Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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your M = 36984/2400 = ~15.5

his M (after he bets) = (45139-2600)/2400 = ~17.75

pot = 5000 = ~2 Ms

3-bet = 3-4 Ms

if he 4-bet min-raises and you call that's 6-8 Ms, leaving you 9.5-11.5 Ms

stop-and-go is better : call and bet flop no matter what

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What is his 4betting range? And would he min raise?

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I don't know either of these players. Not sure what villain's 4-bet range is or whether he'd more than min raise (I just put min-raise b/c it's best case for hero and it's still lame).

If villain is lag his steal raise is wide enough that pps are maybe 25% of it, so he has nothing on flop 50% of the time, and maybe 60% of that he's only on 2nd pair or worse. Stop-n-go with 1/2-2/3 pot bet on flop no matter what tends towards max reward/risk.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

Straight out reraising allin is significantly cEV+. There is 4900 in the pot, and you pick it up most of the time. There also isn't much difference between 3-bet/calling and reraising allin.

Flat calling is also cEV+, but it depends on how well you play this hand OOP. Since villain is a strong player, I like 3-bet/calling a little better than flat calling.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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Straight out reraising allin is significantly cEV+. There is 4900 in the pot, and you pick it up most of the time. There also isn't much difference between 3-bet/calling and reraising allin.


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this is probably true

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

I think 3betting > shove as he will 4bet light sometimes esp with your image.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

DJK watch out incase he min 4 bets you

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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Straight out reraising allin is significantly cEV+. There is 4900 in the pot, and you pick it up most of the time. There also isn't much difference between 3-bet/calling and reraising allin.

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I think there's enough difference between 3-bet/calling and re-raising allin to make the latter clearly better.

But is it $EV to risk 17.5M to gain 2.1M = 12% ?

Someone said villain is extremely good player. Is villain really calling allin with worse than AQ ? If not, then doesn't AJo allin logic imply a very wide range for allin in this spot ? Would you do it with AT ? KQ ? KJ ? QJ ?

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

you guys are crazy. 3-betting w/ the intention of calling a 4-bet this deep has to be bad. or maybe i am

calling is fine. c/f flop

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

I ran the numbers, your equity when called is about 25% and he's calling about 1/5 times. That makes it really damn close for shoving preflop but I see no reason to do it when calling is clearly +EV.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

I like calling and check folding this flop.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

Would you guys say it is a good spot to re-raise as a steal in DJK's position?