Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

It's at the top of SI.com, you don't need a link.

What do people think the market will be like for Cabrera? What would you like to see your team give up to get him?

As a Sox fan I've been hoping to land him for a long time. We paid a steep price for Beckett and I imagine the Marlins would come looking for something huge for Cabrera as well. Our negotiating position might be improved by the fact that Miggy is quickly eating himself into a DH, but I still don't think the Marlins are likely to budge, and other teams will presumably offer a lot for him. I'm sure the Dodgers will do something stupid to land him.

I doubt the Red Sox can make it happen, but I would hope that the centerpiece of any deal would be Lester or Ellsbury, not Buchholz.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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It's at the top of SI.com, you don't need a link.

What do people think the market will be like for Cabrera? What would you like to see your team give up to get him?

As a Sox fan I've been hoping to land him for a long time. We paid a steep price for Beckett and I imagine the Marlins would come looking for something huge for Cabrera as well. Our negotiating position might be improved by the fact that Miggy is quickly eating himself into a DH, but I still don't think the Marlins are likely to budge, and other teams will presumably offer a lot for him. I'm sure the Dodgers will do something stupid to land him.

I doubt the Red Sox can make it happen, but I would hope that the centerpiece of any deal would be Lester or Ellsbury, not Buchholz.

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I prefer that the Sox keep and play their top prospects for cost control and use that extra money to buy Free Agents.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

I think the Yankees would be the best fit for him, but I'm a Yankees fan so you can take that with a grain of salt I guess. I also have heard different things about his relationship with Girardi.

I can see both sides of whether the Red Sox should go after him. On one end is his value higher than Lowell and whatever big prospects you'd have to give up? On the other he would be a perfect fit to take over Manny's spot in the lineup if you don't resign him when his contract is up.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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I'm sure the Dodgers will do something stupid to land him.

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FJM has a hilarious entry about Steve Phillips's advice to the Dodgers (I think it was a video segment on SportsCenter) on how to get to the World Series next year. He recommended they trade for both Cabrera AND Santana, as well as signing either Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

Im having a hard time thinking of a package I would want to trade him for.

I have a feeling this off-season is going to suck.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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I prefer that the Sox keep and play their top prospects for cost control and use that extra money to buy Free Agents.

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uh huh. and can you think of any free agents that we can land for 12 million a year that will put up cabrera's line?

the sox could easily end up paying a good bit more than that to someone like lowell, who is not going to be as good as cabrera next year. and lowell will probably require a 4 year deal.

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I prefer that the Sox keep and play their top prospects for cost control and use that extra money to buy Free Agents.

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uh huh. and can you think of any free agents that we can land for 12 million a year that will put up cabrera's line?

the sox could easily end up paying a good bit more than that to someone like lowell, who is not going to be as good as cabrera next year. and lowell will probably require a 4 year deal.

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I wasn't talking about this year's FA class per se. You keep and play your top prospects for cost control and then when there is a top free agent availbable on the market you are in a great position to land him.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

what free agent better than Cabrera will be available on the market in the near future? Santana?

How many players in the league would you rather have than him?

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

yea like miguel cabrera.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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I can see both sides of whether the Red Sox should go after him. On one end is his value higher than Lowell and whatever big prospects you'd have to give up? On the other he would be a perfect fit to take over Manny's spot in the lineup if you don't resign him when his contract is up.

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I think it's pretty much a given that we won't resign Manny when his contract is up. There's a decent chance they don't even exercise their option on him for 2009. Cabrera is the kind of big-time hitter entering his prime who we should be targeting to replace him. The question is merely, will the price be too steep?

One thing you have to ask, too, is whether the prospects we would give up are blocked, and what it would take to negotiate a long-term deal with Cabrera. We are pretty deep in terms of young pitching talent, and Ellsbury's value is probably as high now as it will ever be.

I'm really not sure about how much to give up, but I think if Cabrera is willing to re-sign for 6 or 8 years you have to make a big run at him. These type of deals, where a big-market team gives up big-time talent in exchange for the chance to lock up an established stud, can be good for both teams. There's a good chance that if we lock up Cabrera now, before he gets out of arb, we will get more than our money's worth over the next six or eight years, and there's also a good chance that some of the guys we'd give up would be blocked anyway.

I think the Yankees will make an offer for him, but I don't think Cashman is going to be willing to give up the young pitching that the Marlins will demand.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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I wasn't talking about this year's FA class per se. You keep and play your top prospects for cost control and then when there is a top free agent availbable on the market you are in a great position to land him.

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except we probably can't play several of the guys we'd give up because they'd be blocked at the MLB level. and if you get cabrera now before he hits the FA market you can probably lock him up at a bargain price.

it's basically, would you rather give up a few prospects and sign him for an average of like 15-17 million per year now, or watch the yankees sign him for 23 million in a few years when he hits the market?

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

But you mentioned Ellsbury + Lester as the centerpiece. I don't want to give up guys like that who can play and contribute on the 25 man roster at real cheap dollars.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

its depressing how the phillies are never in these conversations. if we had a good farm system i'm sure we'd try and land him, but we simply don't (in fact, it sucks)

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

I said Ellsbury or Lester, I doubt they would give up both.

The Sox payroll will probably go down next year even if they do get Cabrera. It's not as if we're going to go broke if we don't play a bunch of rookies. If you trade Ellsbury and some prospects for Cabrera, you don't bring Lowell back and Cabrera costs you less than Lowell.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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what free agent better than Cabrera will be available on the market in the near future? Santana?

How many players in the league would you rather have than him?

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Okay, but he's only two years from being auctioned off to the highest bidder. He's amazing, and I'd love to have him, but if the price is 3-4 excellent young players AND $25 million for two years of production and the compensatory draft picks, it's just not worth it, IMO...there are smarter ways to spend money/assets.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

But if you're trading highly valued prospects for Cabrera wouldn't you have to give him a long term deal? So you're going to have to lock him up at 16-20 million a year minimum.

I'm not saying I'd rather have Lowell, but Cabrera is going to cost a lot more money long term.

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its depressing how the phillies are never in these conversations. if we had a good farm system i'm sure we'd try and land him, but we simply don't (in fact, it sucks)

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I don't think Cabrera would be a good fit for Philadelphia. As many have noted, he's munching his way through being an option at third base. And I hear the Phillies have a decent first baseman.

However, he'd be perfect for the Yankees or Red Sox since the Yankees need help at both 3B and 1B, and the Red Sox have one guy who can play either one.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

Im assuming they would sign him to a long term deal if they make the trade.

The most pathetic part about this for Florida is that the "prospects" they would get in this deal are the same age as the veteran stud. You can't even pull the rebuilding card, just the nit card.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

of course they would sign him long-term. and they'd probably be able to get a better deal now, when he has two years left of arb, than they would if he hit the FA market.

people who are saying 'it's just not worth it...' ... are you serious? the guy is one of the top power hitters in the game, he's just entering his prime, and the sox are in need of a big RH bat to replace manny. if they don't get it here, where would they get it?

people talking about how much it would cost vs. the a-rod or lowell options: you do realize that cabrera is young, and will actually end up earning his paycheck over the life of this deal, unlike the other two, right?

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You keep and play your top prospects for cost control and then when there is a top free agent availbable on the market you are in a great position to land him.

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Are you stupid? Miguel Cabrera is a top five position player RIGHT NOW. He is also arbitration-eligible.

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But you mentioned Ellsbury + Lester as the centerpiece. I don't want to give up guys like that who can play and contribute on the 25 man roster at real cheap dollars.

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MIGUEL CABRERA IS CHEAP. TRADING THOSE TWO FOR HIM WOULD BE A RIDICULOUS STEAL.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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You keep and play your top prospects for cost control and then when there is a top free agent availbable on the market you are in a great position to land him.

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Are you stupid? Miguel Cabrera is a top five position player RIGHT NOW. He is also arbitration-eligible.

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isn't he an UFA in 2 years?

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

Obviously you are signing him to a long-term deal when you acquire him, buying out his arbitration years and getting another 3-5 years on top of it Grady Sizemore-style. Otherwise it's pretty stupid to trade the best pitching prospect for him.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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of course they would sign him long-term. and they'd probably be able to get a better deal now, when he has two years left of arb, than they would if he hit the FA market.

people who are saying 'it's just not worth it...' ... are you serious? the guy is one of the top power hitters in the game, he's just entering his prime, and the sox are in need of a big RH bat to replace manny. if they don't get it here, where would they get it?

people talking about how much it would cost vs. the a-rod or lowell options: you do realize that cabrera is young, and will actually end up earning his paycheck over the life of this deal, unlike the other two, right?

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The argument (at least from me) is that he might flat out refuse to sign a deal because he wants to hit the open market. Obviously, I (Tribe fan) make the deal if I can lock him up, but I don't think it's a given that he'd just instantly sign an eight year deal tomorrow.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

Miggy made $7,400,000 in his first year of arbitration last year, he will make lots more this year. I dunno if he is "cheap". Underpaid yes, but not by that much, and not for long.

As outstanding as his bat is, he is really bad at third. I don't think he is a top 5 position player in baseball, probably top 15 or so.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

The fact that he is getting fat and is increasingly unable to play third base effectively would mean that he could very well accept an arbitration-year buyout plus an extension through his FA years. I expect a five-year deal to be the norm (2+3), but I doubt he would sign anything over that without substantial risk to the team.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

usually these arb-year deals are beneficial to both the player and the team, they are pretty common. of course the sox would make sure and talk to miggy first to ensure he'd make a deal.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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As outstanding as his bat is, he is really bad at third. I don't think he is a top 5 position player in baseball, probably top 15 or so.

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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...php?cid=204031

He is tenth on the list of position players by VORP with people ahead of him like Jorge Posada, Chipper Jones, David Ortiz, and Magglio Ordonez. Unlike all of them, Miguel Cabrera's contract is 12m/year, he is entering his prime years as a baseball player instead of his decline phase, and he plays in a park that depresses home run rates.

He is top five when you factor in a simple age regression/progression statistic.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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The fact that he is getting fat and is increasingly unable to play third base effectively would mean that he could very well accept an arbitration-year buyout plus an extension through his FA years. I expect a five-year deal to be the norm (2+3), but I doubt he would sign anything over that without substantial risk to the team.

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I would assume that a 2+3 deal would be the last thing he'd ever want to do. Why would he accept what is essentially a three year deal that puts him back on the market heading into his 30th birthday? If he's worried about getting fat and moving to first base, he's going to want a 2+7 type deal.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

Kyle,

Yeah, that's cool, but he's getting fat, LDO.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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usually these arb-year deals are beneficial to both the player and the team, they are pretty common. of course the sox would make sure and talk to miggy first to ensure he'd make a deal.

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The deals you're referring to are usually made before the player ever hits arbitration. At this point, simply buying out his arbitration years is pretty much -EV for Miggy because there's almost no risk. Locking up Sizemore after 1.5 years, on the other hand, is one of those "good for both sides" deals because he could fall off a cliff the next day and only pocket $750K in his career.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

Top ten VORP for three straight years.

Re: Heyman: Miggy is on the block.
 

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The fact that he is getting fat and is increasingly unable to play third base effectively would mean that he could very well accept an arbitration-year buyout plus an extension through his FA years. I expect a five-year deal to be the norm (2+3), but I doubt he would sign anything over that without substantial risk to the team.

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I would assume that a 2+3 deal would be the last thing he'd ever want to do. Why would he accept what is essentially a three year deal that puts him back on the market heading into his 30th birthday? If he's worried about getting fat and moving to first base, he's going to want a 2+7 type deal.

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A 2+3 deal puts him on the market at age 30 which is around the peak of most ballplayer's careers. You would argue that he is entering his decline phase, and you'd be right. However, unlike you, Ned Colletti and Brian Sabean seem to have never heard of the term "decline phase," so why wouldn't he get a seven-year deal at age 30? A-Rod seems to be garnering plenty of interest, and he's 32.

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The fact that he is getting fat and is increasingly unable to play third base effectively would mean that he could very well accept an arbitration-year buyout plus an extension through his FA years. I expect a five-year deal to be the norm (2+3), but I doubt he would sign anything over that without substantial risk to the team.

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I would assume that a 2+3 deal would be the last thing he'd ever want to do. Why would he accept what is essentially a three year deal that puts him back on the market heading into his 30th birthday? If he's worried about getting fat and moving to first base, he's going to want a 2+7 type deal.

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A 2+3 deal puts him on the market at age 30 which is around the peak of most ballplayer's careers. You would argue that he is entering his decline phase, and you'd be right. However, unlike you, Ned Colletti and Brian Sabean seem to have never heard of the term "decline phase," so why wouldn't he get a seven-year deal at age 30? A-Rod seems to be garnering plenty of interest, and he's 32.

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But all that does is take the money he's going to make during his age 31-34 seasons and put it on the next Colletti/Bavasi/Bowden contract. Instead, signing a 2+7 deal gives him roughly the same yearly salary, but it locks him up immediately and guarantees the money. He'd be crazy to pass up a 2+7 offer from his new team because he wants to hit the market at age 30...his yearly salaries are going to be about the same no matter when he signs the contract.

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A 2+3 deal puts him on the market at age 30 which is around the peak of most ballplayer's careers. You would argue that he is entering his decline phase, and you'd be right. However, unlike you, Ned Colletti and Brian Sabean seem to have never heard of the term "decline phase," so why wouldn't he get a seven-year deal at age 30? A-Rod seems to be garnering plenty of interest, and he's 32.

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yes, it's very common for people to have their 'last big FA deal' around 29-31 and they all get paid plenty.

if cabrera wants to sign for the next nine years, though, i really don't have a problem with that. he is one of the best RH hitters in baseball and he will probably be playing 1B anyway, so the defense isn't such a big deal.

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Clearly if anyone is going to ship him a 2+7 deal then you'd get it done. However, the Giants have no one to trade, leaving only the Dodgers to do something that stupid. I don't underestimate Ned Colletti since he's an embarrassment to baseball front offices everywhere, but I think it's a lot more likely he gets a deal to the top of his prime years or an opt-out clause to allow him to do that.

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He'd be crazy to pass up a 2+7 offer from his new team because he wants to hit the market at age 30...his yearly salaries are going to be about the same no matter when he signs the contract.

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You're ignoring the fact that the market is probably going to be a lot different in 5 years, if revenue keeps growing he could end up signing for 30 million a year. Same reason A-Rod has his opt-out clause.

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A 2+3 deal puts him on the market at age 30 which is around the peak of most ballplayer's careers. You would argue that he is entering his decline phase, and you'd be right. However, unlike you, Ned Colletti and Brian Sabean seem to have never heard of the term "decline phase," so why wouldn't he get a seven-year deal at age 30? A-Rod seems to be garnering plenty of interest, and he's 32.

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yes, it's very common for people to have their 'last big FA deal' around 29-31 and they all get paid plenty.

if cabrera wants to sign for the next nine years, though, i really don't have a problem with that. he is one of the best RH hitters in baseball and he will probably be playing 1B anyway, so the defense isn't such a big deal.

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Again, I just don't think the 2+3 makes any sense for him. Instead, why wouldn't he take a 2+1 and hit the market before his age 28 season?

I think either a 2+0/2+1 deal or a 2+long-term deal make the most sense...a 2+3 sort of puts him in the middle because he's not guaranteed a ton of money, but he's also not hitting the market at his (expected) peak.

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He'd be crazy to pass up a 2+7 offer from his new team because he wants to hit the market at age 30...his yearly salaries are going to be about the same no matter when he signs the contract.

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You're ignoring the fact that the market is probably going to be a lot different in 5 years, if revenue keeps growing he could end up signing for 30 million a year. Same reason A-Rod has his opt-out clause.

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I think this still argues for a 2+1 over a 2+7. Frankly, I think a 2+0/2+1 is the best option for him, though I don't think anyone would blame him for taking a 2+7 and knowing he'll make $200 million no matter what happens.

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A 2+1 deal is effectively lol-worthy. If he wants to do that, then there's no reason to accept an extension, period. That would piss off the Marlins front office, but who cares about them.