Two Plus Two Newer Archives - Assani's NFL Wagering Thread

Two Plus Two Newer Archives (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/index.php)

- Sports Betting (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=42)

- - Assani's NFL Wagering Thread (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=503547)

Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread

In the past I've taken a very casual and light-hearted approach to sports betting, but now that I live in Vegas I'd like to start betting the games more seriously. I started off betting $125 per game, and most of my bets will probably fall in the $100-$300 range. At first I wasn't going to bother to start a thread, but I've gotten off to a great start and am feeling confident, so I'll give it a go.

Instead of just posting my picks each week, I'm going to post my thought processes throughout the week. I gladly welcome all comments and criticisms, as I go through the process of coming up with my final picks right before the games start(usually make a trip to MGM either Saturday night or Sunday morning). Addittionally, I'll try to take a look back at my picks from the previous weeks and see what I did right/wrong and try to learn from them.

First my picks and results from the first two weeks:

Week 1: 3-0
Seattle -5.5
Buffalo +3
Tenn +6
I didn't post these picks here, so no link or analysis available.

Week 2: 3-0
link to picks
Atl +10
KC +12.5
Pit -10

Looking back to week 2
Here was my analysis on my picks:

ATL +10: Jacksonville is overrated. They've lost 4 in a row. They got manhandled last week. This will be low scoring, 10 should be enough.

KC +12.5: KC really didn't lose that much from last year...people are underrating them. I think they'll win 7 games or so. Chicago's offense is dreadful. Another low scoring game, and 12.5 is too much.

Pit -10: I think Pit is a top 5 team. Went 15-1 3 years ago, SB champs 2 year ago, last year QB got hurt and coach retired and everything fell apart. They represent good value early in the season imo.

I think I nailed the Pit and Atl calls, and I couldn't be more happy regarding those plays. I think I got very lucky though with KC. That game clearly could've gone either way, and looking back I think I should've laid off it.

I only had $375 in cash on me Sunday morning, otherwise I was also set to bet on tenn+7. I talked myself into dropping that game becuase I decided the Colts were tough to bet against- they easily could play close for 3 quarters and then score 21 late points to easily cover. However, I was shocked when watching the game to see the stat that Tenn and Indy had the most games last year decided by 7 points or less. Tenn I expected, but I was shocked to learn that about Indy. I'd be interested to hear thoughts on that stat and whether or not there might be value in fading Indy as a result.

I also would've taken Wash+7 if I didn't have a rule about not betting on my favorite team. But on the other hand I would've bet on NYG -1 if I knew Eli was going to play, so I guess it evens out a bit.

Overall very happy with this past week...I go 3-0 and both of my favorite teams win...can't ask for much more than that.

Week 3
Early lines: LINK

The very first line that jumped out to me was Denver -3 at home against Jacksonville. If you couldn't already tell by my picking against them the first two weeks, I think Jacksonville is tremendously overrated.

FACT: Jacksonville lost their last 3 games last year
FACT: Jacksonville has failed to cover the spread in either game this year
FACT: The last time these two teams played, Denver won 20-7 in Jacksonville
FACT: Through two games this year Jacksonville has given up the most rushing yards in the league, while through two games this year Denver has rushed for the third most yards in the league.

IMHO Jacksonville is simply not a very good team. I don't know what their schedule looks like off-hand, so I'm not going to make an exact prediction on their record, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them as a 6-10 team. They just barely squeaked by a horrile ATL team at home last week. Why exactly are they only 3 point underdogs on the road(which means the teams would be even on a neutral field)?

As for Denver, I think many people are guilty of just looking at the scoreboard regarding them. People think "they barely beat two bad teams, so they can't be that good." What people don't realize is that Denver has moved the ball very well and stopped the other team very well, but they've struggled inside the red zone(on both sides of the football). I believe that is just variance and bad luck so far. Allow me to quote two posts on footballguys from moleculo and SSOG, which I believe sum up my viewpoints well:

[ QUOTE ]
Denver has managed 400+ yards in both games. Denver leads the league in yards gained, and is 3rd in yards allowed. Denver is top 5 in rushing and passing yards per game, and first is passing yards allowed. On the other hand, Denver has only scored 3 TD's so far - 20th in the league, and is 27th in rushing D.

This offense is clicking at a high level so far, but simply failed to punch it in the end zone. Counting OT, Denver had five trips inside the 10, with three FG's yesterday. That will change - at least it better.

Of course, the raiders and the Bills aren't exactly cream of the crop teams. The Den O has been clicking the way one would expect them to. A mediocre O would put up some yards against these teams. What is concerning is the lack of TD's and the run D. both of these can haunt a team come playoff time, but there is plenty of time to fix.

Denver has struggled opening the season on the road the past few years - dropping games vs Mia and StL, specifically. While they should have killed the Bills, I was pleased with the win. The raiders always play the Broncos tough - divisional rivalry and all that.

Bottom line is that this team is finding a way to win. winning ugly is still winning. Wins like these will mean alot come playoff push time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiousity, are you watching the games, or are you basing that solely off of margin of victory and opponent faced? This isn't one of those "you obviously aren't watching the games!" accusations, I was just honestly curious. As a Broncos fan, I have to say, if you look at anything other than the actual score, you'd swear Denver won those two games by 40 combined points. I mean, outgaining Buffalo by 300 yards? Allowing 125 net passing yards in 130 minutes?

Denver is #1 in the NFL in yards per game (#5 in passing yards, #4 in rushing yards). Denver is #3 in the NFL in yards allowed per game (with Philly yet to play, so they'll likely be #2 in yards allowed per game after tonight), allowing 62.5 yards per game passing despite an 12% more football than the average NFL team (thanks to the OT). Denver has a positive turnover differential and a positive sack differential (including ranking 7th in the league in sacks and 3rd in the league in INTs). If this is the most unimpressive 2-0 start you've ever seen, I would suggest that maybe you haven't seen many 2-0 starts.

If Philly allows more than 222 yards tonight, then Denver and New England will be #1 and #2 in terms of yards per game and yards allowed per game. If Denver hadn't played overtime, it would have actually been #1 in both categories (and yes, that's even discounting the yards that Denver itself gained in overtime).

[/ QUOTE ]

As with all game, I will rethink things throughout the week, but as of now I can't see any reason why Denver -3 isn't a great pick.

Another game I'm leaning towards early is Pit -9 at home vs San Fran. I fully jumped on the Pit bandwagon after week 1, as evidenced by my power rankings and week 2 pick of them.

One of my major overall theories about NFL wagering is that people overreact too much to last year. Pit is every bit as good now as they were when they went 15-1 or when they won the SB imho. So far they've blown out two bad opponents, and I don't see any reason for that to stop this week. And this past week's game against Buffalo wasn't even as close as the score indicated, as Pit settled for quite a few FGs deep in Buffalo territory.

I really don't think SF is anything more than an average team. I think their 0-2 start is a mirage and they get clobbered this week.

I must admit that I'm tempted at Buffalo getting 16.5. That just seems like a ton of points, and having come off a big win vs SD and with a road game against Cincy in week 4 this seems like a classic let down game imo. They're division rivals too, which makes me think it could be a hard fought, close game. I'm still very undecided though here.

I like the Jets -3 at home against Miami. The Jets were a playoff team last year, while the Dolphins were 6-10. The Jets have lost against New England and on the road against Baltimore(one of the hardest places to win on the road according to the stats)....should we really bump them down that much for those two losses? The home team being favored by 3 generally means two evenly matched teams....What has Miami done to make us put them on the Jets level? Also I was impressed with how Clemens came on late in the Balt game, and I think that will give him some confidence for this week. I'm not in love with the play, but I"m definitely leaning towards NY here.

I like Houston +5. Houston looks good...really good. Its not just that they've won 2 games, but its how they won them. Falling down 2 TDs on the road against Carolina and then coming back impressed me a lot. I really like what they've got in Houston on both sides of the football. I'm going to have to monitor Andre Johnson's injury though for sure. Also that stat about the Colts and games decided by 7 points or less is really sticking out to me. If AJ is healthy, I think Houston takes this game striaght up and makes a statement to the league.

Tennesee has played two very good games, only losing by two points to Indy this past week. New Orleans has looked like legitimately the worst team in the league so far. Yes I could see N.O. coming out and just destroying them on MNF similar to their MNF game against Atlanta last year, but I think its very possible that they just aren't a very good team this year. Also Vince Young on MNF = $$$. I like Tenn +4.5.

Nothing else really stood out to me as anything worth betting on. And of course these are just my initial impressions, and I will probably makes some changes before placing my actual bets. I may lay off on some of them simply because it feels like this is a lot of action and I may want to limit it to the ones I feel most strongly about. As always, thoughts and comments are welcome.