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-   -   NL100: J4s in BB flops OESD+FD. Good spot to bluff missed river? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=554049)

AlexB182 11-25-2007 10:22 AM

NL100: J4s in BB flops OESD+FD. Good spot to bluff missed river?
 
Villain is 42/8/0.5 and basically a rather bad player. CS PF but able to lay down hands postflop. Open-limping on the BTN, I think his range is huge here.
I'm running at 18/13 so far.
Comments especially appreciated on my bet sizing on the river. As mentionend, his range here is huge and tough to define, I thought he could easily be on a FD as well for example. In fact I'm betting half pot to make it look like a VB here.
Additionaly, I'd be interested in which range you give villain here and if this is, at all, a good spot for a move on the river.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $80.35
UTG+2: $50.60
MP1: $99.40
MP2: $98.50
CO: $99.50
BTN: $149
SB: $141.45
Hero (BB): $197.35
UTG: $52.70

Pre-Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
6 folds, BTN calls $1, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($2.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $4</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12</font>, BTN calls $8

Turn: ($26.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, BTN calls $17

River: ($60.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $30.50</font>

RapidEvolution 11-25-2007 11:25 AM

Re: NL100: J4s in BB flops OESD+FD. Good spot to bluff missed river?
 
I think the main question is "Do you think a .5 AF (even given his VPIP) is raising the flop without a Queen/KJ?" If I had to guess, (and what else can we do in this spot, right?) he open-limped a hand that he wanted to play, but didn't want to raise. I'd say scs and broadwaus make up a good part of his range (small PPs might be here too). When he raises the flop, I'd put his range as T9/KJ/QJ/TJ/QT and maybe 78s. The river is terrible news for 2 pair hands, but if villain is terrible, he might not read your 1/2 PSB as a value bet (or read it at all) and call you. How many hands do you have on him? Over a large enough smaple, I try not to make moves like this against players with low AFs.


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