Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

<font color="blue">As I played through this hand I realized it was little more than a big math puzzle. I thought uNL might get some benefits out of seeing it.

Villain is a bit on the loose side: he runs 77/5/1.2 over about 100 hands. His bets usually mean he's got a hand, but they do NOT indicate a monster. Think of his bets as meaning "I have at least a pair."

In case you haven't seen these before, I'm sitting at one of Full Tilt's Cap NL tables. That means that the betting is always capped at 30 BBs -- in other words, any stack bigger than 30 BBs is considered to be only 30 for any given hand. In other words, ignore the stack sizes -- everybody at the table has $30.</font>

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, $30 Betting Cap, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $120.75
Hero (BTN): $259.60
SB: $73.80
BB: $114.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $1, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $4

Flop: ($11.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $14</font>, Hero calls $7

<font color="blue">My c-bet gets check-minraised.

First question: can I call this raise? Why or why not?</font>

Turn: ($39.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $11 all-in</font>....

<font color="blue">After check-raising the flop, villain open-pushes the turn.

Second question: can I call this bet? Why or why not?</font>

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

if u r calling the cr on the flop i hope to god u call the turn bet.

that being said being so shallow (which i think is extremely lame) i cant fathom a call of the cr on the flop given all we have is 2 overs and a backdoor flushdraw. doesnt seem like we have enough equity against a pair or better here

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

Well you have to put in 11 to win 50.50. You have 10 outs roughly 20% to win. So you need to be getting roughly 5 to 1 to make this an even money play assuming that our Aces and Kings are outs and he only has a pair. But with the flush possible you might have to catch another diamond giving you 9 outs assuming thtat 2 of them are not already dead and he doesnt have the Ace. I dont think that calling here will be +ev.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

I sometimes spite-call this flop raise, but it's just incorrect. Our outs are just Aces and Kings, and even those aren't sure outs (AJ and KJ are very much in the villain's range). If you are convinced your AK are good, you're calling 7 into about 40, but your odds to hit on the turn are a little more than 1-10. Seems bad, and calling definitely commits you.


On the turn, you have to call 11 into 50, so about 5-1, which which is approximately your flush odds, but it's still a bit lower than is correct, plus your flush might be dead to his A-high flush, so I can't call here either, I don't think.


If we step back and look at the whole hand from the flop, once he minraises, he's essentially pushing. From here it looks like you have to call his 7+his 11 stack, 18 dollars into a 50 dollar pot, with 6 outs, which may be possible iffy on all counts. No thank you.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

Assuming his flop check raise means I have atleast a pair and his vpip of 70 I guess we could assume following range on the flop:

AJ-J7
22-TT

I excluded lower jacks because his vpip doesnt mean he has the same high vpip for a raise. JJ/TT are excluded as pairs as they are in his ranging raise...

Stricly going with his bets meaning i have atleast a pair, nothing changes on the turn...

thus against that range we have an equity of

Board: 2c 7d Jd Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.934% 33.93% 00.00% 1299 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 66.066% 66.07% 00.00% 2529 0.00 { TT-22, J7s+, J7o+ }

Thus we should call the turn for sure.

Flop looks a bit different:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.753% 24.75% 00.00% 22790 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 75.247% 75.25% 00.00% 69280 0.00 { TT-22, J7s+, J7o+ }

But we are still getting good odds. Still opting towards a fold.

Issues with this however are that we dont know what check minraises mean and that we dont know with what he calls preflop raises, he might limp junk and fold it preflop, possibly shifting his range upwards to mayb j10+.

And he probably wont c/r flop with 33-66 and continue with them on the turn, making this more and more a fold.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
His bets usually mean he's got a hand, but they do NOT indicate a monster. Think of his bets as meaning "I have at least a pair."

[/ QUOTE ]

um . . . my experience differs

anyways, turn call is probably neutral ev. could only have 7 flush outs and 4 queen outs, although none of those might be outs. we might have as many as 9 + 4 + 6 outs, but i doubt it since our overs might be no good. i'd say on average we have about 8 to 10 outs, which maks it barely neutral ev.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:

http://i56.photobucket.com/albums/g1...ams/77vpip.gif
Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:

J9,JT,QJ,KJ,AJ
87,76
Let's do all the pairs as well - 22-TT (even though pokey says sets aren't in his range, I think a c/r flop, shove turn could definitely put them in his range)

Now, it's only $7 to call and the pot is 11.5+7+14=32.5
so we're getting about 4.64:1. This is pretty huge, and even with 2 overcards we can probably call. Let's run pokerstove against his range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.243% 25.24% 00.00% 37486 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 74.757% 74.76% 00.00% 111014 0.00 { TT-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

In this spot, we only need around 3:1 to call. (This is a number you should have committed to memory - overcards vs. a made pair needs around 3:1. Coincidentally, overpairs vs a lower 2 pair also have this same ratio.. i.e. AA vs 72 on a K72 board).

Turn: Well, we have a gutshot now, so we have a few more outs. Without pokerstoving this, my guess it's a pretty borderline call. ( 4.6:1 here ).

Using the same range as before, we now account for the turn T.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.438% 34.44% 00.00% 2182 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 65.562% 65.56% 00.00% 4154 0.00 { TT-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

So, we only need around 1.85:1 here.


So IMO, if your read is correct, yes, we can call both bets.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

I'm going to give us 5 outs on the flop, to represent the chance he has better than a pair. 5 outs*2 = 10%

i'm assuming if we make a pair of kings or better we stack him.

i'm assuming we check the turn and we check back if we can.

i'm assuming we are behind.

i am assuming we don't usually have odds to call if he shoves turn.

our equity on the flop call is:

equity if we only see turn + implied equity + equity if we see river for free * chance we see the river for free = EV on the call.

equity if we only see turn: 0.1($39.50) - $7 = -$3.05

implied equity: 0.11*$11 = +$1.1

equity if we see the river for free = 0.1($39.5) = +$3.95

chance we see the river for free = ???

solving at EV = 0 to find the chance we see the river for free (x) to have a breakeven call:

-3.05 + 1.1 + x(3.95) = 0

1.95 = -x(3.95)

1.95/3.95 = -x = 0.49

i've messed up a - somewhere but don't sweat it.

we need him to check the turn &gt;50% of the time to have a +EV call on the flop.

i vote that he checks turn less than a third of the time here.

edit: hmm i should probably have a chance we only see the turn = 1 - chance we see river term in there. that gives a different answer and makes a call more likely to be good. i wll correct later.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

Getting ~ 4.5-1 on the flop, I think its close either way. Assuming our if an ace or king is good thats 6 outs, ~1 out for the runner straight/flush combo. So 7 outs at best with not much behind, like I said.. its close.

Having called the flop, calling on the turn is a for sure yes. 5-1 when a queen or diamond likely wins, and any ace or king might win.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:

http://i56.photobucket.com/albums/g1...ams/77vpip.gif
Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:


[/ QUOTE ]

Just because he has a 77% VPIP doesn't mean he's calling PFR with 77%. I'd guess more like 30%. That narrows his range to about half his limping hands.

You're getting 3.5:1 on the call of the c/r. If he only has a pair, and doesn't have an A or K kicker, calling is right, given the odds. On the turn, with 12 outs, getting almost 5:1, you're calling (about 4:1 to hit). Not to mention, he could have QJ.

I guess it depends on how much of his range is made up of naked one pairs vs. pair w/ A or K kicker, or 2-pair or sets. I don't see him bluffing on the flop.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:

http://i56.photobucket.com/albums/g1...ams/77vpip.gif
Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.

Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:


[/ QUOTE ]

Just because he has a 77% VPIP doesn't mean he's calling PFR with 77%. I'd guess more like 30%. That narrows his range to about half his limping hands.

You're getting 3.5:1 on the call of the c/r. If he only has a pair, and doesn't have an A or K kicker, calling is right, given the odds. On the turn, with 12 outs, getting almost 5:1, you're calling (about 4:1 to hit). Not to mention, he could have QJ.

I guess it depends on how much of his range is made up of naked one pairs vs. pair w/ A or K kicker, or 2-pair or sets. I don't see him bluffing on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are getting 4.5:1 on the flop no?

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:

http://i56.photobucket.com/albums/g1...ams/77vpip.gif
Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes he is playing 77% of his overall hands but he is most likely playing tighter when facing a raise. If there are 4 limpers and he is in the SB, his range is most likely going to be ATC. If someone pushes all in his range is going to be significantly tighter. If he limps UTG and folds to a raise it will still add to this VPIP.

His range is not that wide in this situation...but still very loose

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

i know this is getting a little bit away from the question, but in this format, i like a 1/2 pot cbet, because people tend to call or raise when they have something, and give up when they have nothing. its still pretty easy to get all of your money in when you have a good hand, too.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

This has been an interesting discussion so far.

A few things to clarify before the conversation continues:

1. Several of you have mentioned that he will play tighter against a raise than when limping. This is absolutely true, but this seems to be one of those guys who rarely limp-folds. He's not tightening up to 20% or even close, here. Figure him for calling with roughly half his limping range, maybe more. (Seriously -- that's why I'm at the cap table.)

2. The flop check-raise just says "I have a hand." Don't read unspecified power into the fact that it's a minraise; this guy is positively terrible.

----------

Here are a couple follow-up questions that need to be asked, because people seem to be all over the map on it:

How many outs does hero have on the flop? How many outs does hero have on the turn?

Specify any discounting you do, and why.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

My poker math needs improving so let me take a stab...

I'm going to assume that villain has at best a pair but if we hit an A or K vilain may make two pair. We therefore need to discount some of our 6 outs.

So, let me take 2 of our outs away and say that at best we have 4 outs.

4 outs gives us a 9% chance to hit or ~10/1.
The pot is currently 11.5 + 7 + 14 = 32.5
To call is thus 32.5/7 or ~4.5/1
Seems like a fold to me on the flop?

On the turn our outs have increased since any Q gives a gutter and any diamond gives us the 2nd nut flush. Our outs have now increased to 4 + 4 + 9 = 17 but again we have to assume that several must be discounted. Here I'm taking a real stab in the dark and saying that 10 are good?

10 outs gives us a 22% chance to hit or 3.6/1
The pot is now 39.5 + 11 = 50.5
To call is 50.5/11 or 4.5/1
Look like we could call profitably here.

Where is my math flawed?

edited intial outs logic.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

Almost feel like I'm missing something because this hand doesn't seem difficult at all. If we assume opponent has any pair or better on this flop, then we must improve. Our possible outs are 3 Aces, 3 Kings, and ~2 outs total for backdoor flush plus backdoor straight. So max 8 outs. Slightly discount this for reverse domination or better than 1 pair hands, we have somewhere around 6 to 7 outs, call it 6.5.

It is safe to assume that if we call here, our opponent is always putting the last $11 in on the turn, so our odds are 43.5 to 7 on the flop. If we had 7 clean outs this would be about even/neutral EV, but we probably have a little less, so it's -EV. Now if we could include some bluffs/semibluffs into our opponent's range, a call could have some merit, but otherwise it's a fold.

The turn is one of the best cards we could hope for when calling the flop. Easy call with the odds we're getting.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
My poker math needs improving so let me take a stab...

I'm going to assume that villain has at best a pair but if we hit an A or K vilain may make two pair. We therefore need to discount some of our 6 outs.

So, let me take 2 of our outs away and say that at best we have 4 outs.

4 outs gives us a 9% chance to hit or ~10/1.
The pot is currently 11.5 + 7 + 14 = 32.5
To call is thus 32.5/7 or ~4.5/1
Seems like a fold to me on the flop?

On the turn our outs have increased since any Q gives a gutter and any diamond gives us the 2nd nut flush. Our outs have now increased to 4 + 4 + 9 = 17 but again we have to assume that several must be discounted. Here I'm taking a real stab in the dark and saying that 10 are good?

10 outs gives us a 22% chance to hit or 3.6/1
The pot is now 39.5 + 11 = 50.5
To call is 50.5/11 or 4.5/1
Look like we could call profitably here.

Where is my math flawed?

edited intial outs logic.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop you failed to count backdoor flush/straight combo's. I think each is worth &lt; 1 out, but together make 1.5 outs or so. I always just count it as 1 out when I play.

I also think discounting 2 outs is a bit much, but thats just my opinion. I don't know much about discounting outs, but 2 seems high.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

1) I fold if you have a solid read that this is a pair or better. You are getting 32.5:7 which is about 4.5:1. If he stacks off his last 11 even if an OC hits on the turn (which he probably will) you are getting around 6:1, but you are around 8:1 to improve on the turn, assuming villain doesn't have you reverse dominated.

2) You have 17 outs to beat a pair (4 Q, 3 A, 3 K, and the 7 haven't counted yet), and you are getting betting than 4:1. Easy call.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

Since this thread seems to have run its course, let me make my own comments to summarize my thinking.

On the flop I think hero has a close but +EV call. We're getting 25-to-7, or 3.5-to-1 odds, with another 11 behind that's likely going in if hero wants it there. If we're drawing to six outs that LOOKS unprofitable, but there are other considerations:

1. Hero has position. Villain might get frightened when we smooth-call the flop check-raise and give us a free card, or try to "slowplay" his top pair. If we get a free card our odds of hitting change from 6.8-to-1 to 3.1-to-1, making this safely profitable.

2. Diamonds could be good (semi-)bluffing cards for us. They're certainly not full outs, but they could easily scare a 1.2-aggro opponent into check/calling or possibly even check/folding. If 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits the board, I can check behind with mondo outs to a winner. Even better, if villain checks when a diamond hits I can make a very profitable push: getting 5-to-1 odds on what becomes a strong draw (14 outs or so) and also having some folding equity. After all, bad villains make bad choices including bad laydowns, and position gives us the information and leverage to let our opponent make a huge FTOP mistake by folding 87s to our turn push. Always be on the lookout for good bluffing opportunities: if you see them coming in advance you can build those "bluff outs" into your EV calculations.

3. Backdoor straights and flushes together count for an extra out or so.

Mostly because of the chance that villain slows down on the turn, I think the flop call is +EV.

As to the turn call, I just got a CRAPLOAD of extra outs: three offsuit queens and eight diamonds (we already had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as an out). With a potential seventeen outs and getting nearly 5-to-1, this has become a very easy call even with some hefty discounting based on the possibility that we're further behind than we thought.

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

yea that is about the way i see tha hand too. the flop is blah. if u want to call fine but i tend to just dump it becuase it seems i get into awfully ghey spots on the turn or river when i hit top or w/e

Re: Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Mostly because of the chance that villain slows down on the turn, I think the flop call is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my opinion, this is really wrong. Check out how shallow you are playing - its almost impossible for villain to make a mistake on the turn given the odds you are forced to offer him. Id rather shove/fold the flop than take this line

As played turn call is obviously fine but I really dont like the flop.