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-   -   WPT Fallsview: Value bet this river? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=557926)

PhatPots 11-30-2007 11:48 AM

WPT Fallsview: Value bet this river?
 
Second level of the tournament. The table hasn't been to crazy, not that many big memorable hands.

The players in question, MP2 is pretty laggy. He had his stack get down to about 5,000 but has since built it back up to about 18,000 at this point. He lost a lot of it from calling preflop and calling a flop bet and then folding. He likes to make pot sized continuation bets. A couple times he got to the river where his opponent showed a winner that was top pair and a marginal kicker that was good.

SB is an old nit. His ethnic background could be greek and he is in his mid 50s-early 60s. He has opened folded 66 from the Sb before when I made a standard CO raise at the 25/50 level. He has also mumbled a couple of times in another language when he didn't get any action with AA or AK when he made a raise preflop and shown these hands. He has been tight and most hands with him he has had a winner if he has gone past the flop. He is bad nitty thought. Doesn't seem like a good player.

I have been a little aggressive preflop but haven't really gotten out of line on the flop, except for one time when I called K9s out of the BB when the CO raised and we played a pot 4 handed. The flop was two diamonds and the board paired. I bet into the raiser on the flop and turn. And the river was checked and he had a bigger pair.

Hero has 18,000
MP2 Has 18,000
SB has 22,000


blinds are 50/100 at this point.

Preflop: Hero has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] OTB
Folded to MP2, <font color="red">MP2 raises to 400</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets 1,200</font>, Hero calls, SB calls

Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 2,400 </font>, SB calls, MP2 calls

MP2 called the turn very quickly. I thought he might have a higher club, but I will fold a river that has another club. I know I should have bet more here, but I did want the to have some control of the pot size.

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, MP2 checks, Hero?

I was really wondering what the SB could have in this hand. I thought AQ is a possibility maybe with the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but It felt like he would have shown some strength somewhere. This is probably the largest pot that got to the river 3-handed at the table at this point in time.

Cornell Fiji 11-30-2007 01:40 PM

Re: WPT Fallsview: Value bet this river?
 
what gives you any indication that you are beat?

what gives you any indication that there is not a bet between 3500-all in that they would not call without a flush?

what gives you any indication that they could check-shove bluff?

are you really questioning whether or not to value bet this river?

Annette_15 11-30-2007 07:05 PM

Re: WPT Fallsview: Value bet this river?
 
I'm valuebetting here 100% of the time.. Can easily see sb having something like AQ or KQ. Maybe even an overpair for MP2. Bet like 3-4k and hope for two crying calls.

Annette

Rekwob 12-01-2007 01:03 AM

Re: WPT Fallsview: Value bet this river?
 
if you're worried about being check/shove bluffed (and incorrectly folding) then shove yourself

if you're cool with calling a check raise then bet 4k and call that shove

im sure you'll have made worse mistakes than checking this river but you should have really bet

PhatPots 12-01-2007 12:35 PM

Re: WPT Fallsview: Value bet this river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
what gives you any indication that you are beat?

what gives you any indication that there is not a bet between 3500-all in that they would not call without a flush?

what gives you any indication that they could check-shove bluff?

are you really questioning whether or not to value bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't think I gave the impression of how Nitty this guy was. You really have to wonder what he has on the turn when he calls a 1/2 pot bet with another player behind him.

They won't call an all-in unless I am crushed. This I am 100% certain of. No one has really gotten out of line at this table. I am not worried about being check-raised as a bluff.

I am just trying to think of whether the Nit has a higher flush or a full house or TPTK (Maybe KQ, unlikely). And it can really only be 1 of those 3. There is nothing else that he can possibly have. But given that he is a Nit, will he call a river bet with AQ or KQ with another player to act behind him?

The aggressive player I probably have crushed, he could easily have JT, KQ, etc.

Cornell Fiji 12-01-2007 01:02 PM

Re: WPT Fallsview: Value bet this river?
 
if you know that you will not get check raised as a bluff (or at least you are confident that you can fold to a cr without passing up equity) then not throwing out 4,000 on the end here is criminal.

you are passing up massive amounts of equity by checking this assuming that they have a better hand and they will not call another bet with worse when they will only need to be right ~one time in 4


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