Two Plus Two Newer Archives

Two Plus Two Newer Archives (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Micro Stakes (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=71)
-   -   Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=516393)

AZplaya 10-05-2007 04:23 PM

Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
So I exchanged hands with another 2p2er and here is one he questioned.

Here are my reads:
SB is a nitty straightforward player who has been running good.
BB is a flop junky who felts very light, standard fish.

Thoughts on calling pre when there is a good chance I'm playing for 1500BB's?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $403.90
BB: $50.20
UTG: $48.25
Hero (CO): $53.70
BTN: $50.60

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $5.50</font>, BB calls $5, Hero calls $3.75

Genz 10-05-2007 04:35 PM

Re: Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
1500 BBs?!? Effective stack size for you is 106 BBs. It's gonna be a big pot on the flop and you will face big bets, so you have no implied odds to draw and the direct odds aren't good enough to try hitting a 2pair, straight or flush.

Dunkman 10-05-2007 04:41 PM

Re: Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
I guess my problem here is that most of the time you're losing $4, and even when you hit you're usually going to be shoving a draw on the flop with 8-9 outs and not all that much FE that you have odds to shove but that isn't a favorite. I guess it depends on just how often BB is felting here, but at first glance it doesn't seem like it's going to be profitable.

You're No Daisy 10-05-2007 05:03 PM

Re: Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
I have no problem with your line. You know the SB is a nit so his range should be pretty tight. If you hit the flop hard, or get a combo-draw, you have a great chance to double up. Have you been raising the blinds a lot. Maybe SB was just getting fed up with you? What's his fold SB to steal percentage? If it's low, and he's as nitty as you claim, then chances are he's got JJ+, AK. That's a pretty tight range. If you whiff on the flop, you can easily fold.

AC

whyzze 10-05-2007 05:09 PM

Re: Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
I really dont think you are deep enough for this. Ya there is a chance you rake in a 300bb pot...but when you do win its more likely going to be 220bbs or so. I would prefer this if there was a chance you could win this pot without the flop hitting you in the face. But with BB in the pot you have to play fit or fold poker...and that usually means you are going to be ~40% after the flop.

I guess I am saying that I dont like it because you aren't going to be able to make a play at the pot, and when you do make a hand you will still be a dog the majority of the time and you still wont make enough money when you do hit. I haven't done the math but I can't see this being +EV due to the fit or fold line you need to take here.

Brian O'Nolan 10-05-2007 05:11 PM

Re: Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
The main problem with this hand is that you don't seem to understand the concept of effective stacks (converter issues?). Even with BB coming along this call is a little thin, but I don't think you could say this is a big leak or anything.

Jouster777 10-05-2007 06:04 PM

Re: Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
I'm going to disagree with everyone else and say I like the call. We have position and a muppet to give us odds.

We have about 3:1 pot odds and that is about the odds that we will flop 2pair or better (~6%), a combo draw (~7%), or a simple draw ~13%) according to goofyballer's classic post: SC post

Combo draws or better will be VERY profitable and we can probably hold our own with a simple draw on average. I'd say this is a pretty quick call given the conditions.

FWIW: I think AZ put in an extra "0" in the pot size expectation

jack492505 10-05-2007 06:12 PM

Re: Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
AS a couple people mentioned you're not playing for 150bb's because you aren't that deep. I don't think you're deep enough to call here unless there is a good chance you can stack BB as well if you hit.

Jouster777 10-05-2007 06:27 PM

Re: Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
[ QUOTE ]
AS a couple people mentioned you're not playing for 150bb's because you aren't that deep. I don't think you're deep enough to call here unless there is a good chance you can stack BB as well if you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]We are playing for a maximum of 200BBs. I interpreted 150BB as an estimated final number with villains dropping out some times (I actually think that's too high as an average estimate but whatever).

Obviously, and more importantly, I think we ARE deep enough for the other reasons I mentioned.

orange 10-05-2007 06:40 PM

Re: Calling a 3 bet in pozz - NL $50 6m
 
you are playing for 100bbs, as others have said. effective stacks are not 1500bbs....


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:49 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.