Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

Shortline's posts seem very different for him.. not at all manipulative (at least in the way he usually is), so I'm inclined strongly to see him as village. Durron also seems village based on how he acted in The Two Towers.

My best read for now is Chim, but that's pretty weak. I think there are like ten people who haven't even posted yet, which kinda sucks in a game with a 3pm vote deadline. Still inclined toward the "move forward" option as far as that goes.

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

Villagers: boiler, traz

Wolf: chim

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

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chim turning around and somehow being sure i'm a wolf is even more reassuring that I'm right

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Can you remember a time you were right on me? Or better yet a time you ever felt I was a villager? I am always wolf or on the "meh" list for you.

Your response to being an easy target is ludicrous, imo.

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Really? Look what happened when I stated my opinions lol. Like 8 ppl said LOLLER WOLF, simply because their minds can't grasp something outside of what they see.

Also, you're doing the same thing nich does, and it doesn't work on me. I've called you a wolf and been correct FAR MORE than I have been wrong.

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

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Shorty I fail to see how type 1 or 2 errors and their severity in economics applies to werewolf. Why is it so bad to call a wolf a villager?

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First: type 1 and type 2 errors are not (AT ALL) specific to econometrics. Think of it this way: A type one error is the worst type of error from your perspective (false positive or flase negative) and a type two is the other one. So a type one error for a tabaco company would be saying cigarettes lead to a higher incident of lung cancer when they in fact don't, and a type two error for a tabaco company would be saying they don't when they do. (This is exactly the opposite way a consumer or insurance company would define the errors, and it is possible for the same data to support both conclusions depending on how you establish your errors, because you can only bound one type of error tightly in an experiment, but I digress.)

What shorty is saying is clearing a wolf is far worse because lynching a villager does not lose the game for you but not lynching a wolf does.

Sorry for the brief lesson, wiki or google experiment plan or type I error for a complete discourse on the subject.

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there is zero chance fnord is a wolf this game.

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

And there have also been many times where I've defended you as a villager and been correct

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

also, thanks fnord

i'm just burned out from last night and i wanted to articulate how i was feeling today

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

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okay, we're going chim today

[/ QUOTE ][Lynching chim] works, but what do you think of Luckay, Shortline? He HAS gotten quiet, which tells me that one way or another, the lynch threat that dmk and I made may be keeping him in line for now. That or he's just gotten all his silly strategy out of his system this morning. So I don't know what to think of him now.

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

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Shortline, I would consider the null hypothesis for werewolf to be X is a villager.

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then why do we vote for wolves instead of villagers?

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That's a good point, but isn't most people's approach to werewolf looking for things that make suspects wolfy? Trying to disprove the null.

I usually vote for people because I have evidence that they are abnormal, not because I think everyone else is normal.

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
chim turning around and somehow being sure i'm a wolf is even more reassuring that I'm right

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you remember a time you were right on me? Or better yet a time you ever felt I was a villager? I am always wolf or on the "meh" list for you.

Your response to being an easy target is ludicrous, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

and this one is wolfy

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
chim turning around and somehow being sure i'm a wolf is even more reassuring that I'm right

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you remember a time you were right on me? Or better yet a time you ever felt I was a villager? I am always wolf or on the "meh" list for you.

Your response to being an easy target is ludicrous, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Look what happened when I stated my opinions lol. Like 8 ppl said LOLLER WOLF, simply because their minds can't grasp something outside of what they see.

Also, you're doing the same thing nich does, and it doesn't work on me. I've called you a wolf and been correct FAR MORE than I have been wrong.

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You are simply wrong here. But most of the info is from turbos as I haven't played many long games.

You don't read me well, Traz.