Two Plus Two Newer Archives

Two Plus Two Newer Archives (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Micro Stakes (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=71)
-   -   25NL QQ Flop Decision (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=548415)

c4mg 11-17-2007 04:30 PM

25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
I know the min raise was bad. No reads. Thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($37.95)
CO ($25.45)
Button ($24.65)
Hero ($32.30)
BB ($18.20)
UTG ($16.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.85</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2.9</font>, Hero calls $2.80, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $2.05.

Flop: ($8.95) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $5</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $40.05 (All-In)</font>, Hero???

It was only $19 for me to call fwiw.

bsball8806 11-17-2007 04:43 PM

Re: 25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
Call. Doubtful he plays AA or KK this way. 10's have us crushed, but he could have JJ, AQd, AJd, A10. We're getting laid more than 2:1.

infinity235 11-17-2007 06:20 PM

Re: 25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
Board: 8d Th 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.299% 33.45% 01.85% 8609 477.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 64.701% 62.85% 01.85% 16177 477.00 { TT+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd }


Call.

Anyone have suggestions for villain's range?

p-brane 11-17-2007 08:04 PM

Re: 25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
[ QUOTE ]
Board: 8d Th 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.299% 33.45% 01.85% 8609 477.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 64.701% 62.85% 01.85% 16177 477.00 { TT+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd }


Call.

Anyone have suggestions for villain's range?

[/ QUOTE ]

My first post of this kind so please tell me if I'm wrong, but here's my thinking. If you add 88 and 33 to that range his equity drops from 35% to 30.679%.

And based on experience, I would weight a set a little more than a flush draw on this shove which actually pushes the equity back up a little.

Now I count there's about $59 in the pot and hero's call is $19. So the pot is offering him 3:1. So his point of indifference would be 25% equity yet he has somewhere between 30% and 35% equity depending on whether or not you weight sets.

Definite call.

Also, bet more on the flop and then its an even easier call, plus villain becomes slightly more likely to fold.

bsball8806 11-17-2007 08:06 PM

Re: 25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
add 88, 33, and J9d to the stove

Somnius 11-17-2007 08:09 PM

Re: 25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
Ye even with AA,KK,AK it's a call but I doubt those are even in the range.

You don't like 4-betting this preflop?...button's reraise doesn't mean that much considering his position.

c4mg 11-17-2007 08:13 PM

Re: 25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
I thought about it for 10 seconds and called.
He showed 88 for a set. I was convinced that he had 99 (less likely), A10 or JJ.

As far as 4-betting the flop goes, it was already raised to about 12xBB and I didn't want to get it AI pf, something that would have happened since MP probably folded AK/AQ...

SnowAngel 11-17-2007 08:13 PM

Re: 25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
Iam always calling here.

Somnius 11-17-2007 08:19 PM

Re: 25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
Hm, perhaps it's just me then...I like 4-betting that...MP and Button are in there...they both fold...yippee I take it down now...MP calls and Button folds, meh..same type of situation...MP folds and Button Calls, meh, set/draw fishing with his 3-bet SC, PP...overcards. Both call, Similar type of situation as in now. MP pushes, avoid this situation cause you can pretty much fold if his range is in order. Button pushes, ibid...maybe I'm just a nut [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

p-brane 11-17-2007 09:19 PM

Re: 25NL QQ Flop Decision
 
[ QUOTE ]
add 88, 33, and J9d to the stove

[/ QUOTE ]

On second thought, I think it's a fold . Without having PT stats on the villain, I was thinking about proper weighting of sets vs. draws and overpairs for the average micro limit player, and testing them with stove. I think it's about even tending toward fold. Here are the weighted ranges I used and it becomes a slight call if you think the villain would make this play with JJ, but a fold if not.

Board: 8d 3d Th
Dead:

<u>Slight call, but almost indifferent to calling or folding</u>
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.669% 28.67% 00.00% 8231 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 71.331% 71.33% 00.00% 20479 0.00 { KK+, JJ-TT, 88, 33, AdKd, Jd9d }

<u>Definite fold</u>
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.224% 13.22% 00.00% 3011 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 86.776% 86.78% 00.00% 19759 0.00 { KK+, TT, 88, 33, AdKd, Jd9d }

And against a really tight player:
<u>Also a definite fold, but notice slightly higher equity than against the loose guy that shoved with KK</u>
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.404% 14.40% 00.00% 1426 0.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 85.596% 85.60% 00.00% 8474 0.00 { TT, 88, 33, Jd9d }

This is a great learning process for me. I see similar situations to this all the time, so please tell me if you see a flaw in my reasoning. I weighted down the flush draw to just 1 in 4 and I weighted overpairs down to AA and KK only.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:34 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.