BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

My guesses:

BCSCG
Georgia vs. OSU

Fiesta
Oklahoma vs. ASU

Sugar
LSU vs. Hawaii

Orange
VT vs. WVU

Rose
USC vs. Kansas

Re: Who is in the BCS?
 

If Georgia gets the title, it truly is the mythical national title

Re: Who is in the BCS?
 

Here are the BCS standings going into this week:

1 Missouri 1 2779 .9751 2 1454 .9693 25 23 24 25 25 25 .990 1 .9781 4
2 West Virginia 2 2753 .9660 1 1467 .9780 24 25 25 24 24 24 .970 2 .9713 3
3 Ohio State 3 2638 .9256 3 1383 .9220 23 24 23 22 21 23 .910 3 .9192 5
4 Georgia 4 2368 .8309 4 1232 .8213 21 17 22 23 20 20 .830 5 .8274 7
5 Kansas 6 2170 .7614 T-5 1161 .7740 22 22 16 19 23 21 .840 4 .7918 2
6 Virginia Tech 7 2164 .7593 T-5 1161 .7740 17 19 19 21 22 22 .810 6 .7811 8
7 LSU 5 2215 .7772 7 1134 .7560 20 21 21 20 18 18 .790 7 .7744 1
8 USC 9 2059 .7225 9 1073 .7153 18 20 13 14 16 16 .640 T-10 .6926 11
9 Oklahoma 8 2132 .7481 8 1126 .7507 14 10 15 13 13 17 .550 12 .6829 10
10 Florida 11 1757 .6165 11 898 .5987 15 15 18 17 17 14 .640 T-10 .6184 12
11 Boston College 12 1587 .5568 12 861 .5740 16 14 20 18 19 18 .720 8 .6169 14
12 Hawaii 10 1829 .6418 10 958 .6387 9 16 8 11 15 12 .470 14 .5835 15
13 Arizona State 13 1446 .5074 13 756 .5040 19 18 17 16 14 15 .660 9 .5571 6
14 Tennessee 15 1249 .4382 15 654 .4360 12 9 14 15 12 13 .510 13 .4614 18
15 Illinois 14 1254 .4400 14 674 .4493 11 13 7 9 8 9 .370 17 .4198 17
16 Clemson 18 897 .3147 17 469 .3127 7 3 10 12 11 10 .380 16 .3358 22
17 Oregon 19 716 .2512 20 316 .2107 13 5 11 8 9 7 .350 18 .2706 9
18 Wisconsin 16 911 .3196 16 493 .3287 5 12 3 4 0 2 .140 23 .2628 21
19 BYU 20 649 .2277 19 327 .2180 8 4 9 3 3 8 .230 19 .2252 25
20 Texas 17 903 .3168 18 417 .2780 6 0 4 0 0 3 .070 25 .2216 13
21 South Florida 25 249 .0874 27 100 .0667 10 0 12 10 10 11 .410 15 .1880 23
22 Virginia 23 478 .1677 T-21 271 .1807 3 2 6 6 7 4 .190 20 .1795 16
23 Cincinnati 21 512 .1796 24 146 .0973 2 6 5 2 4 6 .170 T-21 .1490 24
24 Auburn 24 402 .1411 T-21 271 .1807 4 0 1 7 6 1 .120 24 .1472 NR
25 Boise State 22 493 .1730 23 247 .1647 0 11 0 0 0 0 .000 NR .1125 19

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
My guesses:

BCSCG
Georgia vs. OSU

[/ QUOTE ]

My gut feeling is that there will be voter shenanigans and LSU will sneak in instead of UGA. OSU fans should be praying for this imo.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My guesses:

BCSCG
Georgia vs. OSU

[/ QUOTE ]

My gut feeling is that there will be voter shenanigans and LSU will sneak in instead of UGA. OSU fans should be praying for this imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Herbstriet already started the campaign for it.

Also, if Hawaii made it to the Sugar Bowl and beat LSU/Georgia to finish undefeated, should they get the AP title?

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

No, they shouldn't. It would certainly light a fire under their asses to start playing real teams in their schedule. They'd realize they can't get rewarded for cupcakes.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, they shouldn't. It would certainly light a fire under their asses to start playing real teams in their schedule. They'd realize they can't get rewarded for cupcakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I agree. Just throwing it out there.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

MT2R is right, but holy god 1 time

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Uh...its not shenanigans...you can't play for the national title if you don't win your conference

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Looking at the BCS rules of selection, there is an important stipulation:

C. When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same Conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents

Basically, this means that if LSU plays OSU, the Rose can't pick Georgia, even though they have the first pick for a replacement and Georgia is not tied to the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar would obviously not consent and the Rose would end up with USC vs. Kansas/Illinois rather than USC vs. Georgia. The implication there would be that USC vs. Georgia could make a serious claim for being the AP championship game.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at the BCS rules of selection, there is an important stipulation:

C. When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same Conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents

Basically, this means that if LSU plays OSU, the Rose can't pick Georgia, even though they have the first pick for a replacement and Georgia is not tied to the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar would obviously not consent and the Rose would end up with USC vs. Kansas/Illinois rather than USC vs. Georgia. The implication there would be that USC vs. Georgia could make a serious claim for being the AP championship game.

[/ QUOTE ]

far out.... hadn't seen that

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

If Hawaii loses...

[ QUOTE ]
My guesses:

BCSCG
Georgia vs. OSU

Fiesta
Oklahoma vs. ASU

Sugar
LSU vs. Kansas

Orange
VT vs. WVU

Rose
USC vs. Illinois

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Thank you WVU for representing the big east as best you could. I wanted ya'll to win just to make the BE legit, thanks guys. All of the other BE(outside of Pitt, LDO) thank you so much,

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Sooner or later Big East fanboys will have to admit that their conference is 3nd rate

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sooner or later Big East fanboys will have to admit that their conference is 3nd rate

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, because it should be considered a sin to root for the conference that your favorite time is in, especially because the BE should be in the same breath as the WAC, Sun Belt, and MAC.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you WVU for representing the big east as best you could. I wanted ya'll to win just to make the BE legit, thanks guys. All of the other BE(outside of Pitt, LDO) thank you so much,

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Indians will play OSU for the Nat'l Championship. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thank you WVU for representing the big east as best you could. I wanted ya'll to win just to make the BE legit, thanks guys. All of the other BE(outside of Pitt, LDO) thank you so much,

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Indians will play OSU for the Nat'l Championship. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh, so it's guaranteed that the state of Ohio will win the MNC? Damn Sabathia being such a good OL.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

If LSU slips into the NT game I am going to be sick. This is the first year the entire system is disgusting me. Not that the BCS hasn't had bad years before, but this year there is just no way it can work out in a positive way, and the "bcs national champion" should (and will) mean nothing.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thank you WVU for representing the big east as best you could. I wanted ya'll to win just to make the BE legit, thanks guys. All of the other BE(outside of Pitt, LDO) thank you so much,

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Indians will play OSU for the Nat'l Championship. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh, so it's guaranteed that the state of Ohio will win the MNC? Damn Sabathia being such a good OL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grady Sizemore was recruited by D1 to play QB!!

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

tease for my blog that I'll put up late tonight or earlier tomorrow

Georgia has actually underperformed W/L wise verse their schedule compared to how one would expect the #2 team to perform
[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

according to the math here, it's Ohio State and LSU as the two leaders

Of course, Ohio State is the only team that outperformed what one would expect from a #2 team. Every other team underperformed.

+/- compared to a #2
Ohio State +0.212W 0.899p
LSU -0.259W 0.866p
USC -0.263W 0.855p
Georgia -0.288W 0.857p
V Tech -0.577W 0.891p
Oklahoma -0.628W 0.895p

that looks at only wins and losses directly
of course, I'd think margin of victory favors Ohio St and LSU even more

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

For the first time in the history of the BCS, I think we have a season where a four team "and one" playoff would still exclude someone with a truly legitimate claim to the national title. In alphabetical order the following seven teams all have at least a valid argument for why they deserve a shot: Georgia, Kansas, LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, USC, and Virginia Tech. If they manage to come back and beat Washington, Hawaii also has a vaguely valid argument, even though they clearly aren't anywhere near being in the same league as the other seven. I'd love to see a playoff among those eight teams this year, but this year is an exception and I still think "and one" is the best system. It's not the system we have, though, so on to what I think will ACTUALLY happen (assuming Hawaii loses tonight).

BCSCG: Ohio State vs. LSU
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Illinois
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. West Virginia

Within the context of the current system that seems most likely to me, but I expect a lot of shuffling of ballots this week and UGA/LSU/KU/VT were all VERY close in the standings last week, enough that any of them could potentially leapfrog to #2. It will be close.

Oh yeah, and what I think *should* happen, within the context of the current system, is OSU vs. Oregon with Dixon magically healed. Seriously, don't try to make me pick between LSU, Georgia, and Kansas. Those are my top three contenders but I think it's WAY too close to call without analyzing it much more closely than I have the brain capacity to do so right now.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Record against current top 25 teams:

OSU 1-1 (only loss)
Kansas 0-1 (only loss)
USC 1-1 (one other loss)
Georgia 1-1 (one other loss)
VT 3-2 (no other losses)
LSU 3-0 (two other losses)
Oklahoma 3-0 (two other losses)

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
according to the math here, it's Ohio State and LSU as the two leaders

Of course, Ohio State is the only team that outperformed what one would expect from a #2 team. Every other team underperformed.

+/- compared to a #2
Ohio State +0.212W 0.899p
LSU -0.259W 0.866p
USC -0.263W 0.855p
Georgia -0.288W 0.857p
V Tech -0.577W 0.891p
Oklahoma -0.628W 0.895p

that looks at only wins and losses directly
of course, I'd think margin of victory favors Ohio St and LSU even more

[/ QUOTE ]
I love your blog, but can you include Kansas please? Also, the difference between -.259 and -.288 is small enough that while I think your numbers are enough to eliminate VT and Oklahoma from contention, I think you need to turn to other methods to differentiate between LSU, USC, and Georgia.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Source

[ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl officials have the option to choose among several teams, but Big Ten sources indicated they have been assured that Illinois will be selected today if Ohio State moves up and Illinois is in the BCS pool

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Delaney flexing his muscles

for Illinois?

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Delaney flexing his muscles

for Illinois?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bros before hos.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

lsu vs ohio state is what it should be, even if Georgia is playing better right now - how can you have a team play for the title if they didnt even win their division? If it is Va Tech i would be mad if i was a LSU fan, they beat VA tech 44-7 or whatever it was in week 2.

im rooting for Georgia, that would really put a turd in the bcs punch bowl

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Source

[ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl officials have the option to choose among several teams, but Big Ten sources indicated they have been assured that Illinois will be selected today if Ohio State moves up and Illinois is in the BCS pool

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this Gould guy usually on the mark? That's pretty big what he said there.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Yep... Gould is pretty good and that is a major paper

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Source

[ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl officials have the option to choose among several teams, but Big Ten sources indicated they have been assured that Illinois will be selected today if Ohio State moves up and Illinois is in the BCS pool

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this Gould guy usually on the mark? That's pretty big what he said there.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's big, but not surprising at all. It is nice to see it printed in a major newspaper though.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Source

[ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl officials have the option to choose among several teams, but Big Ten sources indicated they have been assured that Illinois will be selected today if Ohio State moves up and Illinois is in the BCS pool

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF DKLJHLKASDJFHLlkjhfakljdhflkasd564

this makes me even more irate than not getting into the national title game (likely).

USC versus UGA is what people want to see, and you give them USC versus Illinois?

[censored] you rose bowl

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

I'm not a huge numbers guy, can someone tell me very briefly why USC is not being considered more for the NC?

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yep... Gould is pretty good and that is a major paper

[/ QUOTE ]

Good. And good for Illinois.

Also good for the Hoosiers as it could move them all the way up to the Champs Sports Bowl.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Source

[ QUOTE ]
Rose Bowl officials have the option to choose among several teams, but Big Ten sources indicated they have been assured that Illinois will be selected today if Ohio State moves up and Illinois is in the BCS pool

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF DKLJHLKASDJFHLlkjhfakljdhflkasd564

this makes me even more irate than not getting into the national title game (likely).

USC versus UGA is what people want to see, and you give them USC versus Illinois?

[censored] you rose bowl

[/ QUOTE ]


If LSU plays for the title, UGA cannot go to the Rose Bowl due to BCS rules

Illinois would not be taking UGA's spot

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

battle for the decade FTW. I wanted the B squads to win just so I could get this game irrational or not. Jim Tressel has laid one egg in his career and I will be shocked if he lets that occur again. But yeat again I heard Colt 45 is troy smith 's love child

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a huge numbers guy, can someone tell me very briefly why USC is not being considered more for the NC?

[/ QUOTE ]

USC only has one real quality win (ASU) and lost their marquee matchup against Oregon. Add that to losing to a hapless Stanford team and the fact that they kinda backed into the PAC10 title when Dixon went down and Oregon collapsed.

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
lsu vs ohio state is what it should be, even if Georgia is playing better right now - how can you have a team play for the title if they didnt even win their division? If it is Va Tech i would be mad if i was a LSU fan, they beat VA tech 44-7 or whatever it was in week 2.

im rooting for Georgia, that would really put a turd in the bcs punch bowl

[/ QUOTE ]

Its happened before...remember Nebraska?

2001-02 season

These BCS bowl games were played following the 2001 regular season

* Tuesday, January 1, 2002 - Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oregon (Pac-10 champion) 38, Colorado (Big 12 champion) 16
* Thursday, January 3, 2002 - Rose Bowl Game presented by AT&T (National Championship): Miami (FL) (BCS #1, Big East champion) 37, Nebraska (BCS #2) 14

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

Well, with Hawaii-Washington tied, I guess I should throw out my alternate possibility... if Hawaii does win. I would then project:

BCSCG: Ohio State vs. LSU
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Illinois
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawaii

Re: BCS Bowl Matchups Speculation
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a huge numbers guy, can someone tell me very briefly why USC is not being considered more for the NC?

[/ QUOTE ]

USC only has one real quality win (ASU) and lost their marquee matchup against Oregon. Add that to losing to a hapless Stanford team and the fact that they kinda backed into the PAC10 title when Dixon went down and Oregon collapsed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ty.