UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Here's my reasoning...

All we know from the first fight is that Silva is better in the clinch. That's *all* we know. The fight was too short to figure out anything else.

Franklin knows to stay out of the clinch this time, and he knows better than to try to tap out a Nogeria black belt from the bottom. To get on top of Silva he's going to need to shoot from the outside, or risk getting in the clinch that killed him last time to get a takedown.

Leaving Franklin the option to strike from the outside. Throw some jabs, try to out-point Silva to a decision, or try to tag him with an overhand for a KO. Silva CAN NOT AFFORD to go to the scorecards. Any close round will likely be scored to Franklin, IMO.

While Silva has a lot more options at his disposal, it is entirely within the realm of possibility for Franklin to walk out with the strap. Especially since the UFC want the strap on him, from a marketing perspective.


I think there's a little value in Silva, but not much.

Thoughts?





BTW, Does anyone else think that Timmmmah as a dog to a striker that has no big wins, and hasn't fought in a year is a gift on a silver platter??

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Anderson Silva > Rich Franklin
Brandon Vera > Tim Sylvia
Eric Schafer vs Stephan Bonnar - cant give a proper estimation
Alan Belcher vs Kalib Starnes - cant give a proper estimation

I think only vera is worth betting here.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anderson Silva > Rich Franklin
Brandon Vera > Tim Sylvia
Eric Schafer vs Stephan Bonnar - cant give a proper estimation
Alan Belcher vs Kalib Starnes - cant give a proper estimation

I think only vera is worth betting here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why exactly do you think vera is worth betting? I'm just curious, I've been mulling over that line for the longest time.

Vera is a multi-dimensional fighter and the blueprint to beating tim has been laid out and vera has all the tools to do it...but is that enough for him to be a 2:1 favorite? Seriously, he's fighting a guy that has an IRON chin, has a HUGE reach advantage, and has way more octagon experiece.

Is it going to be that easy for vera to close the distance and impose his will on the clumsy giant that hits like a freight truck?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

svj,

First off, I highly disagree with this statement:

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Silva CAN NOT AFFORD to go to the scorecards. Any close round will likely be scored to Franklin, IMO.

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Maybe I have more faith in the judges to not be swayed by the crowd, but also 1) Silva has a style that judges like and 2) he holds the belt. I also disagree that the UFC wants the belt on Franklin (or on him more than Silva). Silva has a very fan-friendly, high-action, knockout striking style. Fans like that. I think Anderson can sell lots of PPVs, but the MW division is really weak right now - especially compared to the other 4 divisions at the moment. If Silva gets through Franklin and can get another fight or two against really top caliber opponents, I think he has the look and style to be a really big star. However, I don't really know who the UFC can go out and get that can be a really big fight at that weight.

Unfortunately, I haven't seen Franklin's fight with MacDonald, and I can't remember if I've seen the Okami fight. I know how it went because I read the results, but I'm not sure if I saw it (I think I did). I do know that Rich didn't look like a worldbeater against Yushin, and I have some doubts about his mental state/heart at the moment. I don't like to look too much into small things, but after Anderson knocked out Marquardt, they cut to Rich for about 5 seconds. Rich looks at the camera, gives a fist, and they cut back to Silva in the ring. Rich looks like he wants to stay as far away from the cage as possible. Ace may end up on the same path as Rampage. Lose to Silva in the clinch, get a couple wins under your belt, then lose in pretty remarkable fashion. Rampage "knew better" to stay out of the clinch, but he couldn't (and couldn't again against Shogun). Not saying Rich will fall prey to it again, but it's not for certain that he can avoid it either.

There's a lot to like about Anderson in this fight. Since his lost to Diaju Takase in Pride, he's gone 10 and 2. One loss was a freak flying heel hook from Ryo Chonan and the other is a fluky DQ loss for an up-kick to the head to Yushin Okami. He's looked very good in his 4 UFC fights outside of the Lutter fight (where I believe he was coming off surgery to both knees). He has an iron jaw, legit world class striking, and can competently fight off his back. He doesn't look like the kind of fighter that might get complacent with a belt, as he shows a lot of passion after his wins. I've also read that he has a chip on his shoulder with the UFC for putting this fight on in Ohio again.

I put a small bet on Sylvia too, though I'm gonna feel dirty watching that fight.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

On a side note, Fedor signed with M1 so forget about him facing Randy anytime soon [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

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On a side note, Fedor signed with M1 so forget about him facing Randy anytime soon [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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This has nothing to do with UFC 77 and/or MMA betting, and there are threads in Sporting Events on El Diablo's forum that this is discussed.

It is disappointing, though.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, Fedor signed with M1 so forget about him facing Randy anytime soon [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This has nothing to do with UFC 77 and/or MMA betting, and there are threads in Sporting Events on El Diablo's forum that this is discussed.

It is disappointing, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

were you the same guy who was saying the frank tv thread didn't belong in Sporting Events? if so, do you think you might be able to figure out the point i am making here?

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

I'm a nit about threads staying on topic, big deal.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

Something about getting +150 on Tim seems too good to be true. I know I have to be missing something here.

Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Something about getting +150 on Tim seems too good to be true. I know I have to be missing something here.

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maybe it has to do with the recent trend of multi-dimensional fighters destroying 1-D fighters.