Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

[ QUOTE ]
no need to assume his three betting range is narrow and he isn't a nit either, I think its -EV to give him credit for set here everytime.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do yourself a favor and just assume everyone has a narrow 3b range post flop unless theyre a maniac or show you they highly overvalue hands. Just understand that if he was to c/r us I would shove over him as his range is still wide enough. But a b/3b is a significantly stronger line ime.

Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

If we take like 77,88,99 out of the stove, our equity falls to the point where a fold is correct.

Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.942% 51.73% 01.21% 33801 791.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.058% 45.85% 01.21% 29957 791.00 { 99-33, 64s+, 54s, 64o+, 54o }

Close, but looks like a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]This isn't close at all if you think this is an accurate range. It's a clear push, we only need 40% equity to break even.

Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.414% 58.96% 01.45% 17511 432.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 39.586% 38.13% 01.45% 11325 432.00 { QcQh, QcQs, QdQs, JJ-TT, 66-33 }


This is the most narrow range you can probably put him on and then its really close.

Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.942% 51.73% 01.21% 33801 791.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.058% 45.85% 01.21% 29957 791.00 { 99-33, 64s+, 54s, 64o+, 54o }

Close, but looks like a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]This isn't close at all if you think this is an accurate range. It's a clear push, we only need 40% equity to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean close as in calling, I misspoke and meant close as to who was ahead.

Looking back, I don't really see what he's raising you with here that we're good against, I think I'd fold after consideration

Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

SO basically if he has an overpair here 40% of the time a shove is breakeven?

Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.942% 51.73% 01.21% 33801 791.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.058% 45.85% 01.21% 29957 791.00 { 99-33, 64s+, 54s, 64o+, 54o }

Close, but looks like a shove.

This isn't close at all if you think this is an accurate range. It's a clear push, we only need 40% equity to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem is I really dont think that range is accurate at all. I cant even think of one player in the past 20k hands to play 99 like this, let alone someone with tag stats. Assuming he does this with 44, which is alot more likely than 88 imo, its still a fold.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,830 games 0.001 secs 16,830,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 6c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.327% 29.00% 01.33% 4881 223.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 69.673% 68.35% 01.33% 11503 223.00 { 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5c5d, 5c5h, 5d5h, 5d5s, 44, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, 6d5d, 6h5h }


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Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

Mh if he only does this with one overpair it would be breakeven.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.303% 40.69% 01.62% 6042 240.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 57.697% 56.08% 01.62% 8328 240.00 { JJ, 66-55, 33 }

Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

You dont think JJ should be heavily discounted as it probably will 3b pf? Also in that range, youre then including 44, I really think its one or the other, either one overpair or 44 and what Im saying is 44 is much more likely than an overpair.

Re: Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b
 

Ya ofc, but then just replace JJ with TT, as long as he does with one kind of overpair itd be breakeven shove.

Also JJ might not necessarily 3bet here as I raised UTG.