Speculating on Stud
 

During this tourney I read the classic article by Mason about playing small pairs against aces with a dead ace exposed. I decided to make a few speculating plays with small pairs versus dead cards. Here's 3rd street of one at the final table:

Tournament - - Level XII (750/1,500), Ante 150, Bring-In 225 (converter)

Seat 1: 16,998
Seat 2: 5,110
Seat 3: 20,330
Hero: 9,870
Seat 5: 15,295
Seat 6: 16,792
Seat 7: 7,786
Seat 8: 3,819

3rd Street - (1.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___raises
Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

Re: Speculating on Stud
 

I think I would have completed this on 3rd with those dead cards behind me.

Re: Speculating on Stud
 

I dont complete because the players to my left are not very good and are very aggressive if they have any pair. Additionally, they will not lay down Kq7 if they see a complete from a 9. How far can hero bet a small to medium pair versus very loose and aggressive villians.

Re: Speculating on Stud
 

They may be dead, but they are big, and there are lots of them. If you cannot steal the antes, I think a fold is in order. You're at a point where you really need to win the next hand you play to the end. I'd want something better than a pair of Fours for this purpose. Throwing almost a quarter of your stack after this dog on third just can't be right.

The next thing you need to read is the bit in SS2 where Todd points out that if two players have an Ace showing on third, it is actually more likely that a pair of Aces is out than if only one player were showing an Ace. Multiply that by two and add the bring-in.