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-   -   Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=361361)

traz 03-26-2007 02:34 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
you are one bizarre person durron

shortline99 03-26-2007 02:34 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Shortline, I would consider the null hypothesis for werewolf to be X is a villager.

[/ QUOTE ]
then why do we vote for wolves instead of villagers?

chim17 03-26-2007 02:34 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Durron, I'm dissapointed you can normally read me as a villager. Although that last turbo you were completely wrong as well.

Traz is a wolf, though.. we should definitely vote him today.

Neil S 03-26-2007 02:35 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Shortline, I would consider the null hypothesis for werewolf to be X is a villager.

[/ QUOTE ]As would I, but that would be more of a clue about how one approaches the game than anything. Are you trying to point out who's wolfy and a most likely lynch, or are you trying to clear villagers? One strategy may be more likely to give dangerous blinders than the other.

traz 03-26-2007 02:35 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]

You are hardly an easy target.


[/ QUOTE ]

lies, somehow I'm a super easy target, as can be seen by today.

My opinions have become fair justification for lynching me lol

lastchance 03-26-2007 02:35 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Rereading: Early Luckay wagon is the suck.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:36 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
you are one bizarre person durron

[/ QUOTE ]

so neil's list has, in my opinion, 1 wolf and 6 villagers and i think it's an awful list and that makes me bizarre?

by the way, last few games you insulted me like this you were a wolf. fyi for those paying attention.

GetThere1Time 03-26-2007 02:36 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Now with more spreadsheet

[1] Aaronk56
[0] Bluffblank voted for Neil S
[0] boiler_bd voted for Iron_Yuppie
[2] Chim17 voted for Traz
[0] Chuckleslovakian voted for Durron
[0] Dmk voted for Durron
[0] Durron597 voted for Chim17
[1] DustinG
[0] Econophile voted for Vavavoom
[0] FCBLComish voted for Zurvan
[1] Fmxda voted for WDCBooks
[0] fnord_too voted for Nez477
[2] Iron_Yuppie
[1] JaredL
[0] Jeremy517
[0] Kbar13
[0] Kumubou voted for AaronK56
[0] Kyrosmother voted for Voj
[0] Lastchance
<font color="red"> [3] Luckayluck voted for LuckayLuck </font>
[0] Mark_K
[0] MdoranD voted for Zurvan
[0] Metsandfinsfan
[2] Neil S voted for LuckayLuck
[1] Nez477 voted for DustinG
[0] Shortline99 voted for Iron_Yuppie
[2] Sighing voted for LuckayLuck
[0] Thebram voted for Fmxda
[0] TiedUp14
[1] Traz voted for Chim17
[1] Vavavoom
[1] Voj voted for Neil S
[1] Wdcbooks voted for Sighing
[0] Xoom voted for JaredL
[2] Zurvan voted for Sighing


25 mins for day event votes

chim17 03-26-2007 02:36 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You are hardly an easy target.


[/ QUOTE ]

lies, somehow I'm a super easy target, as can be seen by today.

My opinions have become fair justification for lynching me lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, what the hell are you talking about?

How often do Traz wagons go crazy on the first day? No one suggests you early because you are "always wolfy". There are a number of targets that are easy outs, you are not one of them.

My vote stays on Traz.

lastchance 03-26-2007 02:37 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You are hardly an easy target.


[/ QUOTE ]

lies, somehow I'm a super easy target, as can be seen by today.

My opinions have become fair justification for lynching me lol

[/ QUOTE ]
Lynching you is moronic, but less moronic in games like ASX.

Nez477 03-26-2007 02:37 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
traz,

please explain to me what you see wolfy in fnord

[/ QUOTE ]

Or Chim. Seriously, Chim isn't good enough to come back to your accusation with the post he did as a wolf IMO.

And btw, my reads are getting a lot better, so don't just push them aside. My noob status may be close to being a thing of the past.

I still am waiting to find a good vote candidate today, but I can Unvote for the time being.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:37 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
by the way i retract my previous shortline is a villager read to meh land.

dmk 03-26-2007 02:37 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
GT1T, my vote is on Durron but its not showing up in the count (Needs to be Durron597 I'm guessing)

traz 03-26-2007 02:38 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
chim turning around and somehow being sure i'm a wolf is even more reassuring that I'm right

fnord_too 03-26-2007 02:39 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Shorty I fail to see how type 1 or 2 errors and their severity in economics applies to werewolf. Why is it so bad to call a wolf a villager?

[/ QUOTE ]

First: type 1 and type 2 errors are not (AT ALL) specific to econometrics. Think of it this way: A type one error is the worst type of error from your perspective (false positive or flase negative) and a type two is the other one. So a type one error for a tabaco company would be saying cigarettes lead to a higher incident of lung cancer when they in fact don't, and a type two error for a tabaco company would be saying they don't when they do. (This is exactly the opposite way a consumer or insurance company would define the errors, and it is possible for the same data to support both conclusions depending on how you establish your errors, because you can only bound one type of error tightly in an experiment, but I digress.)

What shorty is saying is clearing a wolf is far worse because lynching a villager does not lose the game for you but not lynching a wolf does.

Sorry for the brief lesson, wiki or google experiment plan or type I error for a complete discourse on the subject.

Nez477 03-26-2007 02:39 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are one bizarre person durron

[/ QUOTE ]

so neil's list has, in my opinion, 1 wolf and 6 villagers and i think it's an awful list and that makes me bizarre?

by the way, last few games you insulted me like this you were a wolf. fyi for those paying attention.

[/ QUOTE ]

To further point this out, Neil already has a wolf list with 7 people on it day 1.

Doesn't anyone find this odd???

durron597 03-26-2007 02:39 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You are hardly an easy target.


[/ QUOTE ]

lies, somehow I'm a super easy target, as can be seen by today.

My opinions have become fair justification for lynching me lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, what the hell are you talking about?

How often do Traz wagons go crazy on the first day? No one suggests you early because you are "always wolfy". There are a number of targets that are easy outs, you are not one of them.

My vote stays on Traz.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post is as villagery as the other one was wolfy.

traz

chim17 03-26-2007 02:39 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
chim turning around and somehow being sure i'm a wolf is even more reassuring that I'm right

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you remember a time you were right on me? Or better yet a time you ever felt I was a villager? I am always wolf or on the "meh" list for you.

Your response to being an easy target is ludicrous, imo.

shortline99 03-26-2007 02:39 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
okay, we're going chim today

traz 03-26-2007 02:39 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are one bizarre person durron

[/ QUOTE ]

so neil's list has, in my opinion, 1 wolf and 6 villagers and i think it's an awful list and that makes me bizarre?

by the way, last few games you insulted me like this you were a wolf. fyi for those paying attention.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you bizarre is your conclusion that me and chim are both wolves. That's pretty funny.

Also, like I said, people remember what's most recent. You're forgetting all the times I insult you as a villager. For the same reasons...you're terrible on day 1, but you act like you're not. At least most people recognize that they're terrible

sighing 03-26-2007 02:40 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Shortline's posts seem very different for him.. not at all manipulative (at least in the way he usually is), so I'm inclined strongly to see him as village. Durron also seems village based on how he acted in The Two Towers.

My best read for now is Chim, but that's pretty weak. I think there are like ten people who haven't even posted yet, which kinda sucks in a game with a 3pm vote deadline. Still inclined toward the "move forward" option as far as that goes.

Jeremy517 03-26-2007 02:40 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Villagers: boiler, traz

Wolf: chim

traz 03-26-2007 02:41 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
chim turning around and somehow being sure i'm a wolf is even more reassuring that I'm right

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you remember a time you were right on me? Or better yet a time you ever felt I was a villager? I am always wolf or on the "meh" list for you.

Your response to being an easy target is ludicrous, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Look what happened when I stated my opinions lol. Like 8 ppl said LOLLER WOLF, simply because their minds can't grasp something outside of what they see.

Also, you're doing the same thing nich does, and it doesn't work on me. I've called you a wolf and been correct FAR MORE than I have been wrong.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:41 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shorty I fail to see how type 1 or 2 errors and their severity in economics applies to werewolf. Why is it so bad to call a wolf a villager?

[/ QUOTE ]

First: type 1 and type 2 errors are not (AT ALL) specific to econometrics. Think of it this way: A type one error is the worst type of error from your perspective (false positive or flase negative) and a type two is the other one. So a type one error for a tabaco company would be saying cigarettes lead to a higher incident of lung cancer when they in fact don't, and a type two error for a tabaco company would be saying they don't when they do. (This is exactly the opposite way a consumer or insurance company would define the errors, and it is possible for the same data to support both conclusions depending on how you establish your errors, because you can only bound one type of error tightly in an experiment, but I digress.)

What shorty is saying is clearing a wolf is far worse because lynching a villager does not lose the game for you but not lynching a wolf does.

Sorry for the brief lesson, wiki or google experiment plan or type I error for a complete discourse on the subject.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is zero chance fnord is a wolf this game.

traz 03-26-2007 02:41 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
And there have also been many times where I've defended you as a villager and been correct

shortline99 03-26-2007 02:41 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
also, thanks fnord

i'm just burned out from last night and i wanted to articulate how i was feeling today

Neil S 03-26-2007 02:42 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
okay, we're going chim today

[/ QUOTE ][Lynching chim] works, but what do you think of Luckay, Shortline? He HAS gotten quiet, which tells me that one way or another, the lynch threat that dmk and I made may be keeping him in line for now. That or he's just gotten all his silly strategy out of his system this morning. So I don't know what to think of him now.

fmxda 03-26-2007 02:42 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shortline, I would consider the null hypothesis for werewolf to be X is a villager.

[/ QUOTE ]
then why do we vote for wolves instead of villagers?

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a good point, but isn't most people's approach to werewolf looking for things that make suspects wolfy? Trying to disprove the null.

I usually vote for people because I have evidence that they are abnormal, not because I think everyone else is normal.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:42 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
chim turning around and somehow being sure i'm a wolf is even more reassuring that I'm right

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you remember a time you were right on me? Or better yet a time you ever felt I was a villager? I am always wolf or on the "meh" list for you.

Your response to being an easy target is ludicrous, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

and this one is wolfy

chim17 03-26-2007 02:42 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
chim turning around and somehow being sure i'm a wolf is even more reassuring that I'm right

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you remember a time you were right on me? Or better yet a time you ever felt I was a villager? I am always wolf or on the "meh" list for you.

Your response to being an easy target is ludicrous, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Look what happened when I stated my opinions lol. Like 8 ppl said LOLLER WOLF, simply because their minds can't grasp something outside of what they see.

Also, you're doing the same thing nich does, and it doesn't work on me. I've called you a wolf and been correct FAR MORE than I have been wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are simply wrong here. But most of the info is from turbos as I haven't played many long games.

You don't read me well, Traz.

Mark_K 03-26-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
obviously, traz thinks that whoever i vote first must be a villager

however, he hasn't realized that my reads have actually been pretty good in my last few games.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

go jump in a lake

p.s. all my suggestions so far have been caveated that i am often wrong and i may change the read later

that doesn't mean that neil's list isn't, in general, awful

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, here are two posts by Durran this game. So Durron are your reads good or often wrong?

chuckleslovakian 03-26-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shorty I fail to see how type 1 or 2 errors and their severity in economics applies to werewolf. Why is it so bad to call a wolf a villager?

[/ QUOTE ]

First: type 1 and type 2 errors are not (AT ALL) specific to econometrics. Think of it this way: A type one error is the worst type of error from your perspective (false positive or flase negative) and a type two is the other one. So a type one error for a tabaco company would be saying cigarettes lead to a higher incident of lung cancer when they in fact don't, and a type two error for a tabaco company would be saying they don't when they do. (This is exactly the opposite way a consumer or insurance company would define the errors, and it is possible for the same data to support both conclusions depending on how you establish your errors, because you can only bound one type of error tightly in an experiment, but I digress.)

What shorty is saying is clearing a wolf is far worse because lynching a villager does not lose the game for you but not lynching a wolf does.

Sorry for the brief lesson, wiki or google experiment plan or type I error for a complete discourse on the subject.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is zero chance fnord is a wolf this game.

[/ QUOTE ]
or fnord is very smart, and he could type that up no matter what is role is. How the [censored] does that clear him?

traz 03-26-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
I thought I was a wolf, what happened to that?

econophile 03-26-2007 02:43 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
shorty's appeal to econometrics means i will not be voting him for a few days

traz 03-26-2007 02:44 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
or am I merely reading you wrong now lol

GetThere1Time 03-26-2007 02:44 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Thanks DMK, fixed.



[1] Aaronk56
[0] Bluffblank voted for Neil S
[0] boiler_bd voted for Iron_Yuppie
<font color="red"> [5] Chim17 voted for Traz </font>
[0] Chuckleslovakian voted for Durron597
[0] Dmk voted for Durron597
[2] Durron597 voted for Traz
[0] DustinG
[0] Econophile voted for Vavavoom
[0] FCBLComish voted for Zurvan
[1] Fmxda voted for WDCBooks
[0] fnord_too voted for Nez477
[1] Iron_Yuppie
[1] JaredL
[0] Jeremy517 voted for Chim17
[0] Kbar13
[0] Kumubou voted for AaronK56
[0] Kyrosmother voted for Voj
[0] Lastchance
[1] Luckayluck voted for LuckayLuck
[0] Mark_K
[0] MdoranD voted for Zurvan
[0] Metsandfinsfan
[2] Neil S voted for Chim17
[1] Nez477
[0] Shortline99 voted for Chim17
[2] Sighing voted for Chim17
[0] Thebram voted for Fmxda
[0] TiedUp14
[2] Traz voted for Chim17
[1] Vavavoom
[1] Voj voted for Neil S
[1] Wdcbooks voted for Sighing
[0] Xoom voted for JaredL
[2] Zurvan voted for Sighing

durron597 03-26-2007 02:44 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]

What makes you bizarre is your conclusion that me and chim are both wolves. That's pretty funny.

[/ QUOTE ]

if chim is a wolf, most of the time his vote there is because he thinks he will go down soon and is trying to give you cover

durron597 03-26-2007 02:45 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]

Hmm, here are two posts by Durran this game. So Durron are your reads good or often wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

in my most recent werewolf (two turbos and the end of two towers) i've been right (my two towers switch had a lot less to do with being wrong on books and a lot more to do with what final three i wanted). but before that i'm wrong a lot.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:46 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]

or fnord is very smart, and he could type that up no matter what is role is. How the [censored] does that clear him?

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not the only post that i think is fnord-villager

chim17 03-26-2007 02:46 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
or am I merely reading you wrong now lol

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're a wolf.. but clearly nothing at this point is 100%.

If you are a villager you are wrong on me.. again.

It is my opinion of you that you are good at picking out a target people arne't talking about and nail them early. You talked about Bluff and I which is an easy out. I hated your response saying you are an easy target.

None of this matters, though.. everyone will listen to you day one.. just get your "oops" post ready ahead of time.


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