10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

Reads: This guy is a nit thus far. 6/0/1.5 over 50 hands. I mean, what do I beat on the river besides random pair/two pair hands?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $13.85
SB: $13.20
BB: $2.50
Hero (UTG): $13.30
CO: $12.35

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $0.40, SB folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1</font>, BTN calls $1, BB calls $1

Turn: ($4.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, BTN calls $3.50, BB folds

River: ($11.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero???

Edit: 50 hands on villain

Re: 10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

how many hands is the sample over?

Re: 10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

what's he calling with on the flop and turn? of the hands he's likely playing like that on the flop and turn you're only behind QJ. And does a nit call a raise with QJ? Doubtful. I'd expect to see 33 a lot here. I'd just shove it in on the river.

Re: 10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

you lose a bet or something?

anyway, dont know about 33 (wouldnt there be a raise somewhere from him if it was?), but i do think it could be jq. that said, i like a 1/2 pot bet, 5.50 or so. if nit pushes, youre probably beat and can fold there imo. if it is 33, he may call that, but i think pushing is bad at these levels , because if he doesnt have the str8 he aint calling it. i think we have to bet something that he may call

Re: 10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

What's BB action after the river card was dealt? It might help a lot more to define his hand.

Re: 10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

he was watching because he folded the street before

Re: 10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

Hero only has a remaining stack of $8.40 and if he bets $5.50 he is pot-committed.

You are probably beaten against villain's range and if you bet on the river you will most of the time be called or raised by a better hand. Set over set is so rare, so even if villain has 33, he will probably check it down if you do according to his PT stats.

So, my line here is check-folding the river unless the bet is really small.

Re: 10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
he was watching because he folded the street before

[/ QUOTE ]

Sry, I mean button.

But your response was very helpful. Thanks.

Re: 10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hero only has a remaining stack of $8.40 and if he bets $5.50 he is pot-committed.






this is true, to an extent. the guys a nit, and if he pushes over you pretty much "know" youre beat. i dont have a problem folding no matter what odds im getting if i "know" im beat











You are probably beaten against villain's range and if you bet on the river you will most of the time be called or raised by a better hand. Set over set is so rare, so even if villain has 33, he will probably check it down if you do according to his PT stats.

So, my line here is check-folding the river unless the bet is really small.

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i just hate to miss value, and its possible (probable?) our hand is good with how villain has played so far. i hate letting him check behind a worse hand that he may call with here, i think we have to bet (i understand your first point; i personally hate betting 1/4 pot and such, it just looks scared and makes it easier for villains to exploit us imo, but if he'll call with worse and it leaves us enough to comfortably fold to the push, then so be it)

Re: 10NL: Set runs into DISASTER card on river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he was watching because he folded the street before

[/ QUOTE ]

Sry, I mean button.

But your response was very helpful. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]



no, thank you for the helpful post you submitted where you wanted to know what action the nonexistent player was going to make, because his action would really help determine our action going forward.