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-   -   Poker Tournament Formula stdev calculations (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=446100)

TimTimSalabim 07-08-2007 05:17 PM

Poker Tournament Formula stdev calculations
 
Just read through the book, and maybe I'm being a nit or just missing something, but aren't the standard deviations for tournaments in the Appendix being calculated incorrectly? The formula for variance is (P/B - 1)^^2, which would be correct if the mean (expectation) is zero, which is true for a break-even player, but not for an advantage player. Seems to me that for a 200% advantage player you'd want to use (P/B - 3)^^2, which yields a slightly different total variance from what is given in the book (I calculated ~49.5 instead of 53.255).

(sorry if this has already been brought up, I skimmed that huge thread and couldn't find anything on it)

Dima2000123 07-09-2007 02:50 PM

Re: Poker Tournament Formula stdev calculations
 
You just answered your own question. It doesn't matter much. What edge is he supposed to use anyway? Everyone's edge is different.

I also wouldn't be surprised if assuming 0% edge maximizes the possible variance, which is a correct thing to do when variance depends on expected value, and expected value is unknowable.


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