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-   -   Nut flush river bet NL 100 (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=554672)

blink20 11-26-2007 01:34 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
Preflop is really the only street I like in this hand, and even there I could express my dislike for the 3.5x raise people like to do, I like 3 or 4 but whatever that doesn't matter.

I would like to see a good sized bet on the flop, pretty much I think its best to continue here as though you have the nuts, so bet the same way you have AAA, much closer to pot size.

Again, now onthe turn, you pretty much have the nuts, as no one has shown too much interest, although the one in position is passive so he could have got there but I still like leading a good bet here onthe turn when you make your flush.

As played out, on the river and with that read, 500 hands on villian is substantial, and just by those three stats Imean this guy is passive calling station. You can't possibly call that all in, the price isn't right because he never has a worse hand imo. It just seems like this type of player needs a boat or better here, I would still probably call because its way too tempting, but in theory I think you can argue a fold.

spivey 11-26-2007 01:44 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think your hand is rarely good in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody's arguing with that. Luckily, it only has to be rarely good to make this a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

whats the point in having a read if you arent going to use it? It doesnt matter if hes getting 5:1 on his money if he isnt winning 1 time in 6, its a bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that 1 in 6 times he could have a worse flush. It may very well be a fold though.

Alobar 11-26-2007 01:53 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think your hand is rarely good in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody's arguing with that. Luckily, it only has to be rarely good to make this a call.

[/ QUOTE ]


whats the point in having a read if you arent going to use it? It doesnt matter if hes getting 5:1 on his money if he isnt winning 1 time in 6, its a bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that 1 in 6 times he could have a worse flush. It may very well be a fold though.

[/ QUOTE ]

so 1 time in 6, a loose passive has at best the 3rd nut flush, that he was too scared to bet on the turn acting last, that he then decides is worth a 3 bet all in on the river?

Everyone whos calling this bet, please estimate for me the % chance you are winning....im curious how often you guys think we are good here

RickOSU 11-26-2007 02:14 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
dude.... how can you not bet this turn?!!??!

spivey 11-26-2007 02:17 PM

Re: Nut flush river bet NL 100
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think your hand is rarely good in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody's arguing with that. Luckily, it only has to be rarely good to make this a call.

[/ QUOTE ]


whats the point in having a read if you arent going to use it? It doesnt matter if hes getting 5:1 on his money if he isnt winning 1 time in 6, its a bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that 1 in 6 times he could have a worse flush. It may very well be a fold though.

[/ QUOTE ]

so 1 time in 6, a loose passive has at best the 3rd nut flush, that he was too scared to bet on the turn acting last, that he then decides is worth a 3 bet all in on the river?

Everyone whos calling this bet, please estimate for me the % chance you are winning....im curious how often you guys think we are good here

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has a flush, he didn't check it back on the turn because he was scared. He did it because he's a donk. And tying into that, checking this turn is awful OP.


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