves too well, and I would expect pitt to bring the "noise" (wedding crashers) all game...

Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

home field gets 3.5 points in making the line ... so look at it as pitt -10.5 at home and -7 on the road

Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

Pitt needed some pretty screwy scoring to beat the Niners by the margin they did. The line opened at 5 and I think that's the right line and got on Pitt immediately because I expect a huge middle to open up. I'm looking to middle out at 7.5 and think there's a pretty good shot I get to do so.

Same idea with GB -1.5 (and I'm a little upset at myself for not getting on GB -1).

Edit: By the way, if Warner's going to get playing time this week, I like AZ +5 or more, so if the line hits 7 or 7.5 I'll both middle and add onto my AZ position.

- C -

Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, if Warner's going to get playing time this week, I like AZ +5 or more, so if the line hits 7 or 7.5 I'll both middle and add onto my AZ position.



[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

yeah, I had pitt last weekend.... they have been good for double digit wins, much like NE.

Might stay close for the 1st half, but I think pitt will win handily in the end. AZ wont be able to put enuff points up to keep it close

Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

PSU I dont understand what you mean when you say "middle out"
Are you going to continue to bet Pitt between those lines or hedge yourself with a ARI at plus 7.5?
I think I am confused as to what middling means.

Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

One unit Pitt -5
One unit AZ +7.5 (assuming it gets there)

Vig is 0.1 units, so I lose 0.1 units unless Pitt wins by 6 or 7 at which point I win 2 units.

That's a bit expensive, but I think the line's right and 6 and 7 are obviously important scores that are easy to hit.

- C -

Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

"home field gets 3.5 points in making the line ... so look at it as pitt -10.5 at home and -7 on the road"

This is incorrect. If a team is laying 7 on the road, in theory thay are a 10 point fav. on a nuetral field and would lay 13 at home. If you use 3.5 points, they would be -10.5 on a nuetral field and -14 at home

Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

People who are pimping Pitt right now are already late to the party. There's absolutely no value on Pitt -6/-7, as that's about where the line should be.

I have Arizona and SF ranked pretty closely as far as power rankings go -- they're pretty much equal. Last week Pitt was the best value on the board, imo, as you could get them at -8.5/-9. Adjusted for neutral field, Pit was favored by -5.5/-6 over SF, whom they were clearly superior than. Now, against an AZ team who's ranked about the same as SF, Pit is favored by -9/-10 adjusted for a neutral field, so it's pretty easy to see that this is a pass.

I haven't done any analysis on the O/U, so I can't offer an opinion on that, but the only profitable side on this game is setting up a middle*, which has already been discussed in this thread (*if the line continues to climb high enough, then there may actually be value on AZ, but I don't anticipate this happening). And it's obviously too late to set up a middle now.

Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
 

[ QUOTE ]
home field gets 3.5 points in making the line ... so look at it as pitt -10.5 at home and -7 on the road

[/ QUOTE ]


Somebody already pointed it out but it should really be highlighted because this is really wrong.

If you assume 3 points for home-field adv then:
PIT -7 if they play at AZ
PIT -10 vs. AZ on a neutral-field
PIT -13 vs. AZ if they play at PIT.


Also, some arguments could be made that a team traveling pretty much from one coast to another has a slightly tougher time. Although that might be made up if there's a lack of super-raucousness in AZ compared with some other NFL environments. I'm not really sure.

It seems like a lot of points to be giving up 3 time-zones away against an AZ team that is probably closer to mediocre than people think. PIT's hot start perhaps has them somewhat more over-valued than they deserve to be.

I think there might even be value on betting the AZ money-line on this one.
Bet the somewhat-less-than-mediocre team at home against the better-than-medicore team that the public is super-duper in love with.