Semi-bluff defence strategy
 

I've been thinking a little about defending marginal hands against semi-bluffs and attempts to gain a free card.

I'll make up a theoretical example (with reads) and talk you through my latest defense technique. It's probably entirely standard to a lot of you but I thought I should check that this isn't an error in my thinking.

Say you have an ok tag image and raise QdQh from a middle position finding one caller on the button. Villain is 22/18/3 and is generally a solid player who you believe wins at this level.

The flop is 10h,7c,2h and you continuation bet 2/3rd pot. Villain makes a standard raise.

I find this to be a very marginal situation. If you come over the top you basically say I have Ah,Kh an overpair or a set. You very much give away the strength of your hand and I believe villain will fold A10 and maybe JJ type of hands and look you up with 2p or better. A push is therefore not likely to be called by inferior hands enough to justify making it, and if villain has semi-bluffed the hearts he won't call without the right price.

However, a fold here seems equally weak right? I mean, we expect villain not to have AA-JJ here that often for he'd 3-bet preflop and he's unlikely to have two pair. Thus we expect to see a set, a semi-bluff or pure air here quite a bit.

My thinking is that we call this flop raise and lead pretty much any safe turn for 2/3rd+ pot. If a heart, a 6 or a J come we must exercise caution as they complete heart-draw and 89-draw, but otherwise we lead out.

This protects us against villain peeling a free card and also charges an unfavorable price for a draw. It also acts as a value bet against the likes of A10 and JJ and against this player will usually shut down the pot if he's on a draw (but we can live with a call as we've priced him out). As a bonus the bet gives us information since any raise is surely from a hand that crushes QQ and we can fold with a clear mind as opposed to the alternative which may be to call two streets to showdown.

What are your thoughts on this line and can you offer better strategies or think of any other contexts in which to use it.

What about doing this if say you raised A9s and the flop was 10,9,4 with two hearts. Here the same call raise lead turn action achieves the same result but also has value bluff properties in that villain may call the turn with draws or inferior hands but may also fold 10x. Thoughts.

Re: Semi-bluff defence strategy
 

1 How much did you raise, and 2 how deep and 3 have you seen him pull stunts?

This is a very close situation, and the answer is certainly influenced by stacksize and the size of the pot overall. 22/18/3 might re-pop with 10/10 in position, depends on the villian. A10s (right or wrong suit) is a big possibility, as is somebody who has a little something (or nothing) and wants you to lay AK or AQ down now.

If you call, the turn card all hearts, all As, All Ks and 10s are very unfriendly. Of course, if you check an aggressive opponent with the huge pot you've just built may well have just been presented with a huge bluffing opportunity if any of those cards fall.

Re: Semi-bluff defence strategy
 

I don't like this line at all. You have to at least consider shutting down on an A,J,T,6 or heart turn. Depending on what villain actually has, that's 20ish scare cards. In addition, it's way to easy to screw up down the road and call a river value bet from a made set or overpair on a safe board, thinking it's a bluff from a busted draw.

If villain is likely making a move here with a gutshot or air, or the stacks are short, push. Otherwise fold. Calling simply prolongs your problems and makes them big-$ problems instead of the vers small problem you currently have.

Re: Semi-bluff defence strategy
 

Assume 100bb each at the start, 4bb preflop, 2/3rd pot c-bet and about a standard raise from villain.

Re: Semi-bluff defence strategy
 

4bb preflop raise and call from button + blinds = pot size of 9.5BB

A 2/3 CB =6 BB
A standard raise from the villain to 16 BB (?)
you call the extra 10 BB, to make the pot 16+16+9.5=41.5BB

You bet 2/3 pot or 28 BB on the turn, leaving yourself with exactly 50BB left and a 119BB pot in the middle.

Isnt that a horrible situation with an overpair?

Re: Semi-bluff defence strategy
 

Do solid players make semi-bluff raises in NL to get a free turn card? Isn't that limit move? Seems pretty expensive to put a standard NL raise into a pot just to get a free card. Kinda defeats the "free" aspect.

Re: Semi-bluff defence strategy
 

What's your plan if the turn blanks, you bet 2/3 pot and he shoves? Are you folding? And a 22/18 is always RRing pre with TT/JJ pre obviously, so you can rule those 2 hands out.

Re: Semi-bluff defence strategy
 

[ QUOTE ]
4bb preflop raise and call from button + blinds = pot size of 9.5BB

A 2/3 CB =6 BB
A standard raise from the villain to 16 BB (?)
you call the extra 10 BB, to make the pot 16+16+9.5=41.5BB

You bet 2/3 pot or 28 BB on the turn, leaving yourself with exactly 50BB left and a 119BB pot in the middle.

Isnt that a horrible situation with an overpair?

[/ QUOTE ]


Just about the worst. That's why I was interested in Stacks and reads. This is likely push or fold, depending on stacks and the likelihood of a stunt.