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-   -   Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=557133)

OziBattler 11-29-2007 10:26 AM

Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
MP1 is a prima grinder regular. he runs at about 15/8/2+ aggro. He isnt very imaginative but does value bet and is decent if somewhat ABC postflop. We've played enough together for him to know Im TAG.

So heres the deal. Once he caps preflop, given I 3bet in the BB (he should know Im not betting light here), his range is almost certainly AA-JJ and AK.

On the turn, if i check and he bets and I dont CR then he will know i dont have a spade. so he will value bet (correctly) with any spade in his range on both the turn and river. You can assume that he will also value bet KK and QQ (without a spade) and probably JJ if i check it down...although to be fair he MIGHT check behind the river if he has QQ/JJ but no Spade.

So heres where the maths come in..and it shouldnt be that hard to do.

1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?
2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?
3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?
4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

I encourage noobs to have a go at this

Prima Network 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero Ponders....

Smurph64 11-29-2007 10:31 AM

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
bet fold turn

Predator314 11-29-2007 10:36 AM

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
In question #1, do you mean does he have a spade? I'm not understanding what a club would have to do with this hand.

OziBattler 11-29-2007 10:39 AM

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
[ QUOTE ]
In question #1, do you mean does he have a spade? I'm not understanding what a club would have to do with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. Ozi is tired and needs to sleep. fixed via edit of OP.

marchron 11-29-2007 10:39 AM

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
[ QUOTE ]
1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a club?

[/ QUOTE ]
All-Blacks: Not just New Zealand's Rugby Team ó it beats an overpair now, too! <font color="white">Countdown to Ozi [censored] up my layout again in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . .</font>

McNeese72 11-29-2007 10:39 AM

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
[ QUOTE ]

1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a club ?


[/ QUOTE ]

You do mean a spade, right?

Doc

marchron 11-29-2007 10:39 AM

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
Damn, late.

TimovieMan 11-29-2007 10:43 AM

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
Iíll let someone else do the math. Iím actually quite interested in the result, but since Iím at work Iíve no access to Stove and canít be arsed to calculate something myselfÖ But I will say just one word about the turn:

Clarkmeister!

fretelöo 11-29-2007 10:50 AM

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
[ QUOTE ]
Iíll let someone else do the math. Iím actually quite interested in the result, but since Iím at work Iíve no access to Stove and canít be arsed to calculate something myselfÖ But I will say just one word about the turn:

Clarkmeister!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, really brilliant. Because since we know that villain - if he has a spade at all - will have Q+, that Clarkmeister is clearly a genious plan. He'll fold his Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and v-bet our ass off with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

fretelöo 11-29-2007 11:03 AM

Re: Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do
 
[ QUOTE ]
1. Given his range, what are teh odds he has a spade?

[/ QUOTE ]

Levelling or something? Odds are 50% obv. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Based on 1 and given the reads i gave, is calldowning down reasonable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming he realizes that you don't have a spade and figures you'll give up some time if he barrels twice - yes.

[ QUOTE ]
3. Is bet/fold the turn better than c/c?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, they both suck. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] But given that even a bad tag will find a good fold every now and then, I'd c/call and hope he's in a bluffing mood.

[ QUOTE ]
4. If we give him a slightly wider range (add hands like TT, AQs) does it change anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

Levelling again? Obv. that changes nothing. % of him holding a single spade is still ~50%. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]


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