DERB
 

Don't ever run bad. Party 30/60 player:

{{Hands 73,824 - VIP 30 - R 17 - NF 21 - ag 2.0
Total winnings: $114,281

Routinely 3 bets small pocket pairs from bb, caps certainly dominated hands.

Fishy?

Re: DERB
 

[censored], they're on to me.

Re: DERB
 

No one has a problem with someone with those stats being up 2000 bb's? It's not like the game is a cakewalk.

Re: DERB
 

Slovenians run good.

Re: DERB
 

I was wondering the same about the same player. That seems amazing to me. He certainly is very aggressive and wins a ton of pots uncontested. I actually wanted to come here and ask the same thing, but obviously you've already done it. Anyone here have any clue as to how this individual does it?

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't ever run bad. Party 30/60 player:

{{Hands 73,824 - VIP 30 - R 17 - NF 21 - ag 2.0
Total winnings: $114,281

Routinely 3 bets small pocket pairs from bb, caps certainly dominated hands.

Fishy?

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, JV, this isn't even funny.

i just emailed a 2p2er about THIS EXACT SAME THING...

i have more hands on him. its obviously the same player.

i have him as a 145k winner at a rate of 3bb/100 over more hands than you have on him.

i asked my friend "how can this be humanly possible that this person plays almost 2X as many hands as i and has a higher win rate.?"

the response: "i certainly wish i knew."

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

Only thing I can think is mb he's working with a few other players? I don't play the party 30 game much at all so I really have no idea.

Re: DERB
 

ok,

so we all know (in this thread) who we're talking about...

if somebody asked me if this was possible i'd say no.

but it is...i dont know how he/she does it (ive certainly seen some very odd play from this person vs. me) but somehow it works...its absolutely amazing.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Only thing I can think is mb he's working with a few other players? I don't play the party 30 game much at all so I really have no idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

i can tell you i will now be VIGILANTLY watching his play.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

what is the NF number? ag is aggression factor right?

Re: DERB
 

Can't an experience be an exact opposite of mine?

I'm stuck 4 dimes in 56k hands. Of course, no one has to believe me, but I play pretty good. Definitely better than the average 15 player. Yet I haven't been able to win and have no reason to think I ever will.

Online is a strange enigma to me. Edge is small, variance is high and you need tons of hands to reach the long term. If I just won anywhere near the proper percentage of times someone hit a 2-outer after throwing in tons of bets, I'd be doing fine. What I'm saying is that this can work in reverse too.

Re: DERB
 

I can see what you're saying, but I think being stuck 4k after 56k hands is a bit different from making 3bb/100 over 145k. From reading your posts to date, I'd be willing to bet it turns around for you, and probably soon.

As for the dude, either a.) this is a very rare statistical anomoly, b.) there is some form of collusion happening, or c.) he is a world-class player, so good that he can make hands profitable that the VAST majority of other players could not

This is real interesting - Jags

Re: DERB
 

VIP 30 - R 17 - NF 21 - ag 2.0

For the computer saavy, is this feasible?

Intuitively, it seems to me that these numbers would be somewhere near optimal if you could actually see your opponents' cards. The random ATo caps and whatnot are obviously horrible, but perhaps some the stuff like that is just provide part of a general cover of donkishness. I don't know [censored] about computers, but I think the sites are pretty damn secure, but what about hacking into other player's computers and just watching their screens. I'm sure some players will have enough security to make this difficult, but many probably will not.

Re: DERB
 

An aggression factor of 2 with a VPIP of 30 is ridiculous. There has to be something up here. That would be like a dude with VPIP 17 having an aggression factor of like 3+. (no math behind that, but you get my point)

- Jags

Re: DERB
 

Not that I believe everything he has to say but you should check out what Russ Georgiev has written on cheating, if you havnt already; it certainly makes you wonder just how prevelant it may be... to say the least.



-Brad

Re: DERB
 

I'd love to see a full rundown of his PT stats, like blind defense numbers, VPIP through various positions, etc.

Posting individual hands might also be enlightening.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd love to see a full rundown of his PT stats, like blind defense numbers, VPIP through various positions, etc.

Posting individual hands might also be enlightening.

[/ QUOTE ]

vpip 30
pfr 17
ag 2.0
nf 21
fold sb- 70
fold bb- 30
fold bb HU- 24
WSD- 41
W$SD- 50
when fold turn- 3
when fold river- 3
c'r- 3
won $: $145k
win rate: 3bb/100

all i can say is jesus effing christ.

-Barron

EXCEL help
 

i want to analyze this stuff statistically.

i need help turning a column of text into separate columns.

furrnetly, for each player i have in excel column A reads:

PLAYERNAME~{{HP - somenumber - VPIP somenumber - Raise somenumber - nofold somenumber - ag somenumber

the remaining 3 columns are similarly edited so i have lots of data but no way to get JUST the #s...

i want to separate EVERYHTING in that cell into its own columns...so where i now have 1 column...i'd like to end up with like 12 or whatever excel can break those things into.

any ideas?
-Barron

Re: EXCEL help
 

I'm no expert, but I think if you highlight the data, go up to "Data" then down to "Text to Columns", it should take you through it...

Good luck.

Josh

Re: EXCEL help
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm no expert, but I think if you highlight the data, go up to "Data" then down to "Text to Columns", it should take you through it...

Good luck.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

btw, if i get this set up i can do ALOT ALOT of useful sets of analyses...i can probably spend an entire day looking at the data and still only graze the surface.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]


ok, JV, this isn't even funny.

i just emailed a 2p2er about THIS EXACT SAME THING...

i have more hands on him. its obviously the same player.

i have him as a 145k winner at a rate of 3bb/100 over more hands than you have on him.

i asked my friend "how can this be humanly possible that this person plays almost 2X as many hands as i and has a higher win rate.?"

the response: "i certainly wish i knew."

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I emailed him too. I just can't get my head around these stats.

93k hands, 30/17/2.0, 144k earned, filtered for 7+ players. How?

Re: EXCEL help
 

I don't know about excel, but I'd like to know how many sigmas off the norm this is. The fact that he's from the poker capital of the world scares me also and the weird beats he put on me as if he could see the cards. Bet I'm not the first loser to say that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: EXCEL help
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know about excel, but I'd like to know how many sigmas off the norm this is. The fact that he's from the poker capital of the world scares me also and the weird beats he put on me as if he could see the cards. Bet I'm not the first loser to say that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

you're not...the first person or a loser.

but we will find out a lot from the data if i can get the columns separated.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


ok, JV, this isn't even funny.

i just emailed a 2p2er about THIS EXACT SAME THING...

i have more hands on him. its obviously the same player.

i have him as a 145k winner at a rate of 3bb/100 over more hands than you have on him.

i asked my friend "how can this be humanly possible that this person plays almost 2X as many hands as i and has a higher win rate.?"

the response: "i certainly wish i knew."

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I emailed him too. I just can't get my head around these stats.

93k hands, 30/17/2.0, 144k earned, filtered for 7+ players. How?

[/ QUOTE ]

i imported the data to excel...i'll be working on this till i get some answers so rest assued.

Barron

Re: DERB
 

I think you'll find that he extracts a lot postflop when he is ahead and looses if not minimum then far less when he is behind. Also look for his winrate when raising the turn! I'm pretty sure it'll be something like 70%.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you'll find that he extracts a lot postflop when he is ahead or sucks out and loses if not minimum then far less when he is behind and doesn't suck out . Also look for his winrate when raising the turn! I'm pretty sure it'll be something like 70%.

[/ QUOTE ]


FYP

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you'll find that he extracts a lot postflop when he is ahead and looses if not minimum then far less when he is behind. Also look for his winrate when raising the turn! I'm pretty sure it'll be something like 70%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding me? Dude will raise and three-bet the turn with middle pair. Probably the lightest three-betting regular in the game. But as I've said many times about this player, I'm sure he makes a lot of money against people who are unable or unwilling to properly adjust to him.
-James

Re: DERB
 

Mathematical anomaly more than likely. I'm on a downswing that would make most players puke. Cannot win, and I play very tight/solid poker. Just as a strong player can run atrociously bad for an extended period of time, a LAG/maniac can run exceptionally good for an extended period of time.

PokerPrince

Re: DERB
 

It's funny how these discussions always seem to turn into an ego thing. I don't know if it has occured to anybody that this guy might be good, but just using another strategy than the standard 2+2 TAG. I think we should await Cypher's analysis an see if we can learn something!

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Mathematical anomaly more than likely. I'm on a downswing that would make most players puke. Cannot win, and I play very tight/solid poker. Just as a strong player can run atrociously bad for an extended period of time, a LAG/maniac can run exceptionally good for an extended period of time.

PokerPrince

[/ QUOTE ]

how many hands is your downswing?? i bet its like 1/10th of the time this guy has "run" this well.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's funny how these discussions always seem to turn into an ego thing. I don't know if it has occured to anybody that this guy might be good, but just using another strategy than the standard 2+2 TAG. I think we should await Cypher's analysis an see if we can learn something!

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you think i wanna do this...

if you would have asked me 1yr ago if a guy who plays 30% of his hands (or vol puts $ in pot) can win i'd say no...

but now maybe we can see wtf in gods name is going on b/c its not only happeneing, and he's not only winning, but he's the biggest winner period.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
But as I've said many times about this player, I'm sure he makes a lot of money against people who are unable or unwilling to properly adjust to him.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is likely very correct. An important sideeffect is that good players will often be forced out of the pot and leave him with the guys who are dumb enough to play back at him with little or nothing. There is probably a lot of iso raises behind this guy preventing others from entering the pot and when the raising wars start postflop you'll often have to let go of an otherwise decent draw. My point is that even if you win money from this guy when you are in a hand with him, he can still put a dent in your EV by keeping you out of pots that would have been profitable for you.

Re: DERB
 

I'm sorry Cypher, I wasn't refering to you. My response was meant for mmcd and James.

Re: DERB
 

Any results from the data yet?

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Any results from the data yet?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL bite me!!!!!!!!

when i wrote papers for the dept of labor it took me 4 months out of the 8 months to organize, correctly set up variables and constrcut models...

this is clearly easier and the data is fiarly easy to wade through once i get it into columns and the variables are constructed but i still need to put thought into the analysis...if i gave you something now you should question the efficacy of my methods.

-Barron

Re: DERB
 

exploitative strategies, this Thread might be of interest. Particularly Granny and Angelinas (Izmet's) replies.

Re: DERB
 

Seriously. Stop making it sound like those stats are tenable. Let me say it again 30 17 2.0

His turn raise win rate sucks for sure.

Re: DERB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously. Stop making it sound like those stats are tenable. Let me say it again 30 17 2.0

His turn raise win rate sucks for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you suggesting that he pulls the 3BB/100 out of his ass?

Re: DERB
 

He can't win and thats a guarantee.

Re: DERB
 

Absolutely. He is a horrible player. Probably running really well.

The real question is: are you suggesting he is actually good? He is so bad it's not even a question. Maybe you have not seen him play.