is this a clear fold?
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($7.46)
UTG ($3.35)
MP ($6.20)
Button ($9.98)
Hero ($11.22)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.05, Button calls $0.05, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.15</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.10, Button calls $0.10.

Flop: ($-0.80) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($-0.80) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, Button checks.

River: ($-0.80) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.4</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $9.83</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $0

Re: is this a clear fold?
 

As played, folding the river is good. I would raise to .25 preflop and cbet.

Re: is this a clear fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
As played, folding the river is good. I would raise to .25 preflop and cbet.

[/ QUOTE ] ya i normally raise 25 prelfop when i raise not sure why i decided to make it 15 this time

Re: is this a clear fold?
 

Hard to tell what the correct move is. I would have semibluffed the flop with that OESD, maybe about 1/2 pot. That also would have either elicited some folds or some information to use when deciding what to do on the river.

As played I'd call.

Re: is this a clear fold?
 

He does this with a naked Jack easily, but a bit more likely it's a boat. With the raise being so big, you don't have odds to call.

Re: is this a clear fold?
 

Raise more PF. Start at 4xbb + 1bb per limper and maybe adjust that up when you are in the blinds.

As played, CALL RIVER.

Stacking a lone jack here will happen more than being shown a boat IMHO, making this +EV. For him to have a boat here, he'd have to hit that flop pretty hard and that's a messed up flop for him to slowplay two pair/set.

Re: is this a clear fold?
 

fold preflop, imo. KJo is an absolute trap hand oop and you'll often have callers. I only raise when I am very certain that I can pick up the dead money. And if I do raise, I make it bigger to offset my position.

As played, I don't think a set that has filled up would have waited that long to make it's move. MP is full of it. Call.

Re: is this a clear fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise more PF. Start at 4xbb + 1bb per limper and maybe adjust that up when you are in the blinds.

As played, CALL RIVER.

Stacking a lone jack here will happen more than being shown a boat IMHO, making this +EV. For him to have a boat here, he'd have to hit that flop pretty hard and that's a messed up flop for him to slowplay two pair/set.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why you're the man AJ. You're absolutely right, the only hand he could reasonably have that's beating us here is Q9, Even really bad players aren't usually slowplaying this flop.

This is why I suck [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: is this a clear fold?
 

I believe this is a call. I think you'll see trips, lower straight a lot more than you see a boat here.

FWIW, you need 9.43/11.04=.854 in equity to make this a profitable call.

I ran some pokerstove numbers against his range being highly weighted on trips/lower straight rather than all possible boats and a split, and here's what I found:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 88.934% 85.25% 03.69% 104 4.50 { KdJh }
Hand 1: 11.066% 07.38% 03.69% 9 4.50 { 77, AQs-AJs, A9s, KJs, K9s, Q9s+, J9s, J7s, T9s, 97s+, 9h6h, 9s6s, 76s, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQs, AsQh, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdJh, AdJs, AhJs, AsJh, A9o, KJo, Kc9d, Kc9h, Kc9s, Kd9h, Kd9s, Kh9s, QTo+, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qd9s, Qh9s, JTo, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jd9h, Jd9s, Jh9s, J7o, Tc9d, Th9s, 9d8c, 9s8c, 9s8d, 9s8h, 97o, 9d6c, 9h6c, 9h6d, 9s6c, 9s6d, 9s6h, 76o }