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-   -   A5s in blind battle. (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=523052)

celticslegend 10-15-2007 04:46 PM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
[ QUOTE ]
c/c river vrs a bad player bet vrs a thinking one

[/ QUOTE ]
wtf?

0evg0 10-15-2007 06:38 PM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
So how do all of you who wanted HSMTT open to everyone feel now that baltostar has exploited you?

WarDekar 10-15-2007 06:43 PM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
[ QUOTE ]
So how do all of you who wanted HSMTT open to everyone feel now that baltostar has exploited you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Amazingly, I think this might be the most on-point he's ever been.

But I actually play it the same as Gobbo a lot, sometimes I'll check/call river depending on who villain is.

ASPoker8 10-15-2007 08:34 PM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
[ QUOTE ]
c/c river vrs a bad player bet vrs a thinking one

[/ QUOTE ]

shouldnt this be the opposite?

Ship Ship McGipp 10-15-2007 08:49 PM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd either bet or crai

[/ QUOTE ]

you are the worst at river check raises

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm actually very good, i just do it too much

Ship Ship McGipp 10-15-2007 08:49 PM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
[ QUOTE ]
c/c river vrs a bad player bet vrs a thinking one

[/ QUOTE ]

you are the worst, and you continue to deny it

baltostar 10-17-2007 08:26 AM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
[ QUOTE ]
baltosar you have the most backward, unintuitive way of thinking of EV as I have ever seen. You should never consider the EV of a hand by the max you "should" be making with it, it is all about making the most you can possibly make given the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong and wrong.

You're totally misunderstanding how I look at EV. This is explained in other posts of mine.

I am not advocating artificially constraining one's play in a rigid manner because the stakes escalate outside an avg takedown for a given scenario.

I am advocating using reasonable expectations for various scenarios as a sort of alarm system to warn oneself that you are drifting into murkier and murkier risk-invested waters.

In my experience (which admittedly does not include high-level live play), what prevents very many good players from becoming great players is that they are not very good at perceiving relative risk.

They are good at obtaining an edge in a hand (reading an opponent, tactical play, bet sizing, etc), but they are not good at perceiving that their incurred risk is excessive relative to the avg opp they can expect in their current M-bracket (and other relative opp metrics).

They over-focus on EV+ to the detriment of stack variance control.

Your statement :

"it is all about making the most you can possibly make given the situation"

is an excellent representation of the flawed thinking that I am referring to.

If what you said was correct for tournament play, then why wouldn't one always attempt escalate the stakes to playing for stacks for even the tiniest perceived EV+ ?

When a hand's risk (as measured by stack/pot ratio, or as measured by cost to continue the most EV+ line, or other metrics) moves significantly outside of reasonable expectations for the pre-flop or flop scenario, one should ask themselves the very serious question:

"Do I have exceptional confidence that this is an opportunity significantly better than the avg opp I expect to receive in my current M-bracket ?"

baltostar 10-17-2007 08:43 AM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think Baltostar's ideas regarding expected EV given a particular hand are actually conceptually similar to those expressed in Professional NLH Volume 1, which focuses on SPR (stack-to-pot ratio) and optimal SPR's for given hands. So perhaps we'll be seeing a book by Baltostar published by 2p2 in the near future.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't even know about this. But I have that book sitting in my pile of to-be-read so I'll take a look soon.

I'm actually kind of surprised I receive so much resistance here to my ideas. If you talk with good professional traders it's all about protecting oneself from over-scaling a trade. In trading, all manner of mechanisms (including absolute rules regarding % of bankroll risk on a given situation) are deployed to prevent oneself from defeating oneself by assuming excessive variance relative to a perceived opp.

Clearly, poker is not trading because in poker you can target single thinking opponents, but nonetheless some extremely valuable concepts are generally transferrable.

Soulman 10-17-2007 08:53 AM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
I'm not going to bother to read through your ramblings baltostar, but I think it's funny that you think you can speak with such weight on issues in which you have no experience whatsoever.

Pudge714 10-17-2007 11:27 AM

Re: A5s in blind battle.
 
Can we ban baltostar, not because he is a terrible poster (he is), but because everythread ends up getting hijacked by him.


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