Rate this bluff 10/20
 

Opponent is defenitlyhot on the OnGame network. He is IMO very good, aggro, reads hands well, pretty tricky. We have some history with bluffs and stuff, and he has been getting the better of me (though honestly he's probably held over me as well). This session I've already stacked him once after flatting his button raise from BB with 99, CR 723 twotone flop and getting it in against his 75. So he doesn't give me a ton of credit.

Anyway stacks are like 2,7k but not too relevant.

4handed, he limps SB, I make it 60 with K8o, he calls. Flop is A92 rainbow, he checkcalls 100. Turn is an 8 which brings a flushdraw, check check. River is an offsuit 7. He bets 202 into 320 , I raise to 750.

Thoughts?

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

poo poo

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

just call is better because the only hands he folds are worse, unless he has 9x a ton.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

So anyway IMO there are two good thinigs about this bluff.
1. He doesn't have a very strong hand here most likely.
2. Noone ever bluffs in these spots, which he knows.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

What did u put him on when u raised him? a weak ace, a nine? I think its totally a call or fold but not to sure what he could have that he calls the flop with and bluffs the river, maybe a wheel gutter. Your call % should be about the same with k high as a pair of eights. 2 things i'd have to know about him to make a better decision: Is he tricky enough to call the flop with complete air, just to bluff on a later street? And do you think he'd limp 22 here? I'm very curious about the results here. And to answer your question i'd give your bluff a 4/10 because i really don't see him having a 9 here and you look very weak.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
So anyway IMO there are two good thinigs about this bluff.
1. He doesn't have a very strong hand here most likely.
2. Noone ever bluffs in these spots, which he knows.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't need a very strong hand to call here.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

I think this is fine. If he is smart and you have a lot of history you have to mix it up and bluff in this spot. A lot of guys autocall an ace here but he sounds like a guy against whom this move makes sense.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

Honestly wtf are you guys putting him on that this is a good move? He basically never (imo) has TT-KK here, he rarely has 9x, he's not folding an A most of the time, and if he's a good hand reader he actually might 3bet bluff you here with worse.

Keep in mind we do have a very good pair on this board, all things considered.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

xorbie it is obvious that villain's hand is an ace 80% of the time. Villain knows that we know that. In this situation we need to be bluffing against a thinking villain. If we never bluff he can lay down the ace when we raise.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
So anyway IMO there are two good thinigs about this bluff.
1. He doesn't have a very strong hand here most likely.
2. Noone ever bluffs in these spots, which he knows.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I am not sure if it is EV+ in a vacuum but it is certainly not bad.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

i think it's thin because you're representing 56 or JT. he wouldn't expect you to slowplay (after not checking the flop) a set, and it's unlikely you pot controlled a 1pair hand then went for thin value raise.

I think a call is better then a raise in this spot.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]

2. Noone ever bluffs in these spots, which he knows.

[/ QUOTE ]
seriously? It's BvB, people make all sorts of retardo bluffs

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
xorbie it is obvious that villain's hand is an ace 80% of the time. Villain knows that we know that. In this situation we need to be bluffing against a thinking villain. If we never bluff he can lay down the ace when we raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
No. This dynamic would have to be repeated countless times before we could get exploited by "never bluff raising". Fact if if you pot controlled 1 pair on the turn then hit 2pair on the river it's a great spot to go for a value raise since villain will bet/call 1 pair all day. Along those lines, it's a bad bluff, since people will continue to bet/call all day

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
xorbie it is obvious that villain's hand is an ace 80% of the time. Villain knows that we know that. In this situation we need to be bluffing against a thinking villain. If we never bluff he can lay down the ace when we raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often are going to continue to burn money trying to bluff villain off Ax before you hit two pair/set and then burn even more money by not betting the turn?

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

You should really post this hand again as villain holding A5.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should really post this hand again as villain holding A5.

[/ QUOTE ]
people would say:
Wtf are you doing pre, limp/calling A5o vs an aggro bb is just burning money, either raise in or open fold if he's that good.
then, they'd say, why are you betting the river, he either pot controlled an ace on the turn and you're value betting for him or he has less then that and cant call

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should really post this hand again as villain holding A5.

[/ QUOTE ]
people would say:
Wtf are you doing pre, limp/calling A5o vs an aggro bb is just burning money, either raise in or open fold if he's that good.
then, they'd say, why are you betting the river, he either pot controlled an ace on the turn and you're value betting for him or he has less then that and cant call

[/ QUOTE ]


and then they`d say: now fold.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should really post this hand again as villain holding A5.

[/ QUOTE ]
people would say:
Wtf are you doing pre, limp/calling A5o vs an aggro bb is just burning money, either raise in or open fold if he's that good.
then, they'd say, why are you betting the river, he either pot controlled an ace on the turn and you're value betting for him or he has less then that and cant call

[/ QUOTE ]


and then they`d say: now fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

They might say that, but they wouldn't fold. Not if they were the type of player to open limp A5o.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should really post this hand again as villain holding A5.

[/ QUOTE ]
people would say:
Wtf are you doing pre, limp/calling A5o vs an aggro bb is just burning money, either raise in or open fold if he's that good.
then, they'd say, why are you betting the river, he either pot controlled an ace on the turn and you're value betting for him or he has less then that and cant call

[/ QUOTE ]


and then they`d say: now fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

They might say that, but they wouldn't fold. Not if they were the type of player to open limp A5o.

[/ QUOTE ]
agree w/ zorbie

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think it's thin because you're representing 56 or JT.


[/ QUOTE ]

Or 77, but yeah it's a small range for sure.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

2. Noone ever bluffs in these spots, which he knows.

[/ QUOTE ]
seriously? It's BvB, people make all sorts of retardo bluffs

[/ QUOTE ]
Ot least I would say that people bluff in this spot quite rarely, even BvB. It's not a typical bluff line.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

So yeah I kinda agree with the people thinking it sucks, since he snapped it off with 9To.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
So yeah I kinda agree with the people thinking it sucks, since he snapped it off with 9To.

[/ QUOTE ]

the thing about spots where no one bluffs - there's a reason, because people always call.

i mean it's an interesting spot, but places where you can only rep like 2 legitimate made hands and the rest bluffs - not so good. save these spots for valuetown.

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

2.1/10

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
xorbie it is obvious that villain's hand is an ace 80% of the time. Villain knows that we know that. In this situation we need to be bluffing against a thinking villain. If we never bluff he can lay down the ace when we raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
No. This dynamic would have to be repeated countless times before we could get exploited by "never bluff raising". Fact if if you pot controlled 1 pair on the turn then hit 2pair on the river it's a great spot to go for a value raise since villain will bet/call 1 pair all day. Along those lines, it's a bad bluff, since people will continue to bet/call all day

[/ QUOTE ]

dear MSNL- game theory and balancing is not making u nearly as much money as u think it is, thank me later....

Re: Rate this bluff 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
So yeah I kinda agree with the people thinking it sucks, since he snapped it off with 9To.

[/ QUOTE ]

I forgot to ask about your image. He obv thinks you are the standard skandinavian lagtag bluff station. In that case bluff sucks. Would only do this if u both know u are v good and respect ur games a lot (u should bluff v rarely in this case since the legitamate raising range is slim).