KJs in the BB
 

Online 3-6 game, folded to TAG MP who open raises. The LAGgy SB calls, and the I call with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Flop J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, I raise, MP threebets, and we all call.

Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, what is my plan for the rest of the hand, and why?

Re: KJs in the BB
 

I'm leading that turn. Having this checked behind by QQ would be a disaster with all the draws out there. I know he's a TAG and as such he's likely to bet but I still dont' want to risk it. The pot is huge and a bet clearly gives me the best chance to win it.

If villain raises I'm go into calldown mode no matter what SB does. If SB c/3balls I can fold the river UI, methinks. If villain and SB both just call I'm leading anything but a Q, A or heart river. If SB folds and river is a heart, Clarkmeister Theorem FTW.

Tag's hand could possibly be really interesting. His range is pretty narrow. JJ+, AThh+, AJ I guess, so you've got him crushed. If I'm doing my math right, and I like to think I am with my paper and pen, I get this:

4 combos where hero is behind; in all of them he has two outs or less
6 combos where villain has 8 outs or better
22 combos where villain has 3 outs or less

When I have that kind of edge I don't want to get fancy. For the majority of villains range that K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a pretty bad card. Make sure you give yourself a chance to get two bets in with a huge edge.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

I'd bet out and call down if I got raised. I'd do this because I feel my hand is strong enough to call a raise profitably, and because giving him a free card on the turn would be a catastrophe. If he just called the turn I'd fire just about any river.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

My first thought was that that there shouldn't be very many hands that MP is going to check on the turn...

Re: KJs in the BB
 

bob. been too long. where have you been? since your knee surgery you've close to disappeared. hope things are well.

good to see you post a hand. seems interesting.

well, it seems to me we just turned a strong hand. we have MP guy's range pretty well defined as top pair or an overpair/big pair. except for JJ and KK we're pretty well ahead of his range. of course we still have the lag to worry about, but his range is wide so we're likely ahead. i guess i'm going to war here. 99, TT, QQ are all a high risk of checking behind here. AK/AJ/AA might even get scared and check as well, esp. if the hold they a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and can't fold to a raise.

if i wasn't worried about the turn checking through too often(in relation to the pot size on this board) i would try to c/r both of them. as is, i'm leading the turn hoping he raises with his AA/AK so i can 3bet.

we're ahead of both of their ranges(even the raising and coldcalling portion). a 3bet and we start having something ot worry about. charge those worse hands(esp. the ones with a heart) to play. fire into that turn.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
been too long. where have you been? since your knee surgery you've close to disappeared. hope things are well.



[/ QUOTE ]

Things are fine. I've been grinding, and I just haven't had a lot of interesting hands. Or the interesting ones, have been more of the WTF!? variety.

The thing about this hand, is that we have a pretty strong hand, and you need to find a way to balance, getting value for it, and at the same, time, you don't want to be giving any free cards, because there are a lot of scary cards out there.

I don't know the exact right way to say this, but at this point, you probably have the maximum value your hand is ever going to have. There are so many scary cards on the river that you aren't going to improve you, but that might improve someone else. Any heart, A, Q, T, and 9, all potentially make someone else a better hand, so I think that you need to get the most money in on the turn that you can.

I chose to bet out, and most posters that have responded so far, seem to think that that was the best play. As it turned out, both opponents folded, and although that was a little dissapointing, if one of them folded a baby heart, I probably was a lot better off not seeing the river.

Re: KJs in the BB *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky

Re: KJs in the BB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tag's hand could possibly be really interesting. His range is pretty narrow. JJ+, AThh+, AJ I guess, so you've got him crushed. If I'm doing my math right, and I like to think I am with my paper and pen, I get this:

4 combos where hero is behind; in all of them he has two outs or less
6 combos where villain has 8 outs or better
22 combos where villain has 3 outs or less

[/ QUOTE ]

You're still doing this stuff with pencil and paper? Come on man, get in the game. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I admire your determination though...

fwiw, saying you are ahead of 22 combos isn't giving the whole picture. How many combos are in his range? Is 22 a big % or a small one?

Anyways, those crushed hands represent about half his range, and he's probably not betting any of them with two opponents and one guy calling 2 cold now that hearts have come in. I like a bet as well.

-eric

Re: KJs in the BB
 

How am I supposed to do it? I do have a calculator. Your range thinger costs money. If there's a better way I'd like to know about it. Perhaps is I were properly massaged I could be talked into paying for it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I suppose I could give the actual raw numbers but I was treating it as self explanatory.

I'm putting villain on a range of 32 combos. This is a little esoteric, imo, and the flop threebarrel, I feel, really defines his hand. Villain has three or fewer outs 68.75% of the time in my range. 18.75% of the time villain has 8 outs or better. So villain is only ahead here the 12.5% of the time.

So our edge is big. Ideally, I would want to c/r, but the third heart makes it more likely that villain will check through. I like to lead for many reasons:

-A lot of his range must call a bet and take a look at the river and would likely check behind against two opponents.

-Even if a dangerous river card comes out and our hand is still good it's going to kill our action so we have to get money in the pot NOW.

-I might be wrong about this, but if we bet and villain calls the SB is more likely to peel light because he's closing the action for one bet. very +EV, imo.

Re: KJs in the BB
 

There's like nothing a TAG can cold 3bet the flop that checks behind on this turn. Ever.

I CR( this includes C/3B) if the Tag has AXhh, well life sucks.