Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Hmm...

The line opened at GB +6

Most of the money (according to wagerline.com) went on GB. Since then, it's moved to +7.0 (-115) and now to +7.0 (-110)at a couple places, and even as high as +8 at 5dimes.

If you're getting a lot of money on the +6.5, what possible advantage do you have by moving the line to +7.0, unless the books reallllly want money on GB?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Had this happen to Arizona-Detroit - sometimes the books are so sure that the public are betting on the square side they don't even care that they aren't shading their risk.

Not saying that I know that that's happening here, just a possible explanation.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

That was obviously my first thought. But at least in the case of the Arizona/Detroit game, I knew WHY the public thought Detroit was the right side, and I knew WHY the books didn't give a damn.

I just don't see why the books thinks Dallas is that much better than GB, so perhaps they know something I don't?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

Anyone ever seen an analysis of betting against the public (>X% threshold) on lines that moved further in the public side's favor?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

on espn.com they have a basic poll asking who will win this game. I was shocked to see that they had 55% of the country thinking GB would win outright.

Dallas -6.5 baby

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

GB +7 (-115)
Risk 1u to win .87u

I'm probably missing something huge, but these two teams are more evenly matched then the book is giving them credit for. I hate the fact that money is on GB and the line moved to 7, and I'll probably end up regretting it, but the numbers say Dallas should be 4-5 point favorites here.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm probably missing something huge, but these two teams are more evenly matched then the book is giving them credit for. I hate the fact that money is on GB and the line moved to 7, and I'll probably end up regretting it, but the numbers say Dallas should be 4-5 point favorites here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that the line is actually pretty accurate, although I would put it more at Green Bay +5 or +6 (which I think it opened at?). I think Dallas is about a field goal better on a neutral field. I think Green Bay is quite good, but overrated, they have luckboxed their way into several wins, has an easier schedule, and lost to an awful Bears team. Favre and the offense are obviously putting up ridiculous numbers, but then again so is Romo and Dallas. Dallas meanwhile has convincingly defeated everyone except the Pats, who they put up a pretty good showing against, and the Redskins in a rivalry game which is always close, against a tougher schedule. Green Bay also is heavily injured, nd will likely be missing several starters, including possibly Woodson. Without Woodson, I see little chance of them being able to cover TO. On top of that, Green Bay is awful at covering TEs, and Witten should have a monster game. Likely staying away from this, and also pretty confused why apparently the public is on Green Bay (according to espn.com poll obv) when Dallas would seem like the BSP favorite here.

Also, I kind of feel that even though the o/u is very high (51+ on most sites), I feel that this game will be ridiculously high scoring, with 2 high powered offenses, and Green Bays only chance of winning scoring a fuckton of points. Might wind up teasing GB and the over (yeah yeah -EV but I need a reason to attempt to watch the game on [censored] NFL netword).

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

however, the packers have improved throughout the season, whereas the cowboys are the same or slightly worse than they were: romo remains inconsistent, the defense is solid but not outstanding.

the wild card? favre has a history of succumbing to pressure, and dallas can apply it.

-c

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm probably missing something huge, but these two teams are more evenly matched then the book is giving them credit for. I hate the fact that money is on GB and the line moved to 7, and I'll probably end up regretting it, but the numbers say Dallas should be 4-5 point favorites here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Dallas meanwhile has convincingly defeated everyone except the Pats, who they put up a pretty good showing against, and the Redskins in a rivalry game which is always close,

[/ QUOTE ]

don't forget the luckboxed win in buffalo

[ QUOTE ]
against a tougher schedule.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm...beat:

MIA and STL, a combined 2-18
a pretty bad CHI team
a bad MIN team
overrated NYG's twice
PHI-bad
WAS, decent win there
NYJ....

combined record of opponents that they beat 36-61

GB: 52-57

also, they share many common opponents, differences being:

GB winning @ DET, DEN and KC, and beating CAR (not impressive, just pointing out who they've played different) and SD at home.

DAL squeaked one out in BUF, and beat MIA, STL, and NYJ.

DAL got shown up pretty good at home against a great team, and GB had a bad loss at home in a big div rivalry.

Other than those games, they have played the same teams, and have the same records.You tell me the more impressive schedule.


**edited to save possible math embarrassment...studying right now and went through really quick doing the combined records in my head, so I may be off slightly. if someone double checks i may be off a game or two, but shouldn't be a lot.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/29/07 NFL Thursday GAME THREAD (GB @ DAL)***
 

are the same people betting on farve to continue playing out of his mind also betting on jay feely?

as bsp as this sounds, farve is due for a downswing