*** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

BUF @ NYJ 4:05 PM
HOU @ SD 4:05 PM
JAC @ TB 4:05 PM
WAS @ NE 4:15 PM
NO @ SF 4:15 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

The only one I got is NE/WAS Over 48.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

what are people thinking about HOU @ SD if they have to play in arizona, or even possible houston? also anyone think hte fire will be distracting enough to players that they will play significantly worse?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
what are people thinking about HOU @ SD if they have to play in arizona, or even possible houston? also anyone think hte fire will be distracting enough to players that they will play significantly worse?

[/ QUOTE ]
This is exactly what I'm thinking. I think San Diego's mind will be partly focused on the fires, and when dealing with a 3-4 Houston team that's trying to really make a push in this league I don't think it'll be an easy game for them.

With Eric Parker out, Jackson battling a shoulder injury, and everyone's mind on their homes and families in the San Diego area, coming against a Houston team who's mad at their loss last week (as well as knowing they came within a TD of Indy in the 3rd week) will be nothing short of a tough game.

I don't how the spread got so high, but getting +365 on the Houston moneyline, I had to take them for the upset. I just don't think they'll let this game through their grip.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]

With Eric Parker out, Jackson battling a shoulder injury

[/ QUOTE ]
As an SD fan, I'll trade Parker for Chris Chambers any day of the week.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

1u BUF @ NYJ -2.5
1u HOU +10 @ SD
1u JAC +3.5 @ TB
1u WAS +17 @ NE
1u NO @ SF +3

had to buy .5 points in some games like 49ers and Redskins.
(pinnacle)

Good luck all, enjoy the games!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Trying for a middle on the WAS/NE game. I've got:

WAS +17 -115 5.75u
NE -15.5 -110 5.5u

4 outcomes:
1) NE wins by 18 or more - lose 1st, win 2nd, -0.75u
2) NE wins by exactly 17 - push 1st, win 2nd, +11u
3) NE wins by exactly 16 - win both, +22.5u
4) NE wins by 15 or less or loses - win 1st, lose 2nd, -0.5u

The bet is +EV if the probability of case 2 or 3 occurring is > ~8%. From the analysis I've done, I think this is true.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

The Jets at -2.5 looks amazing to me. A few weeks ago they were -3 @Buffalo. The Bills have not played a single road game since. So either the Bills were the value pick of the year in that 1st game or there's a big overeaction to them playing some competetive ball at home.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Just wanted to post my teaser here:
Buffalo +9
San Francisco +9
Washington +23
(Risk 1.89u to win 3.41u)

I was trying to do as close to a Wong as possible, but Bodog won't let you tease the Cle/StL or the Ten/Oak game. Since their 3-teamers pay significantly better than their 2-teamers and the teaser already had some extra value from SF getting +3 when market value was +2 and Washington was getting a point better than market value as well, I decided to throw the Skins in there.

I think that the Redskins would be a good value play just betting them ATS and since it's so hard for an NFL team to win by more than three scores, I think there's actually some decent value in moving it across the 20 and 21. There isn't enough of a sample size to test it accurately since so few NFL teams are ever favored by more than 15.5, but I think with the spread this high, there's some value there.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

i just lost AA AI PF to KK for 400 dollars

so i'm gonna gamble it up

i have like 5 teasers

6 Team Teaser #91014066
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
(206) Chicago Bears +½ Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (205) Detroit Lions
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL WEEK 8
(207) Indianapolis Colts -1 Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (208) Carolina Panthers
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
Game is being played at Wembley Stadium - London, England.
(209) New York Giants vs. (210) Miami Dolphins Under 54 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(215) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. (216) Cincinnati Bengals Over 42 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 8
(221) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (222) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 26 Sun@4:05p
(Teased 6.0 points)
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 8
(226) New England Patriots -11 Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (225) Washington Redskins
(Teased 6.0 points)
Risk $50.00 to win $300.00