2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

Am presently in Vegas making the rounds at the 1/2 and 2/5 tables around the strip. Had this aces hand the other night and was unsure of where my mistakes/mistake was, though I was sure I'd made one. It was my last hand of the night before I even looked at the cards. I have about $350.

Picked up AA UTG in a full ring. Raise to $20. 3 callers.

Flop comes K - 9 - 4 rainbow. Bet $50. One caller. Little information, as he's only been at the table for about two rounds, but he's only played a hand or two in that time.

Turn: K

I think for a moment and check. Villain bets $50. I fold.

Given his tight image from what I'd been able to gather so far I put him on a King. Other possibilities included pockets Jacks and above. I got much criticism from one other player at the table, and though he was a terrible player, it got me thinking. I have an idea of what my biggest mistakes were in this hand, but would like to hear some feedback before revealing them. Thanks

Re: 2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

Since you put him on a King, you should trust your read and feel good about your fold. If you didn't have a good read, then bet/fold, check/call trying to get to showdown cheaply, or check/fold are all reasonable. Complete judgment call.

Re: 2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

Well, let's try looking at it this way.

If you check, you are giving up the hand - it invites a bet you cannot call. $180 in the pot you are surrendering.

If you bet and are called or raised, you probably cannot put any more money into the pot. So it will be your last bet, and it will either win you the $180 or lose you the size of the bet. $120 is a "reasonable" betsize here.

So then...

Your bet is getting 3:2 on your money (can win $180 or lose $120), so he has to fold 40% of the time to make this worth it. Are you more than 40% sure he has the king?

But what about...

If you bet $60 you're getting 1:3. Note that this looks like a suck-in bet - meant to be called - and will be just as hard for a non-K hand to call as the $120 bet. Are you 25% sure he has the king?

Thoughts?

(I ran into this situation almost exactly recently, and I'm not sure what the best line is so I'm interested to hear. In my case I led the turn strong and stacked off to a raise which turned out to be a bluff and dragged the pot.)

Re: 2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

Personally I think the latter option is the best. I thought I should have bet $50-80 on that turn. The players at 2/5 at the Bellagio are pretty awful, and though this guy was playing fairly tight I don't think he was an exception. A small bet certainly has to be more profitable than folding, anyways. This was a really [censored] hand which demonstrates the power of position, unfortunately.

Re: 2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

Based on what you think of him you played this fine. He calls a pfr in position. Flop comes K high which easily fits a common raise hand of AK. You bet it strong and he calls. There is no significant draw out there. He should have a K or a set.

Re: 2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

Your biggest mistake in this hand was voluntary showing the other player(s) in the table your folded pocket aces. Firstly, this move encourages them to make more aggressively and trickily against you. Secondly, in the post-mortem discussions, it makes weaker players aware that deep strategy and thought exists in poker.

Otherwise, the play is fine.

Re: 2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

Play looks pretty good here. If this guy is any good then he KNOWS you have a good hand here like always and would not try to push you off of it. However, given that the perfect scare card hits, b/f might be better, but c/f isn't terrible here. No good player tries to move you off aces or a big hand on your last hand at the table in this manner IMO.

Re: 2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

i would think that if a good player "new" OP had aces here, the only play for him (assuming he doesn't have a K) is to either try to move him off which he can do if he knows OP can get away from aces, or give it up. its also very tough to give up a pot when the door was opened as wide as it was for a steal.

Re: 2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

What I'm saying is that once a player's chips are racked and he enters a pot then it is apparent he has a strong hand. Very few players enter a pot in that spot without a real hand (even moreso because they are also UTG). Thus, a competent player won't even call the cbet in this situation without having something that beats OP once the turn pairs the king. He simply wouldn't be in the position to try to move him off with a worse hand.

Re: 2/5 AA hand at the Bellagio - Where\'s my mistake?
 

but what strong hand does the player have? AA-JJ, AKs maybe? my point is that if you know that he's stong, he cbets flop, then checks turn, what hands are you putting him on? AA that are afraid of a K, QQ,JJ? AKs is c/c or c/r, so why would villain bother with a bet? if villain calls PFR w/ decent cards or nothing, why not take off another on a standard continuation bet either trying to hit a card or catch a scare card that OP can fold to? are you trying to win this pot or are you just trying to make the best hand?