25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

Don't have HH, sorry. Early in a session against an opponent I've never played before. We've gotten it in light and I've been losing. Seems very aggressive, he's made multiple shockingly thin value bets that I've paid off with worse. These have mostly been in small pots, crap like flop and turn get checked thru and then he vbs river with bottom pair and I call queen hi and lose on AKTT9 type boards. I haven't caught a big bluff from him but I'm quite confident he's capable, not necessarily in this spot specifically, but in general. (Ya, I game select good.)

25/50 effective stacks 7k

I make it 150 on the button with A3o, he calls.

Pot 300

Flop Ac 3c 2c

He bets 225, I call.

Pot 750

Turn Ac 3c 2c Ah

He bets 650, I call.

Pot 2050

River Ac 3c 2c Ah 4c

He checks, I bet 1700, he shoves ~6k

Obviously everyone's first reaction is going to be "You have a full house HU, one of the better possible ones even, CaLVlALa CAllAlAlALLALCLCLA ACclALlcLACLA CLALCALCLACL ACLAAL" but what am I expecting to beat?
Does he really take this line for value with worse often enough? Is he ever bluffing?
More specifically, A) how does he even get to this spot with a hand that wants to try to bluff? and B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?

Edit: Its definitely relevant to this hand that I'm pretty sure any two suited, and likely more combinations of 5cXy than you might expect, are in his range to call OOP preflop. He has shown up with 32s after calling a raise from the BB.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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Does he really take this line for value with worse often enough

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yes, he def would with the one combo of 33 and the combos of 22, and 44 if he got here this way. this river is a great one to check, because you'll bet just as many hands as you'll call with (you might call with like 88 with a club or something, rarely, but in general face card clubs that would call will also bet, and sometimes you have 77 no club that turns into a bluff)

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Is he ever bluffing?

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yes, most hands that make boats or quads raise the flop a fairly high % of the time, and his line is very believable for a boat

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B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?


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face card clubs (to both)

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A) how does he even get to this spot with a hand that wants to try to bluff?

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ten million ways, unless you have a read he doesn't donk flops often or something

so

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You have a full house HU, one of the better possible ones even, CaLVlALa CAllAlAlALLALCLCLA ACclALlcLACLA CLALCALCLACL ACLAAL

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Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

..

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

he had 5 of clubs huh, bummer

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?


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face card clubs (to both)



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Would a value bet really be correct with face card clubs here?

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?


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face card clubs (to both)



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Would a value bet really be correct with face card clubs here?

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yes? wtf? you want to check the king or queen of clubs here?

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

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B) what hands does he expect me to bet/fold this river with (or bet/call for that matter)?


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face card clubs (to both)



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Would a value bet really be correct with face card clubs here?

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yes? wtf? you want to check the king or queen of clubs here?

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I'm thinking that ike very rarely takes this calldown line to bluff the river, so he wouldn't be getting called light on that board, but you definitely have more 25/50 hu experience and know the oop's check/call range better

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

I certainly don't play this high, but surely this is a snap call if he is prone to VB light??

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

I call him here. Your bet on the river is both big enough to seem like made hand turned bluffish....but also small enough to be folded when he comes over the top with a hand he "must" beat you with in his mind as a representation of course. just my two cents....thats what i think is going on in his head.

Re: 25/50 HU Fold a fullhouse? Surely not
 

This is 22 and 33 a lot IMO.