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-   -   Shorting 100NL Hand 1: bottom pair + flush draw (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=531148)

marchron 10-25-2007 02:22 PM

Shorting 100NL Hand 1: bottom pair + flush draw
 
In order to get a chunk of UB's bad-beat jackpot, I basically sat and took up space at 100NL. UB's BBJ pays a share to everyone who's playing the same stakes as the table it hits at, so I minstacked, then just looked for places to get my money in.

UTG+1 limps $1, folded to SB who completes for 50¢, I check my option with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Flop is 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB checks, I bet $2 . . .

A lot of my profit came from stealing small pots like this one, netting me valuable time-killing blind money with minimal risk. Should I be betting here?

. . . UTG+1 raises to $6.50, SB folds, I push for $27.35.

Am I too short to make this play, or is there enough value in it?

Alobar 10-25-2007 02:49 PM

Re: Shorting 100NL Hand 1: bottom pair + flush draw
 
[ QUOTE ]


Am I too short to make this play, or is there enough value in it?

[/ QUOTE ]

The shorter you are the better it is I would think. You wont have as much fold equity but he'll call you with a wider range of hands, all of which you're likely coin flipping with.. And given the money thats already in the pot you are going to come out ahead.

Niediam 10-26-2007 02:26 AM

Re: Shorting 100NL Hand 1: bottom pair + flush draw
 
Is there any chance at all that you can have a high enough winrate shortstacking to beat the BBJ?

Anyhow, I'd play it the same.

TehPokarKing 10-28-2007 07:47 PM

Re: Shorting 100NL Hand 1: bottom pair + flush draw
 
Yeah, dude I think you're good w/ this play. You're not too short. Given the reraise you're obviously not likely to be ahead now. I'm not sure what UTG+1's reraising range is here but I think with your 27ish bets behind you're good to shove here. Two pair, trips, and flush outs are good and the flop is where you want to be getting the money in.

Also implied BBJ odds must never be underestimated.

marchron 10-28-2007 09:26 PM

Re: Shorting 100NL Hand 1: bottom pair + flush draw
 
[ QUOTE ]
Also implied BBJ odds must never be underestimated.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not sure what you're saying here, as it's impossible for me to make a BBJ-qualifying hand at this point.

Unless you think that because of the BBJ, Villain is liable to have 65[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or something.


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