one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

villain is the same guy from this hand. he thought this hand was interesting and that i should post it. i think this one might be too game flow-based to generate good discussion, but here it is anyway. same reads.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $202
Hero (BTN): $221.55
SB: $220.90
BB: $252.65
UTG: $188.90
MP: $205.80

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $8</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($19) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $15</font>, Hero calls $15

Turn: ($49) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $34.75</font>, Hero calls $34.75

River: ($118.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $148.05 and is All-In</font>

Re: one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

Flop is obviously standard. You expect him to double barrel the turn, so your call is definetely fine. I'm not really sure how you can fold the river though. It's a great card for villain to 3barrel, and you know he's capable of it. Also, how would villain play Qx? Isn't this a pretty easy shove? I dunno, it looks like with your read, history, and the previous hand (assuming you got looked up and lost), villain is triple barreling with his entire range here. You need to be good here around like 40% of the time to breakeven, so just stove his preflop raising range (probably like top 17-18% of hands), plug in this board and KQo. You definetely have better than 40% equity, so I'm not crazy about a fold at all.

Re: one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

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You expect him to double barrel the turn, so your call is definetely fine.

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i think he's value betting worse on the turn sometimes, too

Re: one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

Would you ever have flatted 7x twice here? If yes, does he know this?

Re: one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

i think this is one of those spots where its a good spot to bluff but by the time villain gets to the river you are probably behind his range. Its probably close, but i dont think anyone here can tell you the right answer.

Re: one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

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Would you ever have flatted 7x twice here? If yes, does he know this?

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this is fairly irrelevant.

the key to this hand is his turn doubling freq. assume he's cbetting the flop basically 100% and shoving the river damn near 100%. the question then is how often is he betting the turn and how well do does KQ on a 77QA3 board fare against that percentage of his preflop range

Re: one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

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this is fairly irrelevant.

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How is this irrelevant? If op's range includes a lot of 7x combos, bluffing here clearly isn't as attractive from villain's POV.

Re: one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

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this is fairly irrelevant.

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How is this irrelevant? If op's range includes a lot of 7x combos, bluffing here clearly isn't as attractive from villain's POV.

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i'm fairly confident that before we even account for the low probability of a 7x holding by OP due to the board we can already significantly discount the likelihood of it given positions and typical opening/calling ranges here

Re: one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

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discount the likelihood of it given positions and typical opening/calling ranges here

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67/78s are definitely in my button calling range. I used to call w/ other crap like 79/57s too...but I'm not sure how OP plays. I know you're just trying to point out that it isn't that big of a factor, but at the same time whether or not OP can have 7x here can and should affect villain's bluffing frequency...even if just marginally so.

Re: one more river spot vs. 2p2er
 

This might be the first hand I've read online where I'm actually curious as to the timing of your calls. If you called quickly on both streets it helps villian rule out a seven and put you on a Q.. people like to think they don't have these timing tells but they do. If you had a seven, you'd think about what to do on the turn and river for a few seconds (it's possible you did, though, and would actually make this an easier river fold.)

If you basically instacall his flop and turn bets it reps a Q everytime. Possible he is not thinking on this level but I think most people can put that together. It's close but I'd fold either way.