Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

The discussion in this unfortunate thread generated some interest about my short-handed statistics for 3 reasons:

1. I made what is all things being equal a bad fold in the sample hand;

2. Some posters suggested I fold too much based on my comments in this thread ; and

3. I misrepresented my WtSD # in the first thread.

These stats represent about 25k hands at 5/10 and 7k hands at 10/20 (I started playing 6-max exclusively in June). Without further ado here they are:

VPIP: 27.6
PFR: 20.8
AG (post-flop): 2.38
WtSD: 35.5 (I misstated this as 45 in the referenced thread)
W$SD: 54.7

I post this primarily for those few posters who may be interested from the previous discussion. Any comments are welcome. I promise not to be defensive. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Cheers...

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

35 is a bit low for a 27/20 style. Might be OK for 23/18 but you probably fold too much for 27/20.

Overall agression looks about right.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

It's tough to say without playing with you what is correct because there are different successful styles. That said my went to SD at 20/40 and 30/60 6m is between 40 and 42. At lower games with more honest opponents I'm sure it would be a bit lower. If you want to post your party poker name (I assume that's your site) people could be helpful but I also would totally understand not wanting to do that.

-DeathDonkey

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

40 wsd appalls me. i would hemorrhage chips.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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35 is a bit low for a 27/20 style. Might be OK for 23/18 but you probably fold too much for 27/20.

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I'd say exactly the opposite. The tighter you are preflop the more inclined you should be to go to showdown.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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35 is a bit low for a 27/20 style. Might be OK for 23/18 but you probably fold too much for 27/20.

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I'd say exactly the opposite. The tighter you are preflop the more inclined you should be to go to showdown.

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The tighter you are, the less your opponents will stay with you to showdown, too. Hard to tell the overall effect, but I think that's what you're saying anyway.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

By looking at those statistics I can tell you that:

1) You play poker
2) You are not retarded

I hope you have found this analysis insightful. Any advice that people try and give you based on a set of statistics like that should usually be ignored.

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That said my went to SD at 20/40 and 30/60 6m is between 40 and 42.

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The WTSD isn't important so much as the won showdown when saw flop (multiply WTSD x W$ASD) it should come out somewhere around at least .2 in the party games if you're tight. If you can faciliate it, you'd much rather be 33WTSD 60W$ASD than 40WTSD 50W$ASD.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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35 is a bit low for a 27/20 style. Might be OK for 23/18 but you probably fold too much for 27/20.

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I'd say exactly the opposite. The tighter you are preflop the more inclined you should be to go to showdown.

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The tighter you are, the less your opponents will stay with you to showdown, too. Hard to tell the overall effect, but I think that's what you're saying anyway.

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For observant opponents yes. But I think in general you starting out with better showdown material is a more important factor.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

[ QUOTE ]
By looking at those statistics I can tell you that:

1) You play poker
2) You are not retarded

I hope you have found this analysis insightful. Any advice that people try and give you based on a set of statistics like that should usually be ignored.

[ QUOTE ]
That said my went to SD at 20/40 and 30/60 6m is between 40 and 42.

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The WTSD isn't important so much as the won showdown when saw flop (multiply WTSD x W$ASD) it should come out somewhere around at least .2 in the party games if you're tight. If you can faciliate it, you'd much rather be 33WTSD 60W$ASD than 40WTSD 50W$ASD.

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No you wouldn't.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

Uh, mathematically speaking, yes you would rather be winning the same amount of showdowns but be paying less overall to see showdowns.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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That said my went to SD at 20/40 and 30/60 6m is between 40 and 42.

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The WTSD isn't important so much as the won showdown when saw flop (multiply WTSD x W$ASD) it should come out somewhere around at least .2 in the party games if you're tight. If you can faciliate it, you'd much rather be 33WTSD 60W$ASD than 40WTSD 50W$ASD.

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Bryce, Care to elaborate about the importance of WTSD x W$ASD for the statistically challenged ? For my last 80k hands I am .199

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

There's 4 things that can happen when you see a flop. (Win,Lose) money x (Showdown,Noshowdown). WtSD and W$@SD don't tell the whole story - to find these 4 frequencies you need to use WtSD, W$SD and W$WSF

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

Would higher/lower values imply you were running good/bad (or just sucked)?

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

It can imply both things. A very high WTSD could mean that you are a donkey that calls down too much. But if your WTSD and W$SD both went up then you probably are running good.

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Would higher/lower values imply you were running good/bad (or just sucked)?

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It depends on a lot of things. Your showdown values don't just represent how much you like to call down, they also depend on how well you value bet, how often you pull good river bluffs, how often you force a showdown by semi-bluffing and betting the river, the games you're in, etc.

There's only a finite amount of total showdowns that you're going to be able to win out of any given sample, though. If you went to showdown 35% of the time and won, say 10,000 showdowns over a sample it would imply better hand reading (or simply more energy spent handreading, especially if you 2-3 table or something) than someone who won 10,000 showdowns over a sample of the same size in the same games, but when to showdown 42% of the time (ie Poetmagician). All other things equal, you'd make a lot more money too. Using a statistic like this to determine when you go to showdown at the table, though, wouldn't make any sense. When should you go to showdown? When it's profitable to go to showdown! (duh) Wether or not it's profitable for you to go to showdown in any given hand is completely independent of how often you go to showdown.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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Wether or not it's profitable for you to go to showdown in any given hand is completely independent of how often you go to showdown.


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I disagree. If you're a total showdown monkey and your opponent knows this, when he bets the river you should fold more than someone who is known to fold a lot on the river. If you see what I mean.

Guy.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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I disagree. If you're a total showdown monkey and your opponent knows this, when he bets the river you should fold more than someone who is known to fold a lot on the river. If you see what I mean.

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This is still talking about the immediate expectation on a call or fold.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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By looking at those statistics I can tell you that:

1) You play poker
2) You are not retarded

I hope you have found this analysis insightful. Any advice that people try and give you based on a set of statistics like that should usually be ignored.

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1. Most sessions, at least.
2. I could be an idiot savant.
3. I only posted these becaue a number of posters who were quite indulgent regarding the retarded crap I was posting yesterday were interested in my stats and I thought posting them was the least I could do considering their restraint in not simply flaming the [censored] out of me.

That said, I don't personally find stat posts very useful. It's just not my orientation. I tend to ignore my own for the most part and focus on using PT to review hands I screwed up and evaluate the performance of specific hands in specific game types and from specific positions.

I do appreciate you succinct analysis. Thanks.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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It's tough to say without playing with you what is correct because there are different successful styles. That said my went to SD at 20/40 and 30/60 6m is between 40 and 42. At lower games with more honest opponents I'm sure it would be a bit lower. If you want to post your party poker name (I assume that's your site) people could be helpful but I also would totally understand not wanting to do that.

-DeathDonkey

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Thanks for the offer, DD. But I think I will pass for now and besides I'm not currently playing on Party.

I do think I would SD more if I was playing more HU style tables. The 5/10 and to a lessor extent 10/20 are full of chronic cold-callers and pots are more often than not multiway to the turn and not infrequently at the river. In these games I find it profitable to tighten up, play fewer hands and win more pots which of course tend to be large. This pushes the WtSD number down.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

Bryce:

Show me where I'm wrong here.

Player 1 goes to showdown 33% and wins 58%. Out of 100 hands where he sees the flop he wins about 19 showdowns.

Player 2 goes to showdown 40% and wins 50%. Out of 100 hands where he sees the flop he wins about 20 showdowns.

So player 2 goes to showdown 7 more times but wins one more pot. The average pot probably isn't 7 BB but player 2 isn't necessarily paying 1 BB for all those showdowns considering some rivers will go check-check when player 1 would have made a thin value bet. If the numbers closer to paying 5 BB to win that one extra pot, it looks a lot more like both players are winning the same. I do agree that player 1 is probably working harder at reading hands.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

I thought 33 and 58 would yield .2, which was kind of the point I was getting at.

To deomnstrate, though, let's say that the average hand that goes to showdown has 9BB in it. Player A has a VPIP of 26% and is 33/58 for showdowns. Player B has a VPIP of 26% and is 40/50 for showdowns.

Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

Also, I said 33/60 in my post.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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I thought 33 and 58 would yield .2, which was kind of the point I was getting at.

To deomnstrate, though, let's say that the average hand that goes to showdown has 9BB in it. Player A has a VPIP of 26% and is 33/58 for showdowns. Player B has a VPIP of 26% and is 40/50 for showdowns.

Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite.

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Ha, I think you edited that to "slight favorite" before I could quote. With that change I agree with your statement. Basically, it's close. The only point I was trying to make is that if I'm seeing more showdowns I must win at least one of them to justify the expense. You are right that you'd rather be 33/61 than 40/50, but I think 33/58 and 40/50 end up being pretty close, just stylistically different. I imagine you bet/fold more than me and I check/call more than you.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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Also, I said 33/60 in my post.

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Yup. I was adjusting the numbers to make a point. I agree that you'd rather be 33/60 than 40/50. Basically, player 2 is picking 7 more showdowns that he loses in that case.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

I know, I was just trying to show that saying things like "you should go to showdown X amount of the time" is quite silly.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

Hoi, as Bryce said, these stats you provide doesn't say much.

But if you posted a screendump of the detailed stats page and perhaps some position stats, maybe someone could hint about possible leaks in your game.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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Uh, mathematically speaking, yes you would rather be winning the same amount of showdowns but be paying less overall to see showdowns.

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Okay, I see how you've framed the problem now. But I also think that someone with a 60% W$SD in aggressive online games would be playing sub-optimatially.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

Over 225K hands of 10/20 6max and up I have a WTSD of 44 and W$SD at 50...of course I suck.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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Over 225K hands of 10/20 6max and up I have a WTSD of 44 and W$SD at 50...of course I suck.

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No way dude, that's awesome. What do you average at showdown (filter tab)?

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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Over the course of a 100 hands player A will see a showdown 8.5% of the time and win a showdown 4.9% of the time. Player B will see a showdown 10.4% of the time and win a showdown 5.2% of the time. Player A makes 44.1BB/100 winning showdowns and player B makes 46.8BB/100 winning showdowns. Player B, though, is paying to see 2 more showdowns per 100 hands. It's difficult to quantify the cost of going to showdown, but I would suspect that it comes out fairly close to even, with a lean towards player A being a slight favorite.


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You have to keep in mind the fact that player B might make some bet-sized mistakes, but player A is making pot-sized mistakes.

Player A may well be in better shape if the bulk of his "bad" folds come on the flop, but if they are coming on the turn or river, player B is definately better off.


I'd be interested to see a comparison of the FF FT FR and W$w/oSD numbers of ~40/50 and ~33/60 type players with substantially similar preflop stats.


Also, I think it's a mistake to assume that the average pot sizes will be the same for these two players.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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You have to keep in mind the fact that player B might make some bet-sized mistakes, but player A is making pot-sized mistakes.

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Repeating something from a book designed for 3/6 B&M games in 2002 has nothing to do with what goes on in a forum like this. There are no pot sized errors, bet sized errors, or magical fairies that will shower you with gold if you protect your hand. There is only value won and lost, calculated to two decimal places, in search of a bigger bottom line.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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You have to keep in mind the fact that player B might make some bet-sized mistakes, but player A is making pot-sized mistakes.

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Repeating something from a book designed for 3/6 B&M games in 2002 has nothing to do with what goes on in a forum like this. There are no pot sized errors, bet sized errors, or magical fairies that will shower you with gold if you protect your hand. There is only value won and lost, calculated to two decimal places, in search of a bigger bottom line.

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All mmcd is saying is "fold early, call late", which is sound advice for any limit hold 'em game.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

just to let you guys know, ive played a 30/21 (filtered for 6 handed) style with a 31-33 wtsd for the longest time.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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Over 225K hands of 10/20 6max and up I have a WTSD of 44 and W$SD at 50...of course I suck.

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No way dude, that's awesome. What do you average at showdown (filter tab)?

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I assume your asking my BB/Hand at SD and that is .39 and that is 32K hands out of the 225K hands

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

You're like Poetmagician then. I can never figure out how he makes so much money yet averages so little at showdown. Granted, his VPIP is like 1.5x greater than mine, but anything much below 1.1BB/hand at showdown and my winrate breaks even. Like, there's no way, in my mind, that he can win that much money unimproved somehow.

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You have to keep in mind the fact that player B might make some bet-sized mistakes, but player A is making pot-sized mistakes.

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With all due respect to Lee Jones, 2002 wants this gem of stupidity back. We're not playing 3/6 B&M here. There are no pot sized errors, bet sized errors, or magical fairies that will shower you with gold if you protect your hand. There is only value won and lost, calculated to two decimal places, in search of a bigger bottom line.

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It makes no difference how you conceptualize it. If a 33/60 makes a 2 or 3 bad turn or river folds in 6-9bb pots, the 50/40 will have to make quite a few losing calls before they're back to even footing.

And when you talk about the extra cost of going to showdown that a 50/40 bears, I don't think it's as much as you think.

In certain spots, a 50/40 might check/call where 33/60 would bet/fold, or bet/call where a 33/60 might c/r and fold to a 3-bet. Also, in some spots you earn money by going to showdown. Players that see more showdowns are might be better at inducing bluffs on the river when they have the lead OOP. I'm not saying there's no extra cost, but I think there's definately situations where some players spend the same amount on a fold as others do on a showdown.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

yah i forgot to mention that. i take alot of bet/fold lines which is why my wtsd is so low.

Re: Hoi Polloi\'s highly anticipated stat post
 

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Also, in some spots you earn money by going to showdown. Players that see more showdowns are might be better at inducing bluffs on the river when they have the lead OOP. I'm not saying there's no extra cost, but I think there's definately situations where some players spend the same amount on a fold as others do on a showdown.

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This is correct. Bet-fold lines, by definition, cannot induce bluffs. Actually, they can induce bluffs, which is part of the problem with them, but you aren't calling down those bluffs.

In any event, I definitely take a pot-oriented thought process when I play. The first order of business is to figure out if I have a material probability of getting my opponent to make an incorrect fold. The second order of business is making sure that I don't play myself off my hand. Then I worry about collecting value, or minimizing loss.

Of course, it is far more nuanced than that. But from a 30000-foot level, the betting stucture of limit hold 'em is highly conductive to seeing a lot of showdowns.

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yah i forgot to mention that. i take alot of bet/fold lines which is why my wtsd is so low.

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I get out of line postflop a lot against guys with stats like yours.

I really don't understand how you can continue to be +ev taking a lot of bet/fold lines when everyone can see you have WTSD in the low 30's. Either your opponents are horrible at adjusting, or you're getting blown off lots of hands.

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the betting stucture of limit hold 'em is highly conductive to seeing a lot of showdowns.

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I was thinking about this a bit today, and I think it's a matter of game texture more than anything else. I'm at about 41/53 over my last ~200k hands, and I've always been in that general area for online short games. But, if were to go play in a 6-handed 20 or 40 game at foxwoods, I'd probably be around 29/67 and winning something like 5-7 bb/100