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-   -   Nut flush river bet NL 100 (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=554672)

Tony Montana 22 11-26-2007 03:47 AM

Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
Comments on the entire hand are appreciated but mostly interested in my play on the river and MP c/r a super-loose passive 47/0/1/500.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($170.35)
SB ($135.05)
BB ($39)
Hero ($95)
MP ($125.30)
CO ($142.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, MP calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($11) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5.75</font>, MP calls $5.75, BB calls $5.75.

Turn: ($28.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($28.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $13</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $39</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $116.05 (All-In)</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $46.75 (All-In).

Final Pot: $212.75

Alobar 11-26-2007 03:56 AM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
I dont get the turn check

I fold the river, the guy is loose passive and 3 betting AI a paired board. Your hand is no goot.

Bramsterdam 11-26-2007 10:34 AM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
River call is $46 to win $212. MP might have Ax or a lower flush and you're getting great odds, call.

However, if you had bet the turn you would have gotten more value and protection vs Ax and you wouldn't have ended in this river spott.

Suigin406 11-26-2007 11:16 AM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
bet the turn, as played, u get good odds to call, but oh well

sh58 11-26-2007 11:18 AM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
bet the turn 100%.

obv call the river (as you did)

Aces0Kingz 11-26-2007 11:21 AM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
have to bet turn easy river call but u lost to a full house right?

robert jordan 11-26-2007 11:25 AM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
i think your hand is rarely good in this spot

spivey 11-26-2007 11:28 AM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
[ QUOTE ]
i think your hand is rarely good in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody's arguing with that. Luckily, it only has to be rarely good to make this a call.

monkover 11-26-2007 11:39 AM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
def bet the turn.

Alobar 11-26-2007 01:11 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think your hand is rarely good in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody's arguing with that. Luckily, it only has to be rarely good to make this a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

whats the point in having a read if you arent going to use it? It doesnt matter if hes getting 5:1 on his money if he isnt winning 1 time in 6, its a bad call.

blink20 11-26-2007 01:34 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
Preflop is really the only street I like in this hand, and even there I could express my dislike for the 3.5x raise people like to do, I like 3 or 4 but whatever that doesn't matter.

I would like to see a good sized bet on the flop, pretty much I think its best to continue here as though you have the nuts, so bet the same way you have AAA, much closer to pot size.

Again, now onthe turn, you pretty much have the nuts, as no one has shown too much interest, although the one in position is passive so he could have got there but I still like leading a good bet here onthe turn when you make your flush.

As played out, on the river and with that read, 500 hands on villian is substantial, and just by those three stats Imean this guy is passive calling station. You can't possibly call that all in, the price isn't right because he never has a worse hand imo. It just seems like this type of player needs a boat or better here, I would still probably call because its way too tempting, but in theory I think you can argue a fold.

spivey 11-26-2007 01:44 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think your hand is rarely good in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody's arguing with that. Luckily, it only has to be rarely good to make this a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

whats the point in having a read if you arent going to use it? It doesnt matter if hes getting 5:1 on his money if he isnt winning 1 time in 6, its a bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that 1 in 6 times he could have a worse flush. It may very well be a fold though.

Alobar 11-26-2007 01:53 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think your hand is rarely good in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody's arguing with that. Luckily, it only has to be rarely good to make this a call.

[/ QUOTE ]


whats the point in having a read if you arent going to use it? It doesnt matter if hes getting 5:1 on his money if he isnt winning 1 time in 6, its a bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that 1 in 6 times he could have a worse flush. It may very well be a fold though.

[/ QUOTE ]

so 1 time in 6, a loose passive has at best the 3rd nut flush, that he was too scared to bet on the turn acting last, that he then decides is worth a 3 bet all in on the river?

Everyone whos calling this bet, please estimate for me the % chance you are winning....im curious how often you guys think we are good here

RickOSU 11-26-2007 02:14 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
dude.... how can you not bet this turn?!!??!

spivey 11-26-2007 02:17 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think your hand is rarely good in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody's arguing with that. Luckily, it only has to be rarely good to make this a call.

[/ QUOTE ]


whats the point in having a read if you arent going to use it? It doesnt matter if hes getting 5:1 on his money if he isnt winning 1 time in 6, its a bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that 1 in 6 times he could have a worse flush. It may very well be a fold though.

[/ QUOTE ]

so 1 time in 6, a loose passive has at best the 3rd nut flush, that he was too scared to bet on the turn acting last, that he then decides is worth a 3 bet all in on the river?

Everyone whos calling this bet, please estimate for me the % chance you are winning....im curious how often you guys think we are good here

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has a flush, he didn't check it back on the turn because he was scared. He did it because he's a donk. And tying into that, checking this turn is awful OP.


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