NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Villain is ShiptFMA, I have him at 15/12/1 over 40ish hands.
Don't know what my stats were, but I'd been tight. Don't know if any of my hands had gone to showdown.

A few hands before I raised 55 to $3 on the button against 2 limpers and he called in the BB w 87s.

Being 2+2, I assumed the only set he can possibly have on this flop is JJ (and even that is unlikely), and surely he raises 2 pair on such a drawy flop. So I assumed he had some sort of combo draw, or possibly ATs. Same on the turn, I'm figuring he raises a boat here (if he has it - which I doubt) as he can't rely on me to fire river.

I very rarely fire three barrels, and only do so against thinking players who I think of are capable of laying down a hand. I'm basically repping a boat or straight here.

Thoughts?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $56.85
Hero (MP): $50
CO: $24.50
BTN: $125.10
SB: $46.70
BB: $10

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.50</font>, BTN calls $8.50

River: ($28.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $22</font>

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

I think 3 barreling on this flop is bad... There are many hands that beat you and few draws.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

I think the 2nd barrel is ok, but i'm really not sure about the 3rd one.

What does it acheive? What better hands are you getting to fold?

If he's decent, i would imagine his calling range on the button would be AT+. Maybe he folds AT here, but i really doubt it. AJ has a full house and you're going to get raised. AQ made top two which is unlikely as he didn't raise the flop but he's still not folding it and i don't think he would call two bets with AK then fold a blank river.

Maybe he called with A8/9s and will fold, but i think it's unlikely from his stats.

So, if you're not getting many better hands to fold, and a missed draw that you beat is folding anyway, and nothing that you beat is calling, i really don't see this as a profitable play.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

I think i play this hand bad FYI, kinda interested to see how this discussion goes

lol, reading all the leadup to the hand i feel like a tard :P

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

This is fine. I fold AK on the river against this line

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

If you think he is on a combo-draw or AT, I don't like river bet. You beat a missed draw, so it is better to c/c a bluffed missed draw than lead here, and I don't think AT is folding after calling F&amp;T. He also isn't folding any J after calling F&amp;T. I don't know what calls F&amp;T that folds river that you beat.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

I don't like it. I think the second barrel is ok but the 3rd is just spew. That 5 of diamonds obv. didn't help anyone and what hand does he flat two streets here that doesn't already beat you?

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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If you think he is on a combo-draw or AT, I don't like river bet. You beat a missed draw, so it is better to c/c a bluffed missed draw than lead here, and I don't think AT is folding after calling F&amp;T. He also isn't folding any J after calling F&amp;T. I don't know what calls F&amp;T that folds river that beats you.

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FYP

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Agreed that many hands that beat me, but I think he's raising 2 pair+ on this drawy board. The previous hand has shown he's willing to call raises with suited connectors OOP, so I imagine he can call with them in position.

Also, I don't know how he'll play his draws if I check to him on the turn or river. If I check and he puts in a decnt bet, I'm in a real tough spot, and I'd prefer to be the one putting him to a decision rather than vice versa.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

What the min you guys call the river with?

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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This is fine. I fold AK on the river against this line

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I think it is unusual for villain to not repop AK or not raise flop.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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Agreed that many hands that beat me, but I think he's raising 2 pair+ on this drawy board. The previous hand has shown he's willing to call raises with suited connectors OOP, so I imagine he can call with them in position.

Also, I don't know how he'll play his draws if I check to him on the turn or river. If I check and he puts in a decnt bet, I'm in a real tough spot, and I'd prefer to be the one putting him to a decision rather than vice versa.

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Reason why i called the river

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Villain is 2+2, I'd be shocked if he called 3 streets with AT here. I think AK may fold here too, as he only really beats a bluff, or is chopping.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Difficult to answer because there's not a lot of hands I'd take this line with to begin with. I'm wavering between AQ+ or Jx+

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

I should probalby add OP was running at like 7 / 5 / ~ over 45 hands

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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Villain is 2+2, I'd be shocked if he called 3 streets with AT here. I think AK may fold here too, as he only really beats a bluff, or is chopping.

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Looking at pot/stack sizes again, I can see someone folding AT (or AK) on the river if the board weren't paired, but I think drawing with TP+GS on the turn is -EV on a paired board, where a straight will fill a lot of people up. And he can't have TP+FD.

Always nice to have both hero and villain in a thread.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

J10c, J9c, maybe a loose KJc preflop, AQ, possibly AK if you didn't re raise preflop. I really can't imagine you calling down with anything else.

KK folds, AA reraises preflop and on flop, AJ raises, JQ raises, QQ raises, 10's fold. Can't really see you making this call with anything else on the river.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop)

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop)

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not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ?

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

If he had you on whiffed SCs I'd expect him to c/c the river and not lead out.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop)

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not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ?

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Hard to say without knowing how you played it after the flop. Just b/c you made a loose call from the BB doesn't mean you'll peel or float 2 streets on a AQJJcc board.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

BTW, your avatar on Stars cracks me up. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop)

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not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ?

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Hard to say without knowing how you played it after the flop. Just b/c you made a loose call from the BB doesn't mean you'll peel or float 2 streets on a AQJJcc board.

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Yeah, this is what I was thinking. I don't think you're calling down three streets with a hand like bottom pair, just because you're making loose calls preflop with a good speculative hand like a mid-suited connector, and I expect Hero (villain?) in this situation to recognize that.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Grunch.

I love your thinking, but I don't like the player you chose to apply it to.

15/12/1. It's the 1 that disturbs me. He's been extremely passive over his 40ish hands.

If he calls you for two bets, he no longer holds 99 or less... he has a part of the board or is crushing. While I don't mind the second barrel, the third barrel is spew I think (against this player).

He shows up here with AT/AK a lot (his passivity tells me he's the type to just call raises with AK sometimes if not often). He also could have AJ (and he decided to slowplay and/or wait for a safe card). Once he nuts with AJ, he lets you continue to bet into him.

I think he tosses all his underpairs after the 2nd barrel, so really we aren't left with many hands that aren't sticking around.

The real question is can he fold a naked AK/AT/A9s? I just think his 1 aggression is indicative of him being a calling station (need to see his WTSD W$SD for confirmation).

Again, once he gets past the turn, I think he's calling a reasonable river bet with most of his holdings.

Two other holdings he *might* play like this are JJ/QQ. If he is really passive, he may just be a caller with those hands, and of course when he flops that huge, he may call with the intention of raising on the turn, but since he nuts on the turn with those hands, he no longer needs to get active.

I think you are way way way behind after he calls the turn. Check fold river against *this* player. Against a player who is more aggressive on the flop with made sets and two pairs and TPTK who played the hand this way, I'd expect them to be floating with underpairs or 2nd pair or worse, and would expect them to fold to the turn bet.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ?

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Wouldnt this be more of a reason for him not to bluff you as you look like a calling station? If I saw someone calling me light why would I start bluffing into them? Which I guess also goes along with why I dont like this as someone who calls down light isnt someone you should be bluffing.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

results?

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

I don't know if he's trying to bluff someone who's calling him down light but instead he's trying to value bet with hands that would normally be bluffs. I think that's what he means.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Hes bluffing as you can see from the responses of people saying what better hands they would fold. Villain would have to be a complete idiot to justify this as a value bet.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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results?

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I had AK and stationed him, lol

I should have just 3bet pre, but i suck at doing that vs 7/5's thinking it'll put me in a tough spot but boy oh boy it'd save me money

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Yeah, I was surprised to see AK to be honest, but that can't have been an easy river call. I don't think I would have made it.

And to those saying ShipIt is passive, the sample size is 40 hands. That is nothing and certainly not enough to determine how he plays his big hands/draws with any certainty. Similarly, I was 7/5 over that same sample because I was completely card dead.

BTW ShipIT, did you know I was 2+2 before the hand? Just wondering if that affected your decision at all.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

I didn't know you were 2p2 and to be honest i should have and normally do fold that river. I kinda figured you'd be expecting me to fold a weaker ace or busted draw there so there was a chance i was good some % of the time. I also figured we'd be chopping a large % of the time there too, which made the call a tad easier

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Shipit PM me your AIM

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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I didn't know you were 2p2 and to be honest i should have and normally do fold that river. I kinda figured you'd be expecting me to fold a weaker ace or busted draw there so there was a chance i was good some % of the time.

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I dont understand this though. If he sees you calling light he should assume youre station-ish so why would you think that he thinks you would fold river with a top pair hand. I mean it worked out this time that he did but I dont understand the logic behind this, what is this some reverse mind game that Im missing.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

#$%$#%$% shipit, I didn't wanna see! plz white next time. kthx.

grunching as best as I can, I can't put him on a jack here. I like the 3-barrel against any 2+2er as they will be trying (albeit some of us are terrible at it) to put you on a hand. Our hand looks like a straight to valueville or tripping into the boat. He really can't/rather shouldn't call much of anything. However he does. &lt;.&lt; c/c river for the missed draws, or if you've seen him do it (I haven't), c/f to his naked A/AT.

Shipit, you are such a station here. AK is really drawing to a chop at best, but meh, metagame will pay off I'm sure (I have to stop #@$%#@$% reading MSNL and thinking about metagame).
my 2c

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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I didn't know you were 2p2 and to be honest i should have and normally do fold that river. I kinda figured you'd be expecting me to fold a weaker ace or busted draw there so there was a chance i was good some % of the time.

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I dont understand this though. If he sees you calling light he should assume youre station-ish so why would you think that he thinks you would fold river with a top pair hand. I mean it worked out this time that he did but I dont understand the logic behind this, what is this some reverse mind game that Im missing.

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Hey, I probably should have folded, I just figured that given what had happened earlier he would 3 barrel hands he'd normally shutdown with on the river along with the hands i've been taken to town with.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Im not questioning your call or fold, thats irrelevant, Im curious why you thought this way though. Like what made you think he would be more likely to push you off a hand where he saw you calling light a few hands back? Im just saying normally if someone calls light you bluff less and vb more obviously. I would think if you made some big fold or what appeared to be a big fold then he would be more likely to apply pressure, no?

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

Pro/shitip,

I agree with pro that the thinking of "oh he probably thinks I have a busted draw here some of the time...". WTF why would he assume you have a busted draw some of the time here? Also as far as bluffing AT off on the river, I doubt shipit is cold calling ATo, and its unlikely he's cc'ing ATs.

When I first saw the hand I assumed shipit likely had AQ. The other hand it could be is AK. The crutch to making this river bet profitable is more that he folds AK (and has it regularly). With someone who has some fishy parts to his stats (no offence) I wasn't very into the river bluff. If he called the turn with AK he probably made the assumption you were bluffing spades or whatever pretty often (or KQ, whatever). Which makes his turn call good. With all the draws bricking he will likely still think his ace is good and call.

I swear to god pro your always in line with my thinking now. Its kinda freaky.

Oh btw, if I had AK on the river I would think of myself in a tough spot. I would likely bet something like half pot as a blocker knowing you'll call AK and raise AQ. I wouldn't like checking the river for fear of you trying to valuebet AK (which is actually more of a bluff).

edit: Oh and ship you chimed in with I'm a fish and station-called here way too early. Gotta give it some time man...

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

fishy stats ? :&lt; was only 40 hands yo

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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I swear to god pro your always in line with my thinking now. Its kinda freaky.

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I guess that means Ive improved alot since I started posting here.

Re: NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er
 

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fishy stats ? :&lt; was only 40 hands yo

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aggression factor of 1, cold called 87cc OOP in BB. Two things most tags don't do (altho cold calling weakish middle card hands like 87cc/J9cc is becoming more common).

I'm saying the AF of 1 is bad, and the cold calling of those suited connector type hands could be bad. The two added together would give me an impression that your not that great.