*** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

GB @ DAL on Thursday night

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

count me in as a stubborn non-believer of Farve and the pack.

Dal -6.5, 2u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Not sure I'll touch either. I like the Pack, but I won't take +6.5 most likely.

At first glance, the under looks good, although both offenses match up well with both defenses, so I may not make any bet on this game.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Hmm, Bodog has Pack +7 (-115)

I may have lied. I might get a bet down on them before noon.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

love +7 here, I thought it would be more like +5

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Yeah, there's really no reason for Dallas to be a TD favorite here.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

newb question:

what is better:

+6.5 +100

or

+7 -115

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

I use pinnacles drop down menus for those. They have it a 12 cent diff, so 6.5 +100 is slightly better

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

KBZ,

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

Thanks to Thremp for sending me here.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
newb question:

what is better:

+6.5 +100

or

+7 -115

[/ QUOTE ]

in this situation take the 6.5...if the line was 13.5 id still be taking dallas

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Hmm...

The line opened at GB +6

Most of the money (according to wagerline.com) went on GB. Since then, it's moved to +7.0 (-115) and now to +7.0 (-110)at a couple places, and even as high as +8 at 5dimes.

If you're getting a lot of money on the +6.5, what possible advantage do you have by moving the line to +7.0, unless the books reallllly want money on GB?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Had this happen to Arizona-Detroit - sometimes the books are so sure that the public are betting on the square side they don't even care that they aren't shading their risk.

Not saying that I know that that's happening here, just a possible explanation.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

That was obviously my first thought. But at least in the case of the Arizona/Detroit game, I knew WHY the public thought Detroit was the right side, and I knew WHY the books didn't give a damn.

I just don't see why the books thinks Dallas is that much better than GB, so perhaps they know something I don't?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Anyone ever seen an analysis of betting against the public (>X% threshold) on lines that moved further in the public side's favor?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

on espn.com they have a basic poll asking who will win this game. I was shocked to see that they had 55% of the country thinking GB would win outright.

Dallas -6.5 baby

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

GB +7 (-115)
Risk 1u to win .87u

I'm probably missing something huge, but these two teams are more evenly matched then the book is giving them credit for. I hate the fact that money is on GB and the line moved to 7, and I'll probably end up regretting it, but the numbers say Dallas should be 4-5 point favorites here.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm probably missing something huge, but these two teams are more evenly matched then the book is giving them credit for. I hate the fact that money is on GB and the line moved to 7, and I'll probably end up regretting it, but the numbers say Dallas should be 4-5 point favorites here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that the line is actually pretty accurate, although I would put it more at Green Bay +5 or +6 (which I think it opened at?). I think Dallas is about a field goal better on a neutral field. I think Green Bay is quite good, but overrated, they have luckboxed their way into several wins, has an easier schedule, and lost to an awful Bears team. Favre and the offense are obviously putting up ridiculous numbers, but then again so is Romo and Dallas. Dallas meanwhile has convincingly defeated everyone except the Pats, who they put up a pretty good showing against, and the Redskins in a rivalry game which is always close, against a tougher schedule. Green Bay also is heavily injured, nd will likely be missing several starters, including possibly Woodson. Without Woodson, I see little chance of them being able to cover TO. On top of that, Green Bay is awful at covering TEs, and Witten should have a monster game. Likely staying away from this, and also pretty confused why apparently the public is on Green Bay (according to espn.com poll obv) when Dallas would seem like the BSP favorite here.

Also, I kind of feel that even though the o/u is very high (51+ on most sites), I feel that this game will be ridiculously high scoring, with 2 high powered offenses, and Green Bays only chance of winning scoring a fuckton of points. Might wind up teasing GB and the over (yeah yeah -EV but I need a reason to attempt to watch the game on [censored] NFL netword).

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

however, the packers have improved throughout the season, whereas the cowboys are the same or slightly worse than they were: romo remains inconsistent, the defense is solid but not outstanding.

the wild card? favre has a history of succumbing to pressure, and dallas can apply it.

-c

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm probably missing something huge, but these two teams are more evenly matched then the book is giving them credit for. I hate the fact that money is on GB and the line moved to 7, and I'll probably end up regretting it, but the numbers say Dallas should be 4-5 point favorites here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Dallas meanwhile has convincingly defeated everyone except the Pats, who they put up a pretty good showing against, and the Redskins in a rivalry game which is always close,

[/ QUOTE ]

don't forget the luckboxed win in buffalo

[ QUOTE ]
against a tougher schedule.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm...beat:

MIA and STL, a combined 2-18
a pretty bad CHI team
a bad MIN team
overrated NYG's twice
PHI-bad
WAS, decent win there
NYJ....

combined record of opponents that they beat 36-61

GB: 52-57

also, they share many common opponents, differences being:

GB winning @ DET, DEN and KC, and beating CAR (not impressive, just pointing out who they've played different) and SD at home.

DAL squeaked one out in BUF, and beat MIA, STL, and NYJ.

DAL got shown up pretty good at home against a great team, and GB had a bad loss at home in a big div rivalry.

Other than those games, they have played the same teams, and have the same records.You tell me the more impressive schedule.


**edited to save possible math embarrassment...studying right now and went through really quick doing the combined records in my head, so I may be off slightly. if someone double checks i may be off a game or two, but shouldn't be a lot.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

are the same people betting on farve to continue playing out of his mind also betting on jay feely?

as bsp as this sounds, farve is due for a downswing

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
are the same people betting on farve to continue playing out of his mind also betting on jay feely?

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean AJ Feeley? And yes, I bet on AJ Feeley last week, so....huh?

[ QUOTE ]
as bsp as this sounds, farve is due for a downswing

[/ QUOTE ]

Favre is due to perform at the level he's expected to perform. This "due for a downswing" talk is just dumb.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Pinnacle have it into GB +7 (-101)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pinnacle have it into GB +7 (-101)

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, not only am I on the wrong side of the books, but I got a bad line (+7 -115) to boot.

I'm such a square.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

kyro you dont even know who i am but i've been reading these threads for quite a while and you always seem to go back on your bets! or regret you placed them!, Never regret =] btw is it wrong to ask how much 1 unit is to you guys? im just curious to know how much you guys bet on games... I'm only 18 years old and started online betting recently, I've hit 5 2 team parlays already but that was just by flipping a coin... i want to really try and get an edge in this.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Ha, I've only really regretted a couple, and only once did I regret a bet before the game was played out. (I lost it obv). A unit for me is $5000. Just kidding, it's $5. Gotta start somewhere though, right? Anyways, I took Ten +2 two weeks ago against Denver which was just a silly bet. I should have teased it, or if I couldn't tease it because I didn't know how (long story, don't ask), I shouldn't have played it. The only reason I'm "regretting" this bet is because everything that has happened so far points to the books liking the Cowboys here. If the books like the Cowboys, and I'm on the Packers, I'm probably in trouble.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

oooo i see, I dont know if its wrong but i dont go by the rule that u only bet 1-2% of your bankroll... i dont have a big bank roll at all (500$) thats how much i have on bodog but i just cant seem to bet a small amount on each game... i dont really have the patience haha... maybe thats bad but whatever, I bet like 50 a game and do a lot of 2 team parlay bets and it seems to be going good, SO by betting 50 dollars a game i have a higher risk of going broke?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

1u for me is $100, BR about 4K-5K. I basically just do it for fun and experience. If I keep winning and learning, I might get more serious about it.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Well the first two weeks I bet, I made 20-25 units worth of bets, so having a 10 unit bankroll would be pointless for me. I'm pretty sure most people would suggest having 100 units or so if you're serious about it, but that's just a guess.

I currently have about a 60 unit roll.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

yeah kinda went crazy i started several days ago with 50 bucks and now suddenly i have 500 in my account... I started by putting 50 dollars on Ecuador -1(+120) which is a soccer international 2010 world cup qualifying game...that got me to over 100 dollars then i put everything i had on the eagles +25 on bodog, so i was up to 210 or something then ive done 50 dollars 2 team parlays won most and now i have 500... i know this was all luck but i think as easy as it was to get it, it would be just as easy to lose it =/... I just hope i dont go crazy and bet everything i have on the Cowboys hahaha, One question about bodog... i sent the fax of my information to them already so i can receive checks in the mail, how do i know they received them? or how long does that take?
thanks

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm probably missing something huge, but these two teams are more evenly matched then the book is giving them credit for. I hate the fact that money is on GB and the line moved to 7, and I'll probably end up regretting it, but the numbers say Dallas should be 4-5 point favorites here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that the line is actually pretty accurate, although I would put it more at Green Bay +5 or +6 (which I think it opened at?). I think Dallas is about a field goal better on a neutral field. I think Green Bay is quite good, but overrated, they have luckboxed their way into several wins, has an easier schedule, and lost to an awful Bears team. Favre and the offense are obviously putting up ridiculous numbers, but then again so is Romo and Dallas. Dallas meanwhile has convincingly defeated everyone except the Pats, who they put up a pretty good showing against, and the Redskins in a rivalry game which is always close, against a tougher schedule. Green Bay also is heavily injured, nd will likely be missing several starters, including possibly Woodson. Without Woodson, I see little chance of them being able to cover TO. On top of that, Green Bay is awful at covering TEs, and Witten should have a monster game. Likely staying away from this, and also pretty confused why apparently the public is on Green Bay (according to espn.com poll obv) when Dallas would seem like the BSP favorite here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't see the Eagles game in Week 1, but from everything I've seen/heard/read that was a lucky win.

Outside of that the luckbox theme w/ GB seems exaggerated to me. How were they any more lucky in Denver than they were unlucky vs. Chicago? They fumbled twice fairly deep in Bears territory & were on the wrong end of every questionable call.
Even if they could easily be 7-3, how many NFC teams go into NYG, Minnesota, Detroit on Thxgiving and dominate most of the game? Denver/KC isn't an easy back-to-back 6 day road trip either.
Plus the Cowboys homefield is very 'meh' - certainly not worth more than the usual 3 imo.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

The "luckbox" theme IS terribly exaggerated. GB may not be a 10-1 team, but very few teams that start out 10-1 teams are actually that good. Dallas isn't a 10-1 team either. Both these teams are the class of the NFC, though, and if the line movement wasn't totally perplexing, I'd be loving my GB +7 bet.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Buddy and I are on opposite sides of this line so we're doing 1u vig free and I'm taking +6.5. The line's hit 7 so I'm adding another unit, this one with vig.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Was going to take Dallas. But +7 is alot to overcome. Reluctantly, my money will be on GB. Small wager just for the action.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

on

dallas -7 -105 2u
to o105.5 receiving -115
brett favre u325.5 passing -115
tony romo o290.5 -115

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Am on Dallas & a smaller play on the over. GL

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

kyro you put a lot of time in for a $5 unit...that kind of discipline will ultimately propel your game.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

I've watched a lot of Dallas games this year and they seem to be second half team. I went through the box scores to see if this was right, and here is what I came up with. Not sure if this is variance or if they are doing something to score more in second half like USC.
opponent 1st 2nd half points
Jets 21 13
WAS 7 21
NYG 17 14
PHI 21 17
MIN 7 17
NE 17 10
BUF 10 15
STL 14 21
CHI 3 31
MIA 10 27
NYG 17 28
Total 1st half points: 144
2nd: 214

Green Bay
DET 17 20
CAR 21 10
MIN 13 21
KC 6 27
DEN 13 0 6ot
WAS 7 10
CHI 17 3
MIN 10 13
SD 17 14
NYG 7 28
PHI 10 6
Total 1st half points: 138
2nd: 152 + 6ot
I guess the conclusion would be if you like GB do a first half bet, if you like Dallas do a second half bet because Dallas scores more in the second half. Does this make sense? I have no baseline to compare this with either; I don't even know if teams usually score more in second or what. I can't pick which side I like so I am casting about trying to find an edge. Here's some notes I made on these teams when they played last week. Please comment so I can learn.
green bay/detroit notes
Saipaia has 50 pounds on Kampman and he just got rammed backward into Kitna like an idiot when he came in. Kampman and KGB made it real hard on Kitna, but KGB injured at 7 min 2nd qtr and didn't play 2nd half. Does Dallas have people that can control these guys?
I've heard a lot about how horrible green bays guards are, so I was on the lookout for bad play from them. at 1:00 2nd I saw Spitz let his guy (Langston) just barge right by in the A gap, and the tackle Tauscher blew his assignment too. Then Spitz did it again the next play. Overall though I didn't see anything to think they were about to get benched or anything. How does GB usually do against a good pass rush though?
announcers made a big deal about how Detroit's big guy #92 had not been able to do much on defense. I agree with this.
I continue to not be impressed with GB's running game, even though Grant got 100 yards and Detroit has #8 run defense.

Dallas/NYJ notes
Newman looked really fast when he cut in front of Cotchery for the interception
Romo underthrew the ball a bunch of times on long passes that could easily have been interceptions. He's really good at the short passes though
I saw Owens and the tight ends streak downfield a lot with several steps on the defenders and no one in front of them. I imagine they would not be able to have this much success against guys like Harris on GB though.
Dallas pass protection is good. pass rush good.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Go Pack Go!
me monies are on the pack. beer, brats, and cheese is good for you.

benny

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

is Milwaukee the only place that is getting this game on ABC? I thought I heard it's only on satellite even in the rest of Wisconsin (maybe not GReenbay though).

Benny

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
is Milwaukee the only place that is getting this game on ABC? I thought I heard it's only on satellite even in the rest of Wisconsin (maybe not GReenbay though).

Benny

[/ QUOTE ]

milw, green bay and dallas. thats it.