TPGK facing river aggression
 

Normally river aggression is a real hand so this would be an easy fold, but I had no idea what to put villain on tbh. The fact that I checked the turn makes me look FOS I think, which makes this river a standard call, but Im unsure. Villain runs at 22/15/2.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $43.60
Hero (BB): $77.30
UTG: $47.30
MP: $15.50
CO: $52.20
BTN: $57.10

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, CO calls $2

Flop: ($5.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, CO calls $3.50

Turn: ($12.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($12.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $9</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $22</font>, Hero....

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

you have to call, this really looks like a bluff, maybe Ax suited

I think he would have bet all his made hands on the turn so this really looks like air or Ax but you have a better kicker for sure

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

Well I am splitting with all aces now so does that make calling more or less correct?

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

weird hand, the only one that makes sense is 77 or a hand like 34s (which a 22/15 probably wouldn't play, but im not sure of your sample size), A3s, or a stone cold bluff. i'm folding unless i've seen this guy play back at tag's frequently.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

Here is my thinking, why would someone who seems semi decent from their stats at least, check behind trips on the turn? He doesnt have to worry about the diamonds at all? Im not sure 77 peels this flop, but it might so I guess we can throw a few combos of that in there. At the time it really looked like missed diamonds or a weaker ace but maybe that thinking is wrong?

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

Shameless bump for others input.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

[ QUOTE ]
Normally river aggression is a real hand so this would be an easy fold, but I had no idea what to put villain on tbh. The fact that I checked the turn makes me look FOS I think, which makes this river a standard call, but Im unsure. Villain runs at 22/15/2.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $43.60
Hero (BB): $77.30
UTG: $47.30
MP: $15.50
CO: $52.20
BTN: $57.10

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, CO calls $2

Flop: ($5.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, CO calls $3.50

Turn: ($12.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($12.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $9</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $22</font>, Hero....

[/ QUOTE ]

chop and villain is retarded. Insta call

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my thinking, why would someone who seems semi decent from their stats at least, check behind trips on the turn? He doesnt have to worry about the diamonds at all? Im not sure 77 peels this flop, but it might so I guess we can throw a few combos of that in there. At the time it really looked like missed diamonds or a weaker ace but maybe that thinking is wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

the more i think about it, the more i sway towards a call, but in response to your post -

77 can absolutely float this flop in position against a TAG on a flop that most TAG's would cbet. as far as betting made hands on the turn, the board isn't particularly threatening - yeah there are diamonds out there, but the flop played HU - he doesn't have to worry, you don't usually have AdXd that often. i'm not saying that trips/fh is the only part of his range...what i am saying is that you can't discount them based on the fact that there is at least one draw out there and that most TAGfish would bet the turn because of that.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

This confuses me then. If youre saying that boats and trips are definitely a decent chunk of his range, then this is a fold.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

well honestly after thinking about it, it looks like a weak ace more than anything. but i was just saying that you can't discount those hands just because there's a diamond draw on the flop. fwiw i don't think random 3's are going to show up that much...77 is possible, A3 is possible, and other aces are possible too, which probably makes this a call (getting ~43-13, pretty sick odds).

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

and one more thing, i'd want to see his river AF before really being able to make a judgement on his range. if it's high, obviously you have to throw some random pairs in there that are trying to win the hand on a bluff.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

I dont think trips are in his range much at all for reasons besides the flush draw though. Is a 22/15 really going to limp any hand that contains a 3 with the possible exception of A3. Even A3 is a probable raise though if he is going to play it. Assuming by some chance he has trips though, most tags will raise this turn for other reasons than just protection I think. I will admit that 77 probably is fully possible when I think about it though. I figured all the times we see an ace though or a busted draw this should be a call.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

yah, i agree about a 3. i've been hit with the weak/tight bug lately, so take what i say with a grain of salt.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

I dunno this is such a weird spot.

I probably call because it's such a small raise, and a lot of idiot villains at these stakes think "Hey! I have 2 pair! I need to raise!", even though the board is paired.

FWIW, I've seen some TERRIBLE 25/15 players - do not rely just on stats. I've seen some of the worst post flop players ever run tag'ish numbers preflop.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

Added to note: You line looks a lot like a whiffed FD that took a shot at the river.

Of course, river raises down here pretty much terrify me.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

This really looks to me like a flush draw that backed into top pair. If he's a smart player the raise is made thinking he may get you to fold out chop hands and if called at worst he's chopping. If he's a donk he thinks he's raising for value.

Sometimes you may run into 77 here but I think its just as likely he has missed lower diamonds. I call here every time and expect to be chopping 80-90% of the time.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

he easily could have had a7d, missed his flush on the turn and raised on the river with the higher two pair.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

hmm....did villain have a boat by any chance?

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

Why bet the river anyway, you dont get much value. Let him bet
middle pair or busted flush trying to represent the 2 big cards on the board.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

And the river raise with an A here is a play usually made by poor player, so this is a fold if he has a clue.

Re: TPGK facing river aggression
 

Really odd.

Whatever the hell is going on, I simply cannot believe this is a worse hand than AJ the ~23% of the time we need here. I'd say we're good here less than 10% of the time (namely, the times he's bluffing). And if he's bluffing, he should move up.

I'd make villain's river raising range here: {air/busted draw, A3, A7, 3x, 33, 77}. Really, I can't put anything else in there: {AK, A2, A4-A6, A8-AT, AA, KK, small pp's} - none of these make sense. It must be a weird bluff or 2p+.

I recently heard a CR tutor (can't remember who) suggesting a call (for information!) in these spots could be worth it if villain is a reg.


Edit: I go $2.75 pre, and am not 100% sure about the river lead. I want to think about c/c v. b/f v. b/c in this spot as I'm sure this is something I don't think about enough in general.