I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

Event 2, 1K buy-in, 263 plrs, first pays $88,400.

First hand of final Table action. I am second in Chips to Mark Seif.

Avg. Stack 80K, My Stack: 110K, Villain(3rd in chips)Stack: 95K. Seif has all the chips with 240K or so.

Blinds: 1500-3000, ante 300

I am in BB with JJ.

UTG (Villain): Limps 3000
4 seat: Limps 3000
5 seat: Limps 3000
SB: Call 1500
BB (me): JJ Raise to 23,000, I raise this much becasue at this point there is 18,000 in the pot and I would be happy to take it down.

UTG (Villain): moves all-in after limping utg for 95,000

Pot is 130K ish, 72K to call, would leave me with 15K (very short)if I call, if I fold leaves me with an average stack.

Villain was at other table when we were down to 2 tables and I have no line what-so-ever on his play other than he seems to be a very aggressive player.

What is my play? Please Help

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

With no reads, its a tough spot.

I push it in, hope to win a race against aq-ak.

On teh other hand, you want to stick around to heckle mark seif.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
With no reads, its a tough spot.

I push it in, hope to win a race against aq-ak.

On teh other hand, you want to stick around to heckle mark seif.

[/ QUOTE ]

plus I was one seat left of Seif, best seat at the table

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

Fun spot. Given the stakes and the fact that it's the first hand of the day, I'd tend to weight Villain's range heavily toward AA/KK and fold.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this much because at this point there is 18,000 in the pot and I would be happy to take it down.

[/ QUOTE ] right, and I'm sure that's how it appeared to the villain. So he can eliminate AA and KK from your range, maybe even QQ. Here's what you have shown him: you don't want any callers, and you've left yourself room to fold. Given that you were the BB raising 4 limpers, you could have done this with any two.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain was at other table when we were down to 2 tables and I have no line what-so-ever on his play other than he seems to be a very aggressive player

[/ QUOTE ] so call.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fun spot. Given the stakes and the fact that it's the first hand of the day, I'd tend to weight Villain's range heavily toward AA/KK and fold.

[/ QUOTE ] i think that is what the villain is counting on.

EDIT: Now, if I had actually been in your place facing the all-in push with my JJ, I would have folded, right after peeing in my pants and crying like a little girl .

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I raise this much because at this point there is 18,000 in the pot and I would be happy to take it down.

[/ QUOTE ] right, and I'm sure that's how it appeared to the villain. So he can eliminate AA and KK from your range, maybe even QQ. Here's what you have shown him: you don't want any callers, and you've left yourself room to fold. Given that you were the BB raising 4 limpers, you could have done this with any two.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain was at other table when we were down to 2 tables and I have no line what-so-ever on his play other than he seems to be a very aggressive player

[/ QUOTE ] so call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was part of my thought process.

I did forget to mention 2 things:

1) When he limped in I for some reason got the feeling he was strong....still..there is no way I am checking Js, because as I said b4 I have not played with him.

2) the way he shoved all-in. Once I completed my raise it was not clear the amount I was raising, I just cut out half 1K chips and half 500 chips, and I never announced an amount. This could have looked like a steal to him, or it could have looked very strong depending on the interpretation.

He said "All-in" just as I released my last raising chip as if it was his plan.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]

I did forget to mention 2 things:

1) When he limped in I for some reason got the feeling he was strong....still..there is no way I am checking Js, because as I said b4 I have not played with him.

2) the way he shoved all-in. Once I completed my raise it was not clear the amount I was raising, I just cut out half 1K chips and half 500 chips, and I never announced an amount. This could have looked like a steal to him, or it could have looked very strong depending on the interpretation.

He said "All-in" just as I released my last raising chip as if it was his plan.

[/ QUOTE ] Without prior experience with the villain, I don't think you should place too much emphasis on physical tells. He had plenty of time to consider possible moves as the play moved around the table and as you were making your raise.

The cliche about physical tells is that strong means weak and weak means strong. So is he being traditional (I don't want a call, so i'm going to appear strong) or tricky (I want a call, so i'm going to appear strong so that he thinks I'm weak).

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

of the hands you can put in his range, even with your classification of him as an aggressive player, the worst he can have here is aq. I give him credit for qq or better and pick a better spot to get my chips involved.

The problem with the raise is precisely the question in the op. You can't call any raise pre, especially from the first limper so in this spot it may not be a bad spot to check your option and re evaluate post flop.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

given the way the hand was played, i think i call here. you said he seemed to be agressive. i believe you said there was 18k in the pot so to a normal observer it would look like a good spot to steal the pot. given that you said he was agressive, why would he limp AK/QQ+. given that he has been agressive, hands like that for him should get paid off fairly easily.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

Whoa, I can't say I have played much live, but this seems like an easy call...

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

easy fold.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Whoa, I can't say I have played much live, but this seems like an easy call...

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

Call. You are getting almost 2:1 and he has AK.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

i would think chip ev and dollar ev diverge here. shouldnt that be applicable.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

88k for 1st place
43.1 for second
22
17
14
12
9.8
7.3
4.9 for 9th

With a real shot to play for first place money here with a fold, why would you want to call and pray for a flip? It just doesn't seem to make sense and I STRONGLY disagree with anyone who says this is an "easy call".

Winning the hand won't give you the tournament, losing the hand will almost guarantee you go out 8th or 9th. I'm certainly not saying we should fold for cash, but there's just not enough equity here for me to want to gamble here 9 handed when I'm SURE with our chipstack we can find a better spot.

I've been wrong before, and I may be wrong here. Someone please give me the +ev reasons for gambling 90% of our stack in this spot?

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
i would think chip ev and dollar ev diverge here. shouldnt that be applicable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. Also, live [censored] retards love this play with QQ+ which makes me like folding even better.

Also, how does this thread not have a Mark Seif can see your cards joke?

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

Alright, lets think about hands he might be limping UTG with 30bbs. Now he is probably not limping TT-KK/AK UTG. So we are looking at KQ-, low-middle PP, crap, and obviously AA and possibly KK (but less likely).
Now, as you stated there is 18k in the pot, and you are raising an extra 20k on top. Now looking from his point of view, this looks like a huge steal attempt and he can be shoving with a very large range here thinking that you will fold a lot or it will at worst be a coinflip.

I think that b/c of your huge raise you need to call the shove here. I think that in the future, that if you thought that UTG could have something that big, that you should try raising to 5xBB at most. Small-ball poker is ok.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

Mark Seif can see your cards.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Mark Seif can see your cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Weak

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

You could ask Mark Seif to play your hand for you ... ?

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

I'd fold and be really pissed about it and make a tilty resteal against Mark Seif with 103o, but he'd snap call me with J3 becuase he can see my cards.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

Wow. Like, don't raise that much. You managed to turn your hand into a bluff preflop with a single raise which is, well, wow. Yes, we have JJ. Yes, he could have AK.

But this is actually like KK or AA every time. Fold.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

I wouldnt mind just checking your option, esp if you dont know what to do now but I can see why you make the big raise.. what you should do, I dunno, close, think its a call.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

If you dont have a read on him, he doesnt have a read on the table either. Limping from EP without knowing whether limping is contagious at the table is a huge risk with AA/KK. At unknown tables I think those hands are more likely to min-raise. I think middle pairs are a huge part of his range and this is a reshove.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold and be really pissed about it and make a tilty resteal against Mark Seif with 103o, but he'd snap call me with J3 becuase he can see my cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, it is really funny that you say this.. I will get to it later

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

I FOLDED and I wanted to puke, especially because of the amazing pot odds I was getting and the decent chance I was racing vs. AK

I folded because…..

I still have a good stack of $87,000 or so with blinds at 1500/3000/300.

I could not see him bluffing off his whole stack on the first hand of the day.

There were three (3) short stacks of about 30K that were not going to last long.

Like someone mentioned: First was 88Kish, Ninth was 5Kish…

I felt it was most likely he had AA-QQ, AK, AQ….Felt like I was racing at best

I am One position to Mark Seif’s Left

I didn’t have a read on him, had no idea what the play meant. All I knew was that he open-raised a lot of pots at the other table (from what a friend told me), so the limp re-raise felt a little fishy



It sucks because I will never know if it was a good or bad laydown [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

You made a good lay down

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

So...how did you end up placing?

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

good fold given what i said earlier, and btw this is always QQ-AA and most often KK.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

Good laydown no matter what he had. If he did that with a small/mid pair or AQ, nr sir. He had balls then, to risk his whole stack on the first hand of a final table on that kind of hand. I agree, however, that you have to consider $EV and fold here, as much as it sucks. It would surprise me, however, to see that at a live FT. My guess is a race at best but more likely behind QQ+. With your stack size, you will have better spots. Also curious to know how you came out. Very tough spot.

Cheers

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold and be really pissed about it and make a tilty resteal against Mark Seif with 103o, but he'd snap call me with J3 becuase he can see my cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, it is really funny that you say this.. I will get to it later

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 2 of final table (Very Next Hand):

Late position Limper for 3,000 (same plyr limped last hand, just trying to see flops, def. not strong)

Button: Seif raises to bout 12,000
SB (Me): AJs

Pot has $22,500 in it a this point, I have bout 85K, Seif covers with bout 215K (after raise) Avg. stack is about 80K.

In this spot I think I have the best hand like 90% of the time…. What is my play??

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

tilt shove

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
i would think chip ev and dollar ev diverge here. shouldnt that be applicable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think this was true, so I ran ICM and I'm wrong.

ICM Numbers:
Hand Start - 30.8k
Fold - 27k
Call & Win - 45.5k
Call & Lose - 11k

So if you figure out the necessary Call&Win to Call&Lose ratio needed to equal 27k, it's 46.4%.
cEV wise, given the pot odds, you should only need 36% equity to call.

So it's a pretty big difference. JJ is 36% against QQ+,AK, but you'd need TT+,AQ+ to win 46% of the time.

I think you could have raised less. I doubt anyone plays it differently if you raise to 20k total.
Particularly if some of the limpers are the short stacks, they're going to either shove or fold to just about any raise.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
1) When he limped in I for some reason got the feeling he was strong....still..there is no way I am checking Js, because as I said b4 I have not played with him.


[/ QUOTE ]

Learn to trust your reads, man. If you felt he was strong, checking JJ for set value is probably the best play, precisely because he's gonna shove over your raise and you'll be left with posting this hand here. As played....fold. You can even fold this online sometimes. Live - always fold.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

http://www.cardplayer.com/tournaments/results/13482

Looks like you shoulda' shoved on that first hand. I'm assuming your screename corresponds somewhat with your real name. (Hindsight is 20/20).

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.cardplayer.com/tournaments/results/13482

Looks like you shoulda' shoved on that first hand. I'm assuming your screename corresponds somewhat with your real name. (Hindsight is 20/20).

[/ QUOTE ] come on, that's irrelevant.

My advice to OP: stop beating yourself up. I think everybody agrees you made a small mistake in raising so much. But in reality that small mistake was probably not the reason you busted out on the next hand (I'm assuming that's what you did). [censored] happens. Let it go.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

I shove the second hand against Seif. He's super aggro so you're ahead of his range, and he could look you up very light because you just lost a big hand and could be steaming.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

i know nothing about seif but it should be added in that if he's a weak player on your right with all of the chips this is more of a fold.

Re: I\'m at Final Table of Caesars Palace Classic. First hand.... Help!
 

In the second hand I would either shove or make it 34k planning to shove any flop if called.