4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t49256)
SB (t6315)
BB (t8913)
UTG (t6225)
MP1 (t20353)
MP2 (t31206)
Hero (t26125)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2000</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t1200.

Flop: (t3650) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t6838 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

I had been tight so far, but not too tight. Mostly taking down pots preflop, raise/folding one time preflop and taking a flip on the bubble with AK &gt; QQ.
Villains has been playing very tight so far, something around 5/2 or so, but I did not see him cold calling raies yet.

So do I have to call here or not? And as a side question: Would we call without our gutshot?

/edit: Forgot to mention, that we are itm.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

Fold. Not enough odds and dont call off 1/4 of your stack.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

I'm folding..we're not ahead of much and getting no price to call

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

Snap fold imo.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

This shortstacked BB is doing this with a wide array of hands.
You need to call 6.8 to win a ~18k pot, so you need roughly 0.37% equity for this call to be breakeven.

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

against 5/2 villain easy fold imo

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

[ QUOTE ]
Snap fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
A villain playing 5/2 probably isn't going to pull a stop and go, and he probably isn't calling off 1/4 of his stack with a weak hand. Snap fold imo indeed

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

Let's see, if A,Q,K are outs that's ~43% to win if we're behind. Without the gutshot it's ~25%. So it looks like a reasonable call with the gutshot but not without. Why is everyone folding this??

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

p.s. esp since it will be KQ or 89s sometimes

Re: 4/180 AQo OCs + GS vs. possible Stop N Go
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's see, if A,Q,K are outs that's ~43% to win if we're behind. Without the gutshot it's ~25%. So it looks like a reasonable call with the gutshot but not without. Why is everyone folding this??

[/ QUOTE ]

We need about 40% equity to call, and really the only hands in his range we have 40% equity against are K-Q, A-Q and air. If he has A-J or possibly even A-10 we have ~30%, if he has an overpair we have anywhere from ~30% to ~12%, if he has J-T we have just a gutshot, if he has a set we have the gutshot, and if he has A-K we're... dead to the gutshot the same as with a set or two pair. Against a very tight player you should probably be giving him credit here, even if you think his push looks like a draw.

On that subject, a pot-sized bet clearly commits both players to the hand, and betting the pot presumably with the intent of making the same bet all-in on the turn looks pretty strong, so I could see a lot of players value-shoving here, hoping you'll put them on a draw.