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-   -   Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=361361)

Neil S 03-26-2007 02:01 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
For the record, anyone who suspects someone like me or traz because we've been wolves lately, is acting very stupidly.

Zurvan 03-26-2007 02:02 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Durron and neil are probably wolves.

[/ QUOTE ]Grouping me with Durron makes me think Durron's a villager, too.



[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

chim17 03-26-2007 02:03 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Is Neil trying to get lynched?

I'm starting to reconsider because how could a wolf post like this? heh

traz 03-26-2007 02:04 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
vote chim

traz 03-26-2007 02:04 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
also, so many people only remember as far as the last game. It's pretty funny

Neil S 03-26-2007 02:05 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Guys, go read ASXI days 2 and on. I was a villager in that game, and some rock-solid villagers were dead-sure I was a wolf there, too.

Move on elsewhere. I'm unreadable early it seems.

I'm also often dead wrong in my reads, too, just look back at ANY game of mine to see that. I know traz has that megagame thing where right == village and wrong == wolf, but applying that to someone like me, with a track record of being totally wrong often, is silly.

Now go lynch Luckay please. And I apologize for the post count. Habits are hard to break.

chim17 03-26-2007 02:07 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
I'm apparently one of the only people Traz can't read.. he never clears me as a villager, and is wrong on me again.

I think I was probably wrong on Neil with his posting now... going to reread while playing these tournies and see what I can come up with.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:09 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Durron and neil are probably wolves.

[/ QUOTE ]Grouping me with Durron makes me think Durron's a villager, too.



[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

fo realz

Mark_K 03-26-2007 02:12 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Iron, why do you think that the saboteur didn't get a n0 trap set option? I didn't see this when I quickly read through the rules.

[/ QUOTE ]

DMK quoted it below. I thought I was going crazy for a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, Thanks DMK and Iron... I read that passage several times and missed this inference each time.

Neil S 03-26-2007 02:15 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Grr.. sorry again but this idea just came into my head:

Durron, why aren't you continuing with the same concilatory, persuasive tone from TTT that you carried over into the turbo where we were wolves together?

durron597 03-26-2007 02:16 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Grr.. sorry again but this idea just came into my head:

Durron, why aren't you continuing with the same concilatory, persuasive tone from TTT that you carried over into the turbo where we were wolves together?

[/ QUOTE ]

because traz is pissing me off

Nez477 03-26-2007 02:17 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Luckay, durron, fmxda, chim, bluff, fnord, IY, voj

Werewolf? THERE wolf.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where'd I go?

shortline99 03-26-2007 02:20 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
In econometrics, people often refer to Type I and Type II errors. A type I error occurs when you reject a null statement as false when it is true. A type II error occurs when you accept a null statement as possibly true when it is false.

The goal of modeling there is to reduce the total number of errors made, but a Type I error is far, far more serious than a Type II error. Thus steps are made whenever possible to avoid Type I errors, even at the cost of possibly committing a Type II error.

The null statement for the game of werewolf is: <u>X is a wolf.</u>

It is FAR, FAR more serious to clear a wolf (a Type I error) than to call a villager a wolf (a Type II error).

Villagers should take ANY STEPS POSSIBLE to ensure that they are not clearing wolves.

Thus, Luckay, shut up forever and always.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Neil S 03-26-2007 02:20 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Luckay, durron, fmxda, chim, bluff, fnord, IY, voj

Werewolf? THERE wolf.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where'd I go?

[/ QUOTE ]Good question. You replace fnord on the list. Or you would, except that that's a pretty bold thing to ask if you ARE a wolf.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:21 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Grr.. sorry again but this idea just came into my head:

Durron, why aren't you continuing with the same concilatory, persuasive tone from TTT that you carried over into the turbo where we were wolves together?

[/ QUOTE ]

because traz is pissing me off

[/ QUOTE ]

and i also suck at this game. but i'm not a wolf [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

do you still claim i am one?

Nez477 03-26-2007 02:21 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm apparently one of the only people Traz can't read.. he never clears me as a villager, and is wrong on me again.

I think I was probably wrong on Neil with his posting now... going to reread while playing these tournies and see what I can come up with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chim is likely village.

As is MDoranD, and probably Fnord.

FMXDA is meh-wolfy from his posts today I think.

Neil I'm really undecided on.

Other than that, not much going on.... I voted 8.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:21 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Luckay, durron, fmxda, chim, bluff, fnord, IY, voj

Werewolf? THERE wolf.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where'd I go?

[/ QUOTE ]Good question. You replace fnord on the list. Or you would, except that that's a pretty bold thing to ask if you ARE a wolf.

[/ QUOTE ]

can we just all vote neil now please

shortline99 03-26-2007 02:23 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
With this in mind about type errors, I am confident believing Durron is a villager.

Neil S 03-26-2007 02:25 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
do you still claim i am one?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. I think you're playing a duplicate of TTT day 1 or 2 here, with me playing the role of (villager) GT1T.

traz 03-26-2007 02:26 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
I'm not even being belligerent or anything, I'm just saying that neil is not a wolf, his wolf list is good, and chim/fnord/bluff are all pretty wolfie right now

Boiler_bd 03-26-2007 02:27 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Shorty I fail to see how type 1 or 2 errors and their severity in economics applies to werewolf. Why is it so bad to call a wolf a villager?

shortline99 03-26-2007 02:27 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
traz, please go find me a game where bluff and chim are not wolfy every day

DustinG 03-26-2007 02:27 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
i wonder, Luckay... who's a villlager today?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just started reading. This made me laugh.
econo while I catch up

durron597 03-26-2007 02:27 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
With this in mind about type errors, I am confident believing Durron is a villager.

[/ QUOTE ]

go jump in a lake

p.s. all my suggestions so far have been caveated that i am often wrong and i may change the read later

that doesn't mean that neil's list isn't, in general, awful

durron597 03-26-2007 02:28 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
traz,

please explain to me what you see wolfy in fnord

chim17 03-26-2007 02:28 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
I'm leaning towards Traz right now for the same reason I leaned towards Bluff in most recent Mish-Mash.

He is definitely leaning on the easy targets here.

I also question FMXDA.

shortline99 03-26-2007 02:29 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
why should i jump in a lake? which lake? i'm not familiar with this road to Eleria.

Mark_K 03-26-2007 02:29 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Grr.. sorry again but this idea just came into my head:

Durron, why aren't you continuing with the same concilatory, persuasive tone from TTT that you carried over into the turbo where we were wolves together?

[/ QUOTE ]

because traz is pissing me off

[/ QUOTE ]

How? What did he post to piss you off? The Chim stuff?

durron597 03-26-2007 02:29 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Shorty I fail to see how type 1 or 2 errors and their severity in economics applies to werewolf. Why is it so bad to call a wolf a villager?

[/ QUOTE ]

in case i didn't say it before, boiler is a villager

BluffBlank 03-26-2007 02:30 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Grr.. sorry again but this idea just came into my head:

Durron, why aren't you continuing with the same concilatory, persuasive tone from TTT that you carried over into the turbo where we were wolves together?

[/ QUOTE ]

because traz is pissing me off

[/ QUOTE ]

and i also suck at this game. but i'm not a wolf [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

do you still claim i am one?

[/ QUOTE ]

this post seems very different from your usual stuff.

you're also agreeing with me.

both things that make you more wolfy.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:30 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm leaning towards Traz right now for the same reason I leaned towards Bluff in most recent Mish-Mash.

He is definitely leaning on the easy targets here.

I also question FMXDA.

[/ QUOTE ]

chim17

you got one right, traz

traz 03-26-2007 02:30 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
fnords tone is super different when he's a wolf. It's like night and day. Thus far, he's using the wolf tone.

Bluff also has a very specific wolf way of talking, but it's really subtle. I don't accuse him of being a wolf every game, far from it.

Chim admittedly is always wolfie lol, but that doesn't really mean he's not a wolf.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:31 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Grr.. sorry again but this idea just came into my head:

Durron, why aren't you continuing with the same concilatory, persuasive tone from TTT that you carried over into the turbo where we were wolves together?

[/ QUOTE ]

because traz is pissing me off

[/ QUOTE ]

How? What did he post to piss you off? The Chim stuff?

[/ QUOTE ]

the fact that he likes neil's list, mostly

traz 03-26-2007 02:31 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Also...I'M the one choosing easy targets?

You guys are picking neil and fmxda. Talk about hypocrisy

dmk 03-26-2007 02:32 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Durron

Ya, I went there.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:32 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
fnords tone is super different when he's a wolf. It's like night and day. Thus far, he's using the wolf tone.

Bluff also has a very specific wolf way of talking, but it's really subtle. I don't accuse him of being a wolf every game, far from it.

Chim admittedly is always wolfie lol, but that doesn't really mean he's not a wolf.

[/ QUOTE ]

traz &amp; chim are both wolves, ship it

fnord might be a wolf but i'm not sure

durron597 03-26-2007 02:32 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fnords tone is super different when he's a wolf. It's like night and day. Thus far, he's using the wolf tone.

Bluff also has a very specific wolf way of talking, but it's really subtle. I don't accuse him of being a wolf every game, far from it.

Chim admittedly is always wolfie lol, but that doesn't really mean he's not a wolf.

[/ QUOTE ]

traz &amp; chim are both wolves, ship it

fnord might be a wolf but i'm not sure

[/ QUOTE ]

i mean just from this one post, fnord's own posts i think are villagery

chim17 03-26-2007 02:33 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
Also...I'M the one choosing easy targets?

You guys are picking neil and fmxda. Talk about hypocrisy

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't I just say I was probably wrong on Neil and then accused you?

You are hardly an easy target.

Traz

fmxda 03-26-2007 02:33 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
Shortline, I would consider the null hypothesis for werewolf to be X is a villager.

durron597 03-26-2007 02:33 PM

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure Vol I: The Road to Eleria
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also...I'M the one choosing easy targets?

You guys are picking neil and fmxda. Talk about hypocrisy

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't I just say I was probably wrong on Neil and then accused you?

You are hardly an easy target.

Traz

[/ QUOTE ]

traz, chim, definitely. both wolves.


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