Live - Did I miss a value bet?
 

Live tourney, $330 buy-in, Wicked Ass Structure

I am in LP and am dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 'Villainess' is UTG. Level 9. 400/800 - 100. History with Villainess: We are both sitting with about 55-60k and are most likely in the top 4 for chips. Previously she had made a hero call against my 'valuebet' on the river when I had middle pair, she had me out kicked, and won a small-ish pot. She has game, and is aware I play a LAG-ish style. She is also hot. That bit has nothing to do with the hand.

Ok.

Villainess opens UTG for 2100, its folded to me and I make the call. Blinds get out of the way.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="red"> GIN </font>

She checks, and I fire out 3500. She calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

She checks again, I'm wondering if she's slowplaying a boat or sitting on a hand like AdKd, AdQd, AdTd. I bet out 6800 and she calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

She checks again.

What is the optimum and why? The reason I am asking is given my recent history with her is it possible she will pay me off with an ace since she possibly missed her flush. Also, I think its unlikely she checks a boat with that board.

Re: Live - Did I miss a value bet?
 

Before you think about betting, you need to think if she might call a bet. If you feel that she would have bet a boat already, then you have the hand won. If you want to extract value, size your bet so a hand like QJ/KJ/any ace will call you. This board looks dangerous to a hand in that range, so I would size my bet on the smaller side, say 1/3 of the pot. I think a bet of about 8500-9000 (with ~41k behind) might get a crying call from a hand you beat. If she check/raises, I would be very wary.

Re: Live - Did I miss a value bet?
 

value bet 1/4 pot

Re: Live - Did I miss a value bet?
 

My experience in the live arena says yeah you missed a value bet if you didn't bet the river. With your past history with villianess, I think you can get away with a bet somewhere around 9-10,000. I would love to bet more but it's possible that a bet that size might even get called by A-high on this board in a live game.