AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero...

BB is a bit mouse-like: 23.5/1.96/0.71. He seems to play decent cards but now he's in the BB.

I want to bet here as a semi-bluff (and with a remote chance that I'm ahead). If raised I would drop it. Assuming I will check or fold UI on the river, I'd be getting 4.25:1 odds on my turn bet so it seems like I only have to induce a fold about 1 time in 5 to make a profit. Does this make sense?

[I guess the trickier decision comes if the villain calls and I improve on the river, very possibly improving to the second-best hand!]

Re: AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

ez check

Re: AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

Thats just about the worst turn card...flushes came in, straight combos straightened or paired.

Re: AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

Guys with a 23.5 VPIP don't rack up a 0.7 AF by making expert turn folds. Check through, and I'd seriously consider folding to a bet on any river card (but probably call anyway if it's an offsuit T).

Re: AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

c/f this turn. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

Villain either just made his draw or paired up. He's got you beaten either way and he's not folding. Just take the free card.

Re: AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

This is by no means a semi-bluff.

Bluff yes - Semi Bluff - No.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

So, it seems like I was approaching this decision all wrong. With only one opponent I wasn't as worried about the draws coming in. I don't know that he paired up either as he's been totally passive to this point. HOWEVER that 23.5 suggests that he started with more than air.

What would you want to change to make this a bet/fold rather than a check?

Re: AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

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With only one opponent I wasn't as worried about the draws coming in.

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I don't get what your saying here? Are you saying you don't think he was drawing?

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I don't know that he paired up either as he's been totally passive to this point.

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Right - so he called with either a Pair he flopped, a pair he had, or he had some sort of draw (which two came in) - or he is on air still

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HOWEVER that 23.5 suggests that he started with more than air.

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Not that much more... and he is in the BB

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What would you want to change to make this a bet/fold rather than a check?

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How about you having some sort of hand.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Re: AQo semi-bluffing the turn?
 

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What would you want to change to make this a bet/fold rather than a check?

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How about you having some sort of hand.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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