NL25 good fold... or getting outplayed?
 

Ok, I need some advice, thank you very much!

<u>Question:</u> River fold good - or getting outplayed here?

<u>Reads:</u>I have a note saying the villain is playing 9 tables at a time. He is TAGish on average, but definitly positinaly aware. Very frequent aggro raises from button, limps Q9s from button in multiway pot (doesn´t do that in EP). Now, he´s not in position here but from a player like that, I expect some c-bets to be challenged just because they are c-bets. I c-bet a lot, he might now that. I run at 19/12/2,5, he´s probably having a HUD and I am very loose from the button so 19/12 really is an average that changes with position (UTG is like 10/9 or so).

Here goes:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($21.35)
Hero ($24.90)
SB ($27.75)
BB ($49.20)
UTG ($59.05)
MP1 ($24.50)
MP2 ($24.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, SB calls $0.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($1.95) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $3.25</font>, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($8.45) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

River: ($16.45) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $8</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $16.45

Re: NL25 good fold... or getting outplayed?
 

When you call the turn bet, why don't you call the river bet? When you called the turn you must have thought you were still ahead, right? How can river change that if he does not have either 88 or some crazy 87, T8?
If you really think he might play back at you putting you on a pure CB, a 3bet on the flop might have been a good move. If not I think you have to either fold on the turn or call river as well.

Re: NL25 good fold... or getting outplayed?
 

If i call this turn, i call the river too. I think this KQ/KJ or KT most of the time.

Re: NL25 good fold... or getting outplayed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
When you called the turn you must have thought you were still ahead, right? How can river change that if he does not have either 88 or some crazy 87, T8?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the river did change my mind. Not the river card but the river bet, because I think he´s a lot less likely to 3-barrel than to second-barrel, the latter maybe even beeing something usual for him, or close to it.

Is that a bad way to think about it?

Re: NL25 good fold... or getting outplayed?
 

This does not have to be like a third barrel as a steal, as you did not show any strenght after you got raised on the flop he might even bet KJ, K9 or something like AT for value here. Plus you could easily be on a draw here as this board is very drawy (FD, QJ, 98 for OESDs) so that he could even keep betting with a PP as low as 88,99 (though this is rather unlikely I admit).
The important thing is: you get 2:1 odds here, so if you think your good here more often than that you should call and I think I would.